Booman Tribune ~ Comments ~ On Afghanistan

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On Afghanistan | 19 comments (19 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

What to do? (none / 0)

The basis of a successful COIN effort, as spelled out in Field Manual 3-24, which I strongly suggest that progressives read and study, is the successful defense of, and cooperation with, an effective "Host Nation." The Host Nation is central to any successful COIN effort.

So the main consideration in Afghanistan is not military, nor militants, nor extremists, but the government of Afghanistan, and we know what that's like.

Some snippets from FM 3-24 (which I again suggest progressives study in its entirety):
---------------------
The primary objective of any COIN operation is to foster development of effective governance by a legitimate government.

Six possible indicators of legitimacy that can be used to analyze threats to stability include the following:
􀁺 The ability to provide security for the populace (including protection from internal and external threats).
􀁺 Selection of leaders at a frequency and in a manner considered just and fair by a substantial majority of the populace.
􀁺 A high level of popular participation in or support for political processes.
􀁺 A culturally acceptable level of corruption.
􀁺 A culturally acceptable level and rate of political, economic, and social development.
􀁺 A high level of regime acceptance by major social institutions.

General Chang Ting-chen of Mao Zedong's central committee once stated that revolutionary war was 80 percent political action and only 20 percent military. Such an assertion is arguable and certainly depends on the insurgency's stage of development; it does, however, capture the fact that political factors have primacy in COIN.
http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-24.pdf
---------
When one focuses on the government angle, and writes like this---
"I really don't know what Obama should do about this. But I think it should end any consideration of committing for the long haul to expanding the power of the central government. Karzai's government is inept, corrupt, illegitimate, and incapable of establishing security throughout the country."
---then the course of action is obvious, isn't it.

by Don Bacon on Sun Nov 1st, 2009 at 03:59:39 PM EST

Re: What to do? (none / 0)

I think those are the reasons I said we should give up on the idea of strengthening the central government. But there is a flip side, too. And that is to look at the insurgency end of things and ask how much legitimacy they have. Where they rule the ground, the rule the ground. But they don't have any kind of nationalistic legitimacy like Ho Chi Minh's armies did. There is nothing inevitable about a resurrection of Taliban rule. It wouldn't be remotely desirable to the vast majority of Afghans. So, the way forward may be somewhere between doubling down on a hopeless Karzai government and abandoning the country to lunatics. Whatever it is, though, it won't fit into an nice box about promoting democracy.

by BooMan on Sun Nov 1st, 2009 at 04:50:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What to do? (none / 0)

With due respect, you're not getting it. There is no "flip side." The legitimacy of the insurgency doesn't matter. The fact that they may be "lunatics", or may be unpopular, doesn't matter. Focus only on the government, or rather the lack of one, and understand that w/o a government COIN won't work and Afghanistan is best left to Afghans.

Since when does an unstable Afghanistan really threaten the US of A? This poor, unstable country is on the opposite side of the earth! And the earth isn't small. Plus it isn't like the US, Britain and Russia, among others, haven't failed at this sort of thing before. At a hundred and seventy million dollars per day it's a lousy gamble and not something that true progressives should countenance.

The US continues to call the Afghanistan effort COIN in spite of the lack of a COIN basis -- an effective Host Nation. I urge progressives to read FM 3-24, the COIN bible recently produced by Saint David of Petraeus. No Host Nation equals no COIN, and regarding a war policy there is no alternative to COIN.

by Don Bacon on Sun Nov 1st, 2009 at 06:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What to do? (none / 0)

Since when? Hmm. Let me think about that. Gee. I can't remember any time our national security was threatened from that region. Oh wait!! I remember. There was that time that a plane flew into the Pentagon, and two others leveled lower Manhattan. A fourth was either headed for Congress, which was in session, or the White House.

That must be some kind of false memory I have formed.

In any case, I'm not talking about a classic counterinsurgency effort and neither is Biden, or really have the people debating what to do right now inside the administration.

by BooMan on Sun Nov 1st, 2009 at 08:18:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What to do? (none / 0)

Yes, it is a false memory. There was no threat to US national security as a result of the nineteen men with box cutters who trained in the US according to a plot hatched in Germany. Are you afraid, very afraid? In any case studies have shown that military operations exacerbate terrorism, not lessen it.

In any case, you are off-topic in refusing a dialogue on the topic which is indeed COIN, and which is now being transformed (yet again) into nation-building, this tine in a nation that won't be built.

Why do you call this a "progressive community", by the way, and not more accurately neo-liberal and pro-Democratic, of the DLC variety?

by Don Bacon on Sun Nov 1st, 2009 at 08:31:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What to do? (none / 0)

I can't really think of a bigger threat to our national security than having someone target the Pentagon and try to decapitate our government while bringing Wall Street to its knees. That kind of defines non-nuclear threats to national security at the highest level.

by BooMan on Mon Nov 2nd, 2009 at 10:20:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What to do? (none / 0)

Remember that the 9/11 Hamburg Cell originally wanted to fight the Russians, but were flipped.

The available evidence indicates that in 1999, Atta, Binalshibh, Shehhi, and Jarrah decided to fight in Chechnya against the Russians. According to Binalshibh, a chance meeting on a train in Germany caused the group to travel to Afghanistan instead.An individual named Khalid al Masri approached Binalshibh and Shehhi (because they were Arabs with beards,Binalshibh thinks) and struck up a conversation about jihad in Chechnya.When they later called Masri and expressed interest in going to Chechnya, he told them to contact Abu Musab in Duisburg, Germany. Abu Musab turned out to be Mohamedou Ould Slahi, a significant al Qaeda operative who, even then, was well known to U.S.and German intelligence,though neither government apparently knew he was operating in Germany in late 1999.When telephoned by Binalshibh and Shehhi, Slahi reportedly invited these promising recruits to come see him in Duisburg.89
Binalshibh, Shehhi, and Jarrah made the trip. When they arrived, Slahi explained that it was difficult to get to Chechnya at that time because many travelers were being detained in Georgia. He recommended they go to Afghanistan instead, where they could train for jihad before traveling onward to Chechnya. Slahi instructed them to obtain Pakistani visas and then return to him for further directions on how to reach Afghanistan.
Although Atta did not attend the meeting, he joined in the plan with the other three. After obtaining the necessary visas, they received Slahi's final instructions on how to travel to Karachi and then Quetta, where they were to contact someone named Umar al Masri at the Taliban office.90

They received their indoctrination there (for suicide missions) and only received their pilot training in the United States.

by BooMan on Mon Nov 2nd, 2009 at 10:40:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

On Afghanistan | 19 comments (19 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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