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Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left | 53 comments (53 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (4.00 / 3)

If we back down it will be because this is ultimately in the Russian sphere of influence and we have no better options given the risk of nuclear conflict.

That's exactly what's going to happen. Neither your post nor the Washington Post op-ed are serious analysis. Both are nothing more than expressions of cognitive dissonance, dissonance between the conceit of the foreign policy elite, which you share, that America is the ruler of the world, and the reality that no single country can rule the world.

The four "actions" that the op-ed proposes at the end amount to nothing more than pathetic posturing. The US can do nothing because (1) it is part of the genetic code of the modern world that one nuclear superpower does not get involved in a war with another; (2) Europe needs Russia's oil and gas; (3) Russia is a permanent member of the Security Council.

This should be a learning experience for the West. What we are now seeing is the initial response when one is presented with a fact that contradicts one's preconceived notions: denial.

As for domestic politics, which seems to be your practical concern, I don't see this affecting the election much. The American public has been mainlined on the war on terror to such an extent that I don't think there's enough time to get the public (as opposed to you and the foreign policy elite who are into cogitating about the "grand game") hysterical about Russia.

Change we can't believe in. No we can't!

by Alexander on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 01:23:42 PM EST

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 0)

A couple of sources are now reporting that the Russian took and occupied Gori. Fog of war? I don't know.

by BooMan on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 01:26:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 1)

I see. I was worried that there might be something to those rumors about Gori when I read last night that an Independent reporter was wondering where the Russian troops had gone that he was expecting to see in Tskhinvali.

I of course agree with you that a Russian occupation of Georgia would be a major problem. But I still think the Russians are too wily for that. The only reasons for why the Russians would take territory in Georgia proper that I can think of is that they want to (1) instil a deep feeling of defeat in the Georgian people; (2) get into a position from which they can make "concessions", while still keeping the two breakaway regions; (3) destroy military equipment more carefully than by simply bombing from the air.

If the Russians depose Saakashvili by means of an invasion and occupation, that would of course be a huge blunder and overreach. I think that Putin is clever enough to know that what has happened so far has done enough damage to Saakashvili. But then, maybe he's thinking of the first Gulf war, and Bush the Elder keeping Hussein in power?

I really can't imagine that the Russians would engage in a sustained occupation of Georgia, given their experience in Afghanistan. I hope that what they're doing is playing mind games with the rest of the world.

Change we can't believe in. No we can't!

by Alexander on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 01:59:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No Russian Troops in Gori (4.00 / 2)

Russia Denies Occupying Georgian City of Gori -Interfax

MOSCOW (AFP)--Russia's defense ministry denied a Georgian claim that Russian forces had occupied the Georgian city of Gori, the Interfax news agency reported.

"Troops have not occupied the city of Gori. This information does not correspond to reality," an unnamed Russian defense military spokesman told the agency.

Rumors have been flying in Tiblisi as refugees fled the city of Gori due to ... Georgian rumors. Local media are reporting false news in an attempt to get intervention from NATO/EU countries and the unfounded comparison with Hungary 1956.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 02:22:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No Russian Troops in Gori (none / 1)

From the BBC website:

"This is a total onslaught," Georgia's National Security Council secretary Alexander Lomaia told the AFP news agency, adding that Georgian troops were pulling back to defend Tbilisi.

Russia's defence ministry quickly issued a statement rejecting the claim, saying there were none of its troops in Gori.

Later, a spokesman for the Georgian interior ministry told the BBC that there had never been Russian troops in Gori.

He said the Russian Army had taken up a position just outside the town after destroying a military base and admitted the Georgian army had fled the area without putting up a fight.

+++

As Grandpappy Amos said, "Showin' is better than tellin'."

by Bob In Pacifica on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 06:13:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 0)

I'm confused. The Russians occupied Georgia from 1921 to 1992. Stalin came from Gori. I don't think there is any parallel to Afghanistan. Chechnya might be a better comparison. I'd expect some resistance from the Georgian people to a resumption of outright Russian vassalage. But I would not expect anything on the order of Chechnya or Afghanistan. In any case, Russia would be satisfied with a pro-Russian government. They'd probably 'pull-out' in the same way that we pulled-out of Panama.

by BooMan on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 02:04:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 0)

Yes, Afghanistan is one of the worst countries to occupy. I just meant that I think that the Russians have had their fill of occupying countries. Also, needless to say, occupying Georgia would justify the unfriendly policy of the US to Russia since the collapse of the USSR.

I think saying "The Russians occupied Georgia from 1921 to 1992" isn't quite correct. The Russians annexed Georgia. What they occupied was the countries of central Europe. Saying the Russians occupied Georgia is like saying that we occupy Hawaii today: as I recall, the Hawaiins did not give up their sovereignty voluntarily.

Change we can't believe in. No we can't!

by Alexander on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 02:24:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 1)

Well, I think that's a bit hard on Booman, but as he's a big boy, I'll leave that there. :) I happen to agree with his analysis.

But I don't believe there's one damned thing the foreign policy elite can do about it.

You are absolutely right: this is an expression of cognitive dissonance. At some point, reality intrudes bluster and denial, and they're gonna have to deal with what's real, instead of what they wish to be.

It doesn't matter what's right. It doesn't matter what "we" want. This is a completely amoral. They have a specific goal in mind--and no way to achieve it. Reality is funny that way.

And winter's coming. Just saying.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 01:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 0)

I don't think Alexander actually understands my analysis.

He appears to think I am an advocate for U.S. foreign policy...the forward-leaning basing strategy (the lilypad strategy) and effort to unilaterally control energy resources no matter the cost in blowback and lost legitimacy.

This analysis is based on the reality about the contours of this debate in an election year and the likely actions of our foreign policy elite. It is not an endorsement of those actions and that reality.

However, I have no interest in losing this election to John McCain because we're so stupid as to fall into his trap. I'm just saying...be prepared to be ashamed of your country...again.

by BooMan on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 02:00:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 0)

Yeah, I'm there with you. The sad reality is that "we" cannot countenance a newly resurgent Russia, which is how this is being interpreted by members of the foreign policy establishment.

What is not being said, but what MUST be considered, is what they will do to "stop" Russia, and they are about out of moves. Seven years of engaging our collective mouths before thought has a price.

And to both clarify and emphasize a point: This is a completely amoral point. There are a variety of ways in which we could act, but I don't think these types have gamed it out.

As far as I'm concerned, the question is this: Do we pull back from the brink and find a way to save face, or do we, like a bankrupt prince, keep putting up money and appearances that aren't there?

Everything has a cost. I hope "we" consider carefully.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 02:12:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left (none / 1)

I'm sorry that I didn't read your analysis as carefully as I should have: I have to pack for a trip. I just resented your remarks about the "Left" being "paralyzed with debate over who started this fight", when the "Left", being reality based, is united as far as I can tell in believing that Georgia started it (which is not to say that Russia, being an experienced world power, is not good at provoking other countries when it wants to).

Also, I think you're overreacting. All this complaining that the Americans are doing is just noise. As I said before, American foreign policy tends to be rational, except where Israel is concerned. The US really doesn't have much at stake in Georgia. Russia is not going to touch the oil pipe line there.

Change we can't believe in. No we can't!

by Alexander on Mon Aug 11th, 2008 at 02:43:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Georgia: A Reality Check for the Left | 53 comments (53 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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