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GAO Issues Report on Iraq | 11 comments (11 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: GAO Issues Report on Iraq (none / 0)

Why do I think the civil war will get worse? Because right now there are real limitations on how organized the factions can get. There are limitations on their firepower and ability to move materials of war. Removing the little security that exists will remove such restrictions.

Meanwhile, we cannot forget that the prize is the largest proven oil reserves in the world, and that is a recipe for almost unlimited struggle. It's hard to have national reconciliation on top of a mountain of black gold.

I am not an expert on Iraq, but I don't except peace there, or democracy, if we leave. That is not a reason to stay, however, if we have no real prospects of preventing the worst. It is a consideration, however.

What bothers me is when I see people saying 'tough shit' about what will happen to Iraq when we leave. Knowingly creating a humanitarian crisis is not something that should be done with a mere shrug of the shoulders.

We should try to figure out some way to avert the worst. But, honestly, I think we've passed the point where the worst can be averted.

At least the GAO is urging them to think things through.

I don't see worrying about the total breakdown of order and mass sectarian killing as some white man's burden. I see it as the burden of the whole international community. I know Bush caused the problem is poorly suited to help fix it. But we are also the only force in the region with the resources to do anything.

In the end, I think we need to draw down our troops and get out, and do it in consultation with the Iraqi government. But I predict that the Iraqi government will dissolve as Sunnis refuse to participate in a parliament that cannot protect them and is complicit in their genocide.

I have no idea how this will all play out in the region.

by BooMan on Thu Jul 13th, 2006 at 01:29:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GAO Issues Report on Iraq (none / 0)

Yes, I agree that it's likely that the Iraqi government will dissolve. I guess where we differ is whether that would be a bad thing, or at least whether it would be a worse thing than prolonging an ineffectual puppet government until it falls later on. Iraq is a fictional state created by Euro/American banditry. I'm not sure why its breakup would be such a terrible event. If Iraqis value the current geography, perhaps being faced with solving the problems on their own will lead them to their own solution.

We are already seeing the inevitable results of enemy occupation: rape and murder by the occupiers will predictably worsen as the occupiers' sense of resentment and entitlement deepens. The consequence will be escalating hatred toward the US and its allies throughout the region and the world. There's nothing in our staying for the US or for the Iraqis that I can see.

When I said "tough shit" I was referring to results the US would not like: a country and region more unstable and hostile than it was before we interfered, "loss" of control over oil resources, increased attractiveness of terrorist entities worldwide. As far as I'm concerned we deserve whatever blowback our self-righteous idiocy brings. For the Iraqis, I don't see how the shit we deposited there can get much tougher. Now the time is coming for us to pay for our little adventure, and it probably won't be pretty.

I already said what I think is the obvious best move for all concerned. It won't happen, not because of failure to "think things through", but because the interests of the perpetrators are at odds with the interests of both the Iraqi people and the American nation. If we want to fix things, let's develop the humility for once to start in our homeland.

Bush is "the first President to admit to an impeachable offense." --Former Nixon counsel John Dean

by DaveW on Thu Jul 13th, 2006 at 02:10:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

GAO Issues Report on Iraq | 11 comments (11 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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