Booman Tribune

US Military Options to the Iranian Proliferation Challenge

by Patrick Lang
Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:19:29 AM EST

On Saturday, I posted "Iran - Stalling For Time":

"Chief Iranian Nuclear Affairs Negotiator Hosein Musavian: The Negotiations with Europe Bought Us Time to Complete the Esfahan UCF Project and the Work on the Centrifuges in Natanz." MEMRI

In this interview the chief Iranian Negotiator in the matter of their nuclear program explains that the protracted process of dealing with the IAEA and the European powers was worthwhile because it enabled Iran to procrastinate in dealing with the West long enough to complete major installation essential to the nuclear program.

Musavian makes it clear that the Iranian government's negotiating strategy was motivated entirely by the tactical necessities required by the determination of the Iranian government to drive the program forward as rapidly as possible.

This interview should largely answer the uncertainty on the part of some people as to whether or not the Iranians could be lured into giving up their nuclear ambitions. - Pat Lang

__________________________________________

Next, from my friend, retired Marine Lt. Col. Dale Davis, who is director of international programs and teaches Arabic at Virginia Military Institute, his assessment -- from a military standpoint -- of the U.S. miliary's options.

Dale -- with whom I have appeared on PBS's Newshour -- posted "US Military Options to the Iranian Proliferation" at my blog, Sic Semper Tyrannis:

Despite the awesome power of the US armed forces, President Bush will find his military options for dealing with Iran tightly constrained by both political and military realities. What will be absolutely impossible to achieve is regime change Iraq – style via invasion and occupation. Even if the bulk of US ground forces were not already committed in Iraq and Afghanistan such an effort would be extremely challenging and without the support of popular forces certain to be violently rejected by the Iranian people.

CONTINUED BELOW:

A limited air campaign would be militarily simple to execute. Iranian air defenses would be easily destroyed. Targets would be designated and struck with precision and force but to what end? The Iranians have had decades to prepare for this most likely of scenarios and have no doubt dispersed, duplicated, and hardened their critical facilities. No air campaign in recent history has ever achieved anything near what the proponents of airpower have claimed. Unless the US is willing to carry out sustained strikes and re-strikes for months and maybe even years there is likely to be little serious damage done to Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

And for the Jacobins in the audience forget the use of airpower as a tool for regime change. Iran is not Kosovo. Even a sustained air campaign would be unlikely to dislodge the Mullahs from power. Any speculation that a popular revolt can be triggered on the “Wings of Eagles” would be seriously mis-informed. The second bombs fall on Isphahan every Iranian will rally to the call of "Allahu Akbar Khomeni Rahbar." Persian nationalism will trump the forces of democracy every time.

Sea-power might be the most effective of the limited tools available. A naval blockade of oil exports could be easily undertaken. Destoying the Iranian tanker fleet and liberating the three islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs along with their associated oil and gas fields would place tremendous economic pressure on the regime.

Regardless of which option is selected, Iran will retaliate by unleashing its tremendous influence amongst its Shi’a proxies in Lebanon, Iraq and Afghanistan. Doesn’t any remember the Spring 04 Shi’a uprisings in Najaf and Kerbala? Imagine it on a much more intense and wide scale.

Dale R. Davis



Display:
Has this administration been played by the Iranians, or what?

And for the Jacobins in the audience forget the use of airpower as a tool for regime change

I read this utterly sensible analysis and think, "yes, any fool can see an air attack would be a big mistake." And then my blood chills, because the neocons don't seem to be fools so much as they are charlatans. They lie, they cheat, they disguise real intentions. Justification is merely the peanut under their shells:  Look here, it's the bomb! No, now it's under this one, it's mideast stability! Oops, it's this one, democracy! Sorry, Suckers! Ha, ha, pay the man!

We can all agree on the folly of an air campaign, but we agreed on the folly of attacking Iraq, too, and they still did it because there was something in it for them. It's as if logic doesn't matter anymore and repeating it amounts to banging our heads against the wall. The only question that seems to matter is the most dangerous one of all:  what's in it for them? If their greed for power, etc., takes over then we are cleared for take off.

My Website

by kansas on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 11:00:52 AM EST
They are pathological liars, always concealing their true agenda, masquerading as patriots who put America's interests first.

But these lunatics are so infatuated with their own agenda, their own ideas and the "rightness" of their cause, that they are only capable of loyalty to themselves. The idea that what they want might not be in America's best interests never occurs to them, and even if it did, they'd ignore it anyway.

The architects of the Iraq war prefer us to see that the rise of Iran's influence in Iraq represents a surprise problem who's magnitude was underestimated by the Bush regime. I believe this is total bullshit. I think Cheney and his cabal of warmonger psychopaths counted on Iran to make big moves vis a vis Iraq, because they wanted to draw Iran into the situation in order to more easily develop a pretext for attacking them.

Remember, these nutcases, (Cheney, Wolfowitz, Perle, Feith, Ledeen), have wanted to destroy Iran since the end of the Carter presidency. They're so close now to being able to do it, (in their own delusional minds anyway), that they will not abandon the effort under any circumstances short of not being able to get the funding appropriated for it. Even the fact that the Israeli nutcase Netyanyahu is probably going to replace Sharon as PM plays into their hands because Netanyahu will quickly undo any and all progress made towards any sort of equitable settlement between Israelis and Palestinians, thereby providing the  impetus for more violence to erupt there, adding to the overall rage sweeping the region.

Denial is our most dangerous adversary.

by sbj on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 04:43:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
If only the neo-cons responded to logic.

Pat Buchanan, with whom I agree on nothing, except Mideast policy, wrote a good column on the ludicrousness of this proposed venture. He makes the point that this is a totally artificial crisis. The Iranians are within their rights to generate nuclear power, just not weapons, and they are about 10 years away from nuclear capability, even if they flout non-proliferation regulations. They pose no immediate threat, so military action is unwarranted, and, at present, illegal. We would be doing this to protect Israel and to prevent Iran from having the deterrent capability of being a nuclear power. And, it will be disastrous.

These people are insane. How many times can they make the same mistake expecting a different result? Do they really think the Iranians will bow to our supreme might if we wage a spectacular air campaign? Do they really think that the people will just rise up against the Mullahs? They will fight us. Not only do we not have the troops for an expanded ground war, we don't have the hardware! As my husband, who works in joint operations for the Marine Corps says, "Everything is broken!"

Unless their goal is to bankrupt the US treasury, cripple our military, and unleash chaos in the Mideast, the neo-cons are failures, many times over.

"I only know that people call me a feminist whenever I express sentiments that differentiate me from a doormat or prostitute." ~ Rebecca West

by Recordkeeper on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 01:10:58 PM EST
Certainly a major part of the neocon agenda here in the US is to loot the economy and place all the wealth in the hands of their friends and big time supporters.

The reason for this is because their ideology has no real use for "democracy". They are addicted to authoritarianism as the preferred system of governance. The "masses" are not "smart enough" to understand the intricacies of such things as foreign policy, legal systems, or economics.

Remember, the neocons started out as "lefties", some Trotskyites, some with a strong appreciation for Leninist philosophy. and "totalitarianism" was a core principle of those belief systems.

So, looting the economy gives them more power over the masses, rather than strengthening the country by empowering the masses themselves.

Denial is our most dangerous adversary.

by sbj on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 04:55:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I imagine the Iranians looked at Iraq, then looked at North Korea and asked themselves, "Who got the better end of this bargain?"

"History is ruthless, and will never flatter anybody." Zhou Enlai
by Other Lisa (redandexpert at that mega-ISP called yahoo.) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 01:31:41 PM EST
George W Bush's bellicose gesturing threatening Iranian Armageddon is very strange. It is like the Capitol Hill Blue's psychotic speculations above are true.

There are no troops available to invade. That leaves a blockade or aerial bombardment. A blockade will skyrocket already high petroleum prices even without any Iranian retaliation. North Korea and Iranian nuclear sites are in harden bunkers.  

The Pentagon has asked Congress to fund development of nuclear bunker buster bombs as an effective replacement of current penetrating bombs that don't work. They failed to mention that the nuclear bombs can't penetrate too far into the rock. They are no different than surface nuclear blasts. Nuclear Bunker Busters: What's the Damage? Conventional bombs will not work to take out the nuclear sites. Atomic bunker busters will kill millions.

The only tools available to threaten Iran and North Korea won't work and will blow back with untold economic and political damage to the USA.

by Jim S on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 03:16:26 PM EST
I guess one can only say that America is caught with their hard on and no place to go...or caught between a rock and a hard place.

Just like the Bush adm  way of doing things.

The whole world is nuts except for you and me and sometimes I wonder about you...as the old saying goes.

What now is there to be done.  Am I wrong when Iran is only going after the bonb cuz Isreal is threatening to them?  Is there more to thsi than meets the eye?

by BrendaStewart (stormyweather1@hotmail.com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:35:38 AM EST
but I have read that Iranian pride is involved here, infinitely complicated by the U.S. policies of GWB.  

  1. Flaunting the nuclear non-proliferation treaty, and developing our own nuclear buster-busting bombs;

  2. Looking the other way / failing to hold anyone accountable as AQ Khan and Pakistan spread nuclear technology to who knows how many corners of the world;

  3. Creating an "Axis of Evil", which has proven in two cases the way to avoid invasion is to develop nuclear weapons (North Korea and Iran.)

The Iranians have also pointed out that it was U.S. policy during the reign of the Shah of Iran (lest it appear that I only blame Bush) to develop nuclear energy, even though they had oil reserves at the time as well.  Iran is no Iraq, though the U.S. population often sells the Iraqi people short when it comes to engineering and technological ability (thank Hussein and sanctions for keeping them back).  Iran is very well-developed technologically, and has a very young, well-educated populace.  Pride and nationalism will push them away from any restrictions on doing whatever they want, compounded by the U.S. no longer being the beacon of moral high ground we once were.  Any attempts to attack them militarily will be responded to quickly and forcefully -- and we have a lot of troops sitting there.  Any movements by Iran against Israel will be met quickly and forcefully, leading to who knows what.

The U.S. policies have made this bed, from propping up the Shah to supporting Hussein in gassing the Iranians.  Now we all get to sleep in it and frankly the sheets are less than 400-count and the bedbugs bite.

Bill Clinton may have had sex with Monica Lewinsky, but he didn't make her Secretary of State!

by Intellectually Curious (intellectually_curious at hotmail dot com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:53:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Add point

4. Providing nuclear technology to a country, (India) who is nuclear armed but who has not signed on to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. (This technology transfer is in direct violation of the NPT).

See the excellent diary on this subject, and on all the other violations of the NPT by the Bush regime at European Tribune by Sirocco here.

Denial is our most dangerous adversary.

by sbj on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 05:05:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I  agree with you entirely, Brenda.  

If I were a Saudi, a Syrian, an Iranian, an Iraqi, etc., etc., I'd be very worried about Israel's nuclear capability.  (It requires a putting one's self in THEIR shoes because -- I guess -- the prevailing opinion in the U.S. is, well, Israel is as rational and sensible as we are, and they'd never do anything irresponsible with a bomb whereas the Iranians -- oh well -- they're a bunch of extremist nutjobs.

(THAT said, I can see why people might be worried about Iran beause of the fundamentalist influences in that government .. although they do seem, sometimes, to be very pragmatic and political.  But, imagine if our U.S. fundies were at the helm -- Pat Robertson, James Dobson et al. were running things in our country -- the world would be scared sh-tless about what they might do with the U.S.'s nuclear weapons.)

BIG PICTURE:  We all need to be very, very worried about nuclear proliferation.  John Kerry said it is the world's number one problem.  We ALL need to get rid of the horrible weapons of mass destruction.  ALL countries.

Hickok: "You know the sound of thunder. Can you imagine that sound if I ask you to? Ma'am, listen to the thunder."

by susanhu (susanhuatearthlinkdotnet) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 10:58:31 AM EST
This discussion reminded me of a C-SPAN2 In-Depth interview with Dr. Helen Caldicott, so I searched the booktv.org site and was pleased to see that this fascinating interview will be replayed this Saturday, and you can watch it anytime.

One of the poignant parts of the interview that I recall was her comment that she felt like her work had been a waste because nuclear proliferation is much worse than when she began. Sad ... but she won't be the first or last prominent activist who won't live to see her work realized.

On Saturday, August 20 at 12:00 pm
In Depth: Dr. Helen Caldicott
Watch
Description: Dr. Helen Caldicott is Book TV's guest on the March edition of In Depth. Dr. Caldicott, named one of the most influential women of the 20th century by the Smithsonian Institution, is the author of five books: "Nuclear Madness" (1979), "Missile Envy" (1984), "If You Love This Planet: A Plan to Heal the Earth" (1992), "A Desperate Passion: An Autobiography" (1996), and "The New Nuclear Danger: George Bush's Military Industrial Complex" (2001; revised 2004). She will appear LIVE on Book TV on March 6, 2005 from Noon-3pm ET. You can join the conversation by calling in during the program or by e-mailing your questions to booktv@c-span.org.

Author Bio: Dr. Helen Caldicott is founder and president of the Nuclear Policy Research Institute (www.nuclearpolicy.org). For over 35 years, Dr. Caldicott has been active in spreading information about the hazards of nuclear weapons and nuclear war. The organization she co-founded in 1978, Physicians for Social Responsibility, was co-recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize in 1985, and a documentary based on a lecture she gave in 1981, on the topic of nuclear war, won the Academy Award for Best Documentary (short) in 1982. Born in Melbourne, Australia in 1938, she currently divides her time between Australia and the U.S. For more information about Helen Caldicott, visit www.helencaldicott.com.



Hickok: "You know the sound of thunder. Can you imagine that sound if I ask you to? Ma'am, listen to the thunder."
by susanhu (susanhuatearthlinkdotnet) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 11:08:25 AM EST
(to take the situation to its logical absurdity) the only military option to respond to Iranian nuclear enrichment is nuclear (or should we say, nucular) preemption?

It is absurd, but given the president we have, it is not as ridiculous as one would like it to be.

By the way, one thing we should keep in mind is that there is no casus belli: the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty explicitly allows nations to pursue the peaceful use of nuclear power. And though one may be skeptical of Iran's intentions, they are not as yet in violation of the NPT.

Soj has posted a very interesting diary on the contradictions of Western nuclear policy, that places this issue in a larger context.

"Blow up the TV. Throw away the Papers." - John Prine

by Dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 11:17:15 AM EST
Sea-power might be the most effective of the limited tools available. A naval blockade of oil exports could be easily undertaken. Destoying the Iranian tanker fleet and liberating the three islands of Abu Musa and the Greater and Lesser Tunbs along with their associated oil and gas fields would place tremendous economic pressure on the regime.

And send the oil price to $200/bl... Not holding my breath for that either.

Thanks for a pointed analysis; I fully agree.

The world's northernmost desert wind.

by Sirocco (sirocco2005 - AT - gmail.com) on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 11:21:51 AM EST
A blockade would force China (and India) to follow through on an implied contingency plan to protect the energy supplies for their own growth.

It would also destabilize Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the rest of New Balkistan, as Iranian trade and intrigue would saturate the old streambeds of the Silk Road.

"C'mon, just do it." Vladimir loves a vacuum. "Remember the Good Old Days? The Red Army and The Greatest Generation sharing occupation of Iran -- just for the duration, of course."

by macdust on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 02:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
IIRC the Iranians have a plethora of hardened and well hidden launch points for silkworm missiles.  Further, I do beleive it was just those munitions which led to a rout of the "Blue" (we) team by the "Red" (they) team in a 2002 simulation.

Furthermore, having been to Iran- I can say that the terrain is very nasty and well suited to defense.

Although I do think there are available proxies for an air supported neutralization of Iran, pretty much everything but the Central Plateau and Mazanderan/Gilan could be split off with air power and limited ground support, again IMHO.

If you seek peace and fulfilment rather than wealth and power you must take up the reins of government or else you will be ruled by tyrants

by Cicero on Tue Aug 16th, 2005 at 06:46:11 PM EST
Exactly right.  Either a blockade or an airstrike would invite retaliation against oil export facilities in the western gulf.  All of the oil from the Persian Gulf flows through literally a few dozen facilities, and they are very vulnerable to air attack (from Silkworms) or sabotage.

I am not a pacifist, but I cannot see any military solution to this problem.

by corncam on Wed Aug 17th, 2005 at 10:16:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]


Display:
Go to: [ Booman Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]
Menu
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password





Find textbooks at Alibris!

NOTE: Overstock bests Amazon's prices and is "blue."

THE BOOKS WITH "BUZZ":
______________

Learn the real story behind the CIA's War on Terror:

The Dark Side: The Inside Story of How the War on Terror Turned Into a War on American Ideals
by Jane Mayer

Read Barack Obama's vision for America:

The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream
by Barack Obama

DaveW recommends:

I Am a Strange Loop
by Douglas Hofstadter

Need some laughs?

I Am America (and So Can You!)
by Stephen Colbert

rae recommends:

Dark Ages America: The Final Phase of Empire
by Morris Berman.

On BooMan’s shelf:

Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln
by Doris Kearns Goodwin

This looks interesting:

Adventure Divas
by Holly Morris

Here’s a good one from
Elizabeth Gilbert:

Eat Pray Love
by Elizabeth Gilbert

"Crash" * Best Motion Picture, Academy Awards * Only $11.79 at Overstock * 2006 SAG Winner, Best Ensemble

Check out
Powell's new section:
NEW FAVORITES

Selected new arrivals at 30% off

Recommended by Indianadem and ejmw:
The Conscience of a Liberal
by Paul Wellstone

From northcountry’s bookshelf:

The New Golden Age:
The Coming Revolution Against
Political Corruption and Economic Chaos
by Ravi Batra

A novel about contractors in Iraq from the woman that runs The Spy That Billed Me:

Outsourced: A Novel
from RJ Hillhouse.


SOTW-120x90
Download Sleeper Cell on iTunes (Better than "24") Download Weeds on iTunes (Hilarious 1/2-hour adult comedy starring Mary-Louise Parker) Download Late Nite with Conan O'Brien on iTunes
John Belushi - SNL
Download South Park on iTunes
Verve Vault

James Hunter - People Gonna Talk:
James Hunter - People Gonna Talk
icon


Great Deals
----- * ^ * -----

Find mystery novels by Nancy Pickard ("Kansas")



Challenging Empire: How People, Governments, and the UN Defy US Power by Phyllis Bennis (interviewed on DN!)


Featured by Keith Olbermann, New (Powell's Sale): Rogue State: A Guide to the World's Only Superpower by William Blum (whose other books merit serious consideration)


"Explosive" State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration
by James Risen


The book the CIA doesn't want you to read: Jawbreaker: The Attack on Bin Laden and Al Qaeda: A Personal Account by the CIA's Key Field Commander
Larry Johnson's review


BT's all-time best seller:

PERMACULTURE:
A Designers' Manual

$79.95 * Sale: $59.95


Unequal Sisters: A Multicultural Reader in U.S. Women's History (Third Edition)


The Undercover Economist: Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, the Poor Are Poor And Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car!


The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl
by Timothy Egan


Green Press Initiative
----- * ^ * -----


Journalistas: 100 Years of the Best Writing and Reporting by Women Journalists by Eleanor Mills * NYT review


Bury Me Standing: the Gypsies & Their Journey


1491: New Revelations of the Americas before Columbus



Brokeback Mountain
by Annie Proulx
----- * ^ * -----
Check out Powell's
"At The Movies"


Imperial Ambitions: Conversations on the Post-9/11 World by Noam Chomsky (Power & Terror: Post 9-11 Talks)


The Price of Privilege:

How Parental Pressure and
Material Advantage Are Creating a Generation of
Disconnected and Unhappy Kids

by Madeline Levine


Save 35-70% on
name brand clothing,
footwear, and outdoor gear
at SierraTradingPost.com

:





We listened to PEN American Center's "State of Emergency" and found 1940s books by Curzio Malaparte only at Alibris. (Selection (MP3) excerpted from "The Skin.")

Alibris - Books You Thought You'd Never Find
Banned Books * Are you a fan of Film Noir, Art House, Documentaries or Hong Kong Action? * Searching for a long-lost children's book or a first printing of Miles Davis' Kind of Blue on vinyl? Find it at Alibris!

:
:
www.Patagonia.com


Listed on BlogShares

© 2009 Booman Tribune