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Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH | 55 comments (55 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (4.00 / 2)

c'mon ej, it's not just a few bloggers, it's anyone with half a brain. What are exit polls for, after all?

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 01:48:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 1)

Exit polls are primarily so that the hyperventilating bloviators on TV have something to talk about before the results have started to come in.

You know I fully believe that all kinds of electoral malfeasance takes place in our elections, including vote fraud and vote machine hacking. But IMHO the NH primary results are a piss poor place to fight that battle for all kinds of reasons.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 01:53:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (4.00 / 3)

Exit polls in places like the Ukraine are the main safeguard against tampering. That is their great importance, even if the networks here prefer their utility for gender/race/income information.

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 02:33:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

I understand that. I was being semi tongue-in-cheek with that response, since it appears to be all exit polls are used for here.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 02:38:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

Andrew Kohut, who is the father of one of my high school friends, thinks it is straight up racism by lower class whites who refused to respond to pollsters (or lied).

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 02:54:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

This is off topic - but having the argument over whether it was racism or the womens vote seems to benefit Hillary. Either she is the better candidate because more woman will vote for her or she's the better candidate because racists won't vote for Obama.

Do you know if this guy is for real - is he an impartial observer? Could this be a planted issue by the Clinton campaign?

by maryb2004 on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 03:06:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 1)

he runs Pew Research. He is a reputable guy, but you can see how hard you have to press to avoid an hypothesis that the vote count was wrong. If it wan't racism, Kohut has nothing.

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 03:46:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

No I don't have to press hard at all. He's trying to explain why the pollsters got it wrong not that the vote was wrong.

Let's say NH goes to the time and expense of a recount and it shows, as it did with Nader, that there is no significant difference between the recount and the election night count. Sure that gives us more faith that NH's votes were counted (not a bad thing) but it doesn't explain why the pre-voting polls were wrong. And there is no way to prove or disprove his theory because you can't go back to all the people that refused to answer the pollsters questions and ask "are you racist?"

In the meantime it's out there to be used by the Hillary camp.

by maryb2004 on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:12:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 1)

but he has no other theory.

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:21:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

What does that have to do with the vote count being wrong? His theory is on why the pollsters got it wrong.

And just because he doesn't write about other theories doesn't mean there aren't other theories out there.

by maryb2004 on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:26:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (4.00 / 2)

He tackles all the other theories going around, debunks them and concludes:

In New Hampshire, the ballots are still warm, so it's hard to pinpoint the exact cause for the primary poll flop. But given the dearth of obvious explanations, serious consideration has to be given to the difficulties that race and class present to survey methodology.

Yet, if racism isn't the answer, since he has already debunked a late surge, or the impact of large turnout, or gender voting, or polling methodology, only one thing remains. And that is that he polls were not wrong. But, of course, that is the possibility that must never be broached.

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:34:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

You broached that possibility. I and others disagreed with you. So never say never.

It's a theory of why the polls were wrong. It's a theory based on race and class of people who did not answer the pollster. He could be right. He could be wrong. He could, for all I know be partially right, and everyone who didn't answer was poor and racist but were mostly women and would have voted for Hillary even if Obama wasn't on the ballot. It cannot be proved either way because we can't go back and ask the people who didn't answer.

by maryb2004 on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:47:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (4.00 / 3)

It can be proved one way. Count the votes.

by BooMan on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:55:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

And if the votes tally - it isn't proved. And if the votes don't tally it isn't necessarily proved either because you won't know who cast what ballot. So it can't be proved that way.

You're obsessed ... bye.

by maryb2004 on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 05:05:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 1)

If the votes don't tally, we have another explanation for why the polls were wrong, and the racism hypothesis is superfluous and dropped because of Occam.

by bento on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 11:03:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 1)

If this is true, it should make the nation proud of Iowans by comparison who actually stood up publicly and cast their votes for Obama.

by RollaMO on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 04:06:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH (none / 0)

Why does Kohut think lower class whites are more likely to lie about racism that wealthier whites. My experience in precinct works teaches me otherwise.

by AliceDem on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 07:14:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why We Should Do a Hand Recount in NH | 55 comments (55 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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