One good strategy would be for Democrats to pay more attention to the position of Secretary of State in the various states.  That's where control of the electoral machinery lies, and the best way to stop the GOP from engaging in any skullduggery is to command that office.

This is going to be a campaign like none other before.  I mean, hasn't it been already?

I'm sure the Obama campaign will begin with an electoral vote strategy, and adjust it as information comes in during the campaign.  But I highly doubt that his v.p. choice is going to have much to do with states or military experience. He's going to pick a partner, a true running mate.

"The end of all intelligent analysis is to clear the way for synthesis." H.G. Wells "It's not dark yet, but it's getting there." Bob Dylan

q.v. WaPo

There are some people who simply can not be reached - I pray that Obama's team doesn't waste a VP pick on someone who appeals to a small constituency that won't vote for him anyway.

The Underground Railroad

Might want to add North Dakota to the "go fishing " column - he's doing extremely well in polls there.

Obama's got a great chance of winning Iowa and Colorado, unless he screws up tremendously he's in prime position to win those two states. I like the sound of Tim Kaine myself, from what I saw of Strickland on the campaign trail he doesn't seem like someone who Obama would work well with. Obama should really push the 50-state registration strategy, that coupled with his strength in the West..Howard Dean must be creaming his pants.

No way on Bill Nelson as VP.  He has consistently been one of the worst of the right-wing Democrats.

Have you thought about Gov Schweitzer of Montana? He'll be quite a bit of help in the West and while he's a conservative Democrat, he's strong on civil liberties.

Chuck Hegel would definitely be out of the box thinking and would be an unbeatable ticket in my view. He's very critical of the war and is good on foreign policy in general. He would attract a lot of independents and disenchanted republicans.

Also, both Schweitzer (due to his anti "real ID" stance) and Hegel appeal to Ron Paul republicans, who might make up 5% of the electorate an could swing the election.

My biggest fear is that he'll be bullied into picking Hillary for veep.

I think Obama's best strategy is Dean's strategy: hit McCain everywhere at once. He beat Hillary in part by forcing her to spend herself dry on States that should've been in the bag. Why can't he do the same to McCain?

Kill because somebody was killed. Get killed because he killed. Do you think peace will ever come like that?

I think you're being too generous to McCain here, Boo.  VA and NC are virtually tied right now, according to Ras's latest polls.  And that comes after Pastorgate, so I'll bet we could see some strong upward movement for O once this nomination fight is over.  Add Kaine to the ticket, and you might well have Virginia easier than expected.  NC is going to be close, I think.

Ditch Webb from your list, though.  He's not very popular here (47% Approve, 45% Disapprove).  Kaine's approval is 57%, with a disapproval in the mid-30s.  It's not even close.

My honest opinion is that the Kerry states will move our way once it becomes open season on McCain.

In any event, I concur with your take on Iowa, New Mexico, Nevada, and Colorado.  There's your majority in the electoral college, quick and dirty.  Obama's leading in three of the four right now, with the only holdout being Nevada.  Nevada will cancel out New Hampshire, if McCain grabs it.

I think we have a good shot at churning enough votes out of the cities to take Missouri.

Texas may be my Big Surprise call.  Throw South Carolina on, too, because the last poll from back in late-February had McCain up by only three points.

And don't ignore the potential for an upset in Georgia if Bob Barr gets off the ground.

The real point is that a lot looks as though it can open up.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

The V.P. pick should be an ex-military man, to cancel out McCain's alleged expertise in national security. Also, it should be an ex-military man who has not gone into politics, so as not to undermine Obama's message that he represents change.

Aside from General Anthony Zinni, a good candidate is Admiral William Fallon, whom Bush fired recently as commander of Central Command for not being on board with an attack on Iran.

"Israel is a good friend of Israel." -- Barack Obama. Is that a Freudian slip indicating that Obama suspects that Israel is not a good friend of the US?

I draw my strategy based on the numbers at fivethirtyeight.com (Poblano's excellent site). On the left side you see the likelihood that Obama would win the election in that state if it were held today.

Based on these numbers he's rock solid in New England (except for New Hampshire), the mid-Atlantic, the North Central states and the Weat Coast, plus he wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico. The currently red states that he has the best chance of winning are, in rough descending order of likelihood, Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, North Dakota, Alaska, New Hampshire, Florida, North Carolina, Nebraska and Montana.

Now if it were me stratergizing, I would work to shore up the states where it looks like I'm weakest (MI, PA, WI, CO, NM, NV) and put time and effort into trying to win at least Ohio and Indiana, with VA, FL and NC right behind. None of the others have more than 5 electoral votes and all together they have about as many electoral votes as Ohio all by itself.

Certainly that's not to say he should abandon the 50 State Strategy. There could be some nice downticket rewards in that strategy. But I think that's where he should put most of his time and effort.

I'm doing a panel on Blogs and the Media at VCon, Oct 4, Vancouver BC

Since Obama doesn't, the VP should speak fluent Spanish. This is more important than some of you in the east realize.

I'm voting for Sebelius--management experience, woman (for those older women who "waited all their lives,"), and not only Kansas but Ohio, where her name is very well known and her family has rich connections.

Obama has already hinted: He's not looking for foreign policy experience, but domestic expertise. That also puts New Mexico and Richardson at the top of the list. I can throw out a dozen arguments for Richardson, chiefly for his experience as Secretary of Energy.

Both of these governors are term limited, so it's a net gain all the way.

Michaela

I think the first requirement in a veep candidate is that he/she can take a verbal punch and, if knocked down, can get up swinging.  You just know the republican attack dogs are going to hurl bucket loads of shit. So, the democratic ticket must be able to withstand these blows while it throws its own hard shots.

When the lies come, and they will come - just ask Kerry about swiftboating or Gore about the internet - our people must hit back with their own response at once.  It would help if these were prepared ahead of time.  It would also help if the vice-president to-be could bring in some particular voting blocs and had some other useful skills like raising money, organizing campaigns, delivering eloquent speeches.

But fighting ability is prerequisite numero uno.

Republicans suck.

All members of the frog pond are special.

This thread is exactly what needs to be focused on - electoral votes, not overall polling percentages. (See Al Gore, 2000).

A nice interactive site for determining electoral votes is http://www.270towin.com/. I use it to determine strategies.

Right now the best two sites I know of for the current state of the electoral college (according to the state polls) are http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Obama/Maps/May13.html and http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/ (An Obama friendly site). Both sites have Obama currently losing the general due to the electoral college.

As for BooMan's analysis the first part is exactly right - Obama needs to not only "shore up" Kerry states, he needs to get ahead. The latest polls have behind in Wisconsin and Michigan, which are virtual must wins.

To make the general safe, Obama really needs to nab either Ohio or Florida. While BooMan's analysis is right - he can lose both those if he wins Iowa and Colorado, plus either Nevada or New Mexico, this seems a risky strategy to me. Take the odds for winning both IA & CO as calculated by fivethirtyeight (remember, he is an Obama supporter) with either NV or NM thrown in -

IA - 85%
CO - 56%, and
NV - 60%
= 28.6%
(to win all 3 % chance)

Or

IA - 85%
CO - 56%, and
NM - 56%
= 26.7%
(to win all 3 % chance)

I know the Obama campaign is too smart to risk the entire Presidency on winning IA, CO and/or NV and NM, essentially a 1 in 4 chance.

He needs to aim for a state Kerry came up short in.

And that state needs to be Ohio.

I live in Florida, and Obama's chances of winning here are very slight indeed. The Jewish vote - critical to Palm Beach County (where I live) isn't going to support him. McCain has a double digit lead in Florida.

Which brings us to Ohio. Recent polls show a very slight McCain lead here. Hold the Kerry states, tip Ohio, and the Oval Office is Obama's.

That is my strategy.

I think this election is going to be very, very close. Maybe a tidal wave of Obama support will overwhelm McCain, but best to prepare to fight for every last electoral vote. Remember, Kennedy barely won too.

Strickland would not accept an offer from Obama to be VP.  He's solidly behind Clinton, and he does not like the crappy attacks Obama has put out ('Harry and Louise' ads) regarding health care.  So count him out as a VP candidate unless Clinton somehow manages to convince delegates at the DNC to go with her.  Sebelius is also out as a potential VP pick, because her progressive credentials seem to be genuine, and Obama is a corporate Democrat who hasn't seen a corporate-friendly bill he can't vote for.  Brown's is a similar story.  Daschle is a weak old woman who could only hurt Obama going into November because he won't stand up and defend himself or his party against the GOP.

Obama's situation is that he needs a VP candidate who could help him get into the White House, but is weak enough that he won't try to influence the senator supposedly representing Illinois toward a progressive platform.

i like Webb and Sebelius, but Graham sounds intriguing.
Daschle? get real.  wasn't he the congressional version of Barney?

The sleep of reason begets tyrants. -Goya

oooops, i forgot, i like Zinni, too.

The sleep of reason begets tyrants. -Goya

 
There was intense feeling in New Mexico that Kerry's loss was rigged.Various national voting rights organizations called for a vote recount which is an automatic process under the NM constitution. There is a panel that immediately begins the recount process composed of;the Governor, Sec of State, Supreme Court Chief justice. There is no cost to the appellant party and no wiggle room for this board to refuse. Richardson refused, then said the groups had to come up with $300,000 then, when they did that, he raised the bar to over $1,000,000 which was out of the question. This was ultimately found to have totally violated the law at the State Supreme court over a year after the illegal blocking of a recount. Richardson outright and illegally Killed a recount, and now you want him for Obama's running mate? That's some amazing stuff.

I dream about him running with Feingold but that will never happen.

I've been mentioning Hagel for a while.

Add Wesley Clark from Arkansas.

He looks sad to have picked the wrong person.