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Blaming Anyone But Herself | 16 comments (16 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

The night of the Wisconsin Primary was the night I saw Hillary first get hit by the idea that she was going to lose, when she went out on stage to make her speech in Texas. She had a look on her face while she was greeting the crowd that said, "I can't believe this. I'm going to lose. What do I do?"

It was clear she was in deep shit when she lost Maine so badly, and then when Virginia was called very early. They were really hoping to pull off an upset, but they wound up losing VA by an even wider margin than in Maryland (where the demographics were far more favorable to Obama), and not too far from the slaughter-type loss she had in DC. Then when Wisconsin came out big for Obama, it was clear the race had shifted so heavily that she'd need to be praying for Obama to get hit by a meteorite.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:11:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

I knew she was doomed once she lost Connecticut and Missouri on Super Tuesday.

I don't see how Clinton can win the nomination now. I think she still has a chance...she didn't get knocked out...but it's now Obama's race to lose. He's got more money, he's got more mojo, and Clinton doesn't have any more Arkansas or New Yorks left on the schedule. -February 6th, 2008

Also, see my February 6th state-by-state predictions, where I correctly called every state except Rhode Island, where I didn't know who would win.

by BooMan on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:28:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Yeah, I remember that post. I think Chuck Todd (who else?) said something about post-Super Tuesday that night on MSNBC, too, along the lines of "Well, Obama could now run the table on her over the next 11 contests."

I didn't think she was doomed after Super Tuesday. Her only hope was to win the popular vote. But Obama ran up the score so badly on her in mid-sized states -- NC wiped out Penn, I think VA wiped out California, etc -- that it became impossible. She needed to make races like Maine, Wisconsin and Virginia something approaching close. Instead, they turned into awe-inspiring blowouts.

But I maintain that the night of Wisconsin was the night in which Hillary, herself, first "got it".

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:42:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

Denial is strong in the Clinton camp.

The numbers in the Potomac Primary were devastating. That's where Obama really exceeded expectations in the delegate counts and put the thing away. Clinton's campaigning in Wisconsin was half-hearted, as she was looking ahead to Texas and Ohio. Remember, on election night of the Potomac Primaries she was in El Paso, which gave her popular vote margin in Texas.

She knew she was going to lose Wisconsin and I don't think it taught her anything. If anything, it was Indiana where I first got the sense that she knew it was over, but that lasted about a day.

by BooMan on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 11:47:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Blaming Anyone But Herself (none / 0)

The Potomac Primary didn't really exceed expectations for me, mainly because of the fact that, by then, we were already well into the process of getting the idea that polling in the South was really lousy this year. A small voice in the back of my head was whispering "New Hampshire!" when I thought of Virginia, but I was pretty sure it was going to be a pretty big win for Obama, based on demographics and the state's history of having already elected a black governor (a point which I believe is underestimated in talks of the GE, because there's a certain comfort level that I think is achieved already there).

Wisconsin was, I think, the point at which they first got the idea that the math was crushing, and the point at which they really started to entertain the idea that she'd lose. I think Indiana was the point at which the Clinton camp knew it had forever lost its last hope, the narrative. It was an all-out effort to say that she was surging, that Obama was reeling from Wright's second blowup, etc. Her only hope was to keep that narrative of "Doubts About Obama" alive. When that failed so spectacularly in Indiana, it was too obvious for the press to ignore any longer.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat May 17th, 2008 at 12:00:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blaming Anyone But Herself | 16 comments (16 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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