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Blaming Anyone But Herself | 16 comments (16 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Wisconsin was when I was convinced that Obama would be the nominee. The media knew it too, but they are in the business of getting ratings and selling papers. This year's race has been so closely watched that they tried to make it go as long as they could in order to keep the ad money flowing in at premium rates.

by RandyH on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 10:38:04 AM EST

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

On March 3rd I said this:

Any further campaigning after tomorrow will be nothing more than a 'prolonged squawk'.

Dana Milbank got around to making the same point on May 14th.

Customer: (Takes parrot from cage, bangs its head on counter, lets it drop to floor.) "Now, that's what I call a dead parrot."
Pet-shop owner: "No, he's stunned! . . . You stunned him, just as he was wakin' up! Norwegian blues stun easily, Major."

Seems like and extra two months and two weeks was unnecessary to make the diagnosis.

by BooMan on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 10:44:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Well, on the other hand, I think being in the primary during Pastorgate might have helped to insulate him quite a bit at the time. The Republicans didn't really go after him, and, while Clinton later decided to push it with the superdelegates and in a few interviews, she generally left Obama to deal with it -- likely, in my view, because she figured he might sink himself by saying something very stupid.

So I'm not of the opinion that continuing through Penn was without any benefits. He was able to pull his numbers back up and make it single-digits. His GE numbers came back, too.

Thinking about it that way, the press probably knew it was still over after Penn, but needed Obama to do something unexpected in order to slam the door shut. The photo-finish in Indiana and blowout in NC did that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

There have been huge benefits to having a competitive primary. Mainly, it has allowed the campaigns to boost registration dramatically, and to identify their voters in nearly every county in the country. It's also kept McCain out of the news and inoculated Obama against a lot of attacks.

But let's not kid ourselves that there hasn't been needless damage too. Especially post-Pennsylvania, this has been a matter of diminishing returns. Obama is spending money and time in places where he doesn't need to be spending money and time. And he is having to fight off a sustained attempt to alienate him from Hillary's core supporters and from white rural voters. That's not helpful.

by BooMan on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:56:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

spending money (none / 0)

spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money spending money.

this is this. this is not something else. this is this.

there is no such thing as history. there are only historians.

by S2 on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 12:01:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Oh, I quite agree. I think we're well past the point at which this becomes more damaging than helpful, but I also think we're past the point at which anybody cares about Hillary Clinton. (Note that she's been completely shut out from the Obama vs Bush/McCain fight now.) The only contest, at this point, that might be in doubt is Puerto Rico, and I really don't think anybody's going to be paying attention to that.

Obama's going to give his Tuesday speech in Iowa. He's already well past the primaries. And, fortunately, two of the remaining primaries -- Montana and South Dakota -- are in states where he conceivably has a chance to beat McCain. (Both states showed Obama within the MoE last I looked.) Nobody's going to care about Kentucky. So whatever damage Hillary might hope to do is minimal at this point.

I'm simply saying that, on the one big crisis Obama has faced, I think the primaries were helpful. In a one-on-one with St John, I think it's possible Obama would've been hammered much harder, and possible that he would've suffered more damage.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 12:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

The night of the Wisconsin Primary was the night I saw Hillary first get hit by the idea that she was going to lose, when she went out on stage to make her speech in Texas. She had a look on her face while she was greeting the crowd that said, "I can't believe this. I'm going to lose. What do I do?"

It was clear she was in deep shit when she lost Maine so badly, and then when Virginia was called very early. They were really hoping to pull off an upset, but they wound up losing VA by an even wider margin than in Maryland (where the demographics were far more favorable to Obama), and not too far from the slaughter-type loss she had in DC. Then when Wisconsin came out big for Obama, it was clear the race had shifted so heavily that she'd need to be praying for Obama to get hit by a meteorite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:11:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

I knew she was doomed once she lost Connecticut and Missouri on Super Tuesday.

I don't see how Clinton can win the nomination now. I think she still has a chance...she didn't get knocked out...but it's now Obama's race to lose. He's got more money, he's got more mojo, and Clinton doesn't have any more Arkansas or New Yorks left on the schedule. -February 6th, 2008

Also, see my February 6th state-by-state predictions, where I correctly called every state except Rhode Island, where I didn't know who would win.

by BooMan on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:28:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Yeah, I remember that post. I think Chuck Todd (who else?) said something about post-Super Tuesday that night on MSNBC, too, along the lines of "Well, Obama could now run the table on her over the next 11 contests."

I didn't think she was doomed after Super Tuesday. Her only hope was to win the popular vote. But Obama ran up the score so badly on her in mid-sized states -- NC wiped out Penn, I think VA wiped out California, etc -- that it became impossible. She needed to make races like Maine, Wisconsin and Virginia something approaching close. Instead, they turned into awe-inspiring blowouts.

But I maintain that the night of Wisconsin was the night in which Hillary, herself, first "got it".

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:42:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Denial is strong in the Clinton camp.

The numbers in the Potomac Primary were devastating. That's where Obama really exceeded expectations in the delegate counts and put the thing away. Clinton's campaigning in Wisconsin was half-hearted, as she was looking ahead to Texas and Ohio. Remember, on election night of the Potomac Primaries she was in El Paso, which gave her popular vote margin in Texas.

She knew she was going to lose Wisconsin and I don't think it taught her anything. If anything, it was Indiana where I first got the sense that she knew it was over, but that lasted about a day.

by BooMan on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:47:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

The Potomac Primary didn't really exceed expectations for me, mainly because of the fact that, by then, we were already well into the process of getting the idea that polling in the South was really lousy this year. A small voice in the back of my head was whispering "New Hampshire!" when I thought of Virginia, but I was pretty sure it was going to be a pretty big win for Obama, based on demographics and the state's history of having already elected a black governor (a point which I believe is underestimated in talks of the GE, because there's a certain comfort level that I think is achieved already there).

Wisconsin was, I think, the point at which they first got the idea that the math was crushing, and the point at which they really started to entertain the idea that she'd lose. I think Indiana was the point at which the Clinton camp knew it had forever lost its last hope, the narrative. It was an all-out effort to say that she was surging, that Obama was reeling from Wright's second blowup, etc. Her only hope was to keep that narrative of "Doubts About Obama" alive. When that failed so spectacularly in Indiana, it was too obvious for the press to ignore any longer.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 12:00:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blaming Anyone But Herself | 16 comments (16 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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