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Popular Vote Prediction | 20 comments (20 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

It amazes me that people are even responding to this bullshit argument about how we should decide this on Popular Vote. It is a delegate contest. Otherwise no state would do a caucus. But good analysis of it anyway.

O/T but I was just over at Ben Smith's Blog and he provides the audio to what is clearly a push-poll by the Clintons in North Carolina and surprisingly, he doesn't identify it as such. He just points out that it's interesting to him that the Clintons (or whoever sponsored the "poll") would ask at the end of the "poll" if Hillary has any chance of winning.

by RandyH on Thu Apr 24th, 2008 at 07:25:30 PM EST

The reason I take it seriously is because it is a vacuous argument that is being used to keep this contest going.

I understand if Jon Corzine thinks the popular vote is a valid measure. I mean, if it were totally tied to the pledged delegates then there would be no need or role for superdelegates at all. They'd would just rubberstamp the outcome in pledged delegates.

The problem is that Clinton has no realistic hope of winning the popular vote.

by BooMan on Thu Apr 24th, 2008 at 07:30:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's an argument that will be treated seriously by the press if she does win the popular vote. So, yes, you're right. It needs to be pointed out that she will not.

Where's Robert Byrd, by the way? He's God in West Virginia. If Obama could snag him, he might have a chance to get into the mid- to high-40s there.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Apr 24th, 2008 at 07:36:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Some corrections (none / 0)

I think you underestimate the Indiana vote. It's an open primary and the turnout will be higher than you're predicting. So if she has that percentage lead then that's more votes. In Pa the estimate was only for 1.4 to 1.8 votes, there was 2.3 million votes.
You give both a very high estimate in NC and give him 20 points. I don't think the point spread will be 20 points because unlike Feb the clinton people will actually work NC....Obama had those blowouts in Feb because the clinton campaign barely contested those states.
While you've corrected for the very high traditional Puerto Rico turnout, I think her margin there will be greater than 10%. So those could be much higher numbers and generate anywhere from 150000 to 400000 votes at the high end.
You may have given Ky ans W. Va more votes than they might get. But the excess there compared to jay cost at Real clear politicis and his nifty little vote manipulation algorithm is giving her an excess of 130, 000 votes while he only gives Obama a lead of 118,000 vote in NC not 360,000 votes.

So using his estimates and not yours...the 10,000 vote lead turns into a 50,000 vote loss.

For those who want to play with it, it's below

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/chooseyourown.html

debcoop

by debcoop on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 08:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Using Joy Cost's calculator, I generated a 215,000 point vote margin for Hillary Clinton...in which I use the last option he has....

Count florida, count the washington primary not the coucus, estimte all the caucus states, and do what Chirs bowers did and give Obama the exit poll percntage of the uncommitted vote.

Disallowing him the Michigan uncommited gives her a 490000 vote lead...but uses all the caucus estimates.

She can win the popular vote.

debcoop

by debcoop on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 08:32:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

can you give us the percentages and turnout you used?

And please, don't start counting meaningless primaries instead of caucuses. I don't care who it favors. Just stick to the 110,000 estimate from RCP and leave it at that.

Put Florida in if you want, and Michigan based on exit polls if you want.

Although I think the territories, including Puerto Rico, are on iffy ground in the popular vote argument, you can use though too.

I can't Hillary closer than 10,000 votes using those assumptions. And that's only if 2 million people vote in PR and she wins it by 10 points.

by BooMan on Fri Apr 25th, 2008 at 08:43:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

On the push poll, I think Smith is right to note that with interest, as they might be trying to gauge whether or not her base of support is crumbling at all under the pressure of Obama's lead. I maintain that the $10m night of fundraising is a complete crock of shit, unless the Clintons decided to lend themselves several million. They may be concerned.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Thu Apr 24th, 2008 at 07:34:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Popular Vote Prediction | 20 comments (20 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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