Booman Tribune ~ Comments ~ Putin Sticks Finger in Neo-Cons' Eye

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Putin Sticks Finger in Neo-Cons' Eye | 25 comments (25 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Geez (none / 0)

If Israel does, are we not obliged to stop by and join in the fun?

by poemless on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 03:28:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 0)

no. Because it will just be a bombing raid. It will probably start a fairly high level war of asymmetry and we'll get involved with that, but it won't mean that we are openly at war. Of course, a lot depends on how Iran reacts.

by BooMan on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 04:05:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 1)

Iranian ambassador to Charlie Rose, around 2003 or 4.

"WE WILL DEFEND OURSELVES!"

Does anyone really believe that the Iranians are just going to sit there and allow their country to be bombed? Israel is within range of Iranian medium range missiles.

Arrogance. It is just arrogance.

by shergald on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 04:34:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 1)

Considering how Iran reacted when Iraq tried to invade back in the 80s, anyone who thinks that Iran is just going to sit there and get bombed is an idiot.

Israel attacking Iran, though - the more I think about it the less likely it seems. If the US were to attack Iran, Iran would have very little capability to hit back directly. They could mess with us in Iraq, they could mess with us in Afghanistan, but they couldn't really hit our population centers. They COULD attack Israel as a proxy, but that would probably do them more harm than help in the area of world opinion (Jordan, among others, would probably not look to kindly on Iran lobbing bombs at Israel if Israel wasn't the instigator. And even China would probably have a tough time defending Iran from UN involvment if they attacked Israel unprovoked).

OTOH - if Israel were to attack Iran directly, that all goes away. It becomes a regional war where everyone in the Middle East is expected to "pick a side". And don't worry about the US, because Russia will keep the US in check for a good long while (they still CAN hit our major population centers, after all). We're back to MAD, but 21st century style MAD.

Thinking about it - it really was a much bigger mistake than I thought originally for Bush to go around spouting off about building missile defense systems in Eastern Europe before asking Putin what he thought about the idea. A really, really big mistake. I mean, I knew it was a lousy idea, but it's shaping up to be well within the top five worst ideas that Bush has had while in office. Depending on how things turn out, it may even end up cracking into the top two or three (Iraq will probably be numero uno, though, unless he does something REALLY stupid in the next year).

by nonynony on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 05:22:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 0)

Israel just bombed Syria and no one said a thing. They bombed Iraq in 1981 and nothing happened. Russia won't do shit.

by BooMan on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 07:18:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 0)

So you're saying you don't think Iran will hit back? 'Cause thats the only reason nothing has happened right now in Syria and nothing happened in Iraq in '81 - neither of them hit back.

That may be the case. If Iran thinks that Russia won't do shit they may not hit back. On the other hand, the dynamic of the Middle East is looking a whole lot different than it did in '81. And Syria didn't have anyone saying they were watching their back when they got hit by Israel the other week.

I can understand why Syria isn't hitting back - they've got a weak hand and they know it. Iran - I'm not so sure anymore. Time will tell, I suppose.

by nonynony on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 09:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 0)

Iran will strike back. Count on it. They haven't been buying all those advanced anti-ship and anti-aircraft missile systems from the Russians and the Chinese just so they can throw up their hands and let them be bombed before they are used.

---Cthulhu for President: Why vote for the lesser evil?

by eodell (eodell at naqada dot org) on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 10:13:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Geez (none / 1)

The Russians don't give a damn about Syria. It has no strategic significance in the post-Soviet era, much as Israel is irrelevant to US interests now (though Washington seems to be slower to catch on to Israel's irrelevance than Moscow has been to recognize Syria's irrelevance.) Iraq was never much more than an military customer. Iran is central to Russian ambitions in the region. The same could be said of China, to a somewhat lesser degree, and it would not be the first time that Russia and China set aside their mutual antipathy to close ranks in the face of the United States.

The really dangerous misconception that I think a lot of Americans have is that this war is primarily an American concern, when it is in fact a major concern for the other three great powers: Russia, China, and the EU. All of them stand to profit hugely from an American defeat, and the Russians in particular are becoming increasingly bold about exploiting the collapse of American alliances and military and economic power.

---Cthulhu for President: Why vote for the lesser evil?

by eodell (eodell at naqada dot org) on Tue Oct 16th, 2007 at 10:11:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Putin Sticks Finger in Neo-Cons' Eye | 25 comments (25 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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