Booman Tribune

Elusive Kill Ratio Larry Johnson - Iraq 160:1 ¶ Vietnam 20:1

by Oui
Sat Jan 7th, 2006 at 06:51:19 AM EST

.
Larry Johnson, first of all for your story, need to get the facts right. Poor math, the Vietnam kill ratio stood at roughly 20:1!

The Elusive Iraqi Tipping Point ◊ Larry Johnson

It is worth recalling that in Vietnam we killed close to 1 million North Vietnamese while we suffered 57,000 fatalities. That was a kill ratio of roughly 200 to 1. Unfortunately, we do not know where this magical tipping point is.

Although our troops and intelligence operatives are killing scores of insurgents (my friend CIA buddy - estimated the kill rate at 160 enemy per each friendly) the insurgents keep coming.

From memory of Vietnam era, the code for kill ratio was a standard 10:1 on the battlefield. Lose one of our own in the jungle, there would be 10 of them! This was a standard multiplication during Vietnam era for U.S. Command or DoD press release. The heavy bombardments above North Vietnam, especially the harbor Haiphong and city of Hanoi, accounted for the rest of the military and civilian deaths of the Vietnamese.

All this said and the correction made for Vietnam, this now creates a problem for your buddy's quote of the Iraqi insurgents' deaths. First off hand, I will declare that just like in Vietnam, all civilian deaths are counted as enemy combatants. A wedding party of 50 persons killed by a precision bomb, really killed perhaps 5 persons belonging to the insurgency.

Read on ...

Taking the ratio of 160:1 as best estimate for Iraq today and the 20:1 as proven fact for Vietnam in the past, this leaves a factor eight unexplained in Iraq. No need to remind the BooTribbers of the onslaught in Fallujah 2x, the heavy toll of civilian deaths at roadblocks and the slaughter in the Euphrates valley still ongoing today.

Using the friendly coalition death numbers U.S. 2,200 plus let's say 2,800 for rest of coalition including Iraqi armed forces for a total of 5,000.

    Kill ratio 160:1 means 800,000 Iraqi insurgents killed to date. (IMO highly unlikely)
    Using kill ratio of Vietnam enemy soldiers 20:1, would define in Iraq 100,000 enemy combatants killed.

Difference of 700,000 would need some explanation!

Pentagon Joint Publication 3-06 ::
Doctrine for Joint Urban Operations - General John P Abizaid

In September 2002 the Pentagon produced Joint Publication 3-06: 'Doctrine for Joint Urban Operations' under the guidance and signature of General John P Abizaid, at that time Director Joint Staff and now overall commander of US forces in Iraq. Appearance of this manual five months before the invasion of Iraq was doubtless coincidental, but it is reasonable to suppose that it was distributed widely during preparation for the war, which had been taking place for most of that year.

    Chapter: Operational Tasks and Considerations, page 88 --

    One of the major areas of consideration in the LOAC is that of targeting. There are few absolutes in targeting, but the application of the general principles applies. Commanders must confirm that targets support military objectives. The following may be considered to be in that category: (1) members of the armed forces having the status of combatants; (2) noncombatants who, lose their protected status by taking a direct part in hostilities; (3) objects that by their nature, location, purpose, or use are either military property, or they contribute to the adversary's war effort, and their destruction provides a military advantage. Although civilians, non-combatants and civilian property, may not be specifically targeted, incidental injury and collateral damage are not unlawful if: caused incident to an attack on a lawful target, and the incidental injury and collateral damage are not excessive in light of the anticipated military advantage from the attack. Targeting issues are important not only in urban combat operations, but also in unconventional situations where an adversary, in violation of the LOAC, may use civilians to mask attacks or as unlawful combatants.

The words 'collateral damage' mean death, but I cannot understand why soldiers refuse to use the word 'death'. If politicians and bureaucrats want to try to deceive themselves and the world by disguising the plain and horrible fact that people die violently and are maimed in war, both by intention and in error, then let them. But soldiers should face reality.

What has happened to the US Army in Iraq?
By Brian Cloughley - 8/19/03
 

"Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it treason."
 

▼▼▼ READ MY DIARY ▼



Display:
larry meant to correct that.  He sent me a note about the extra zero, but it never got changed.
by BooMan on Sat Jan 7th, 2006 at 05:36:28 PM EST
.
I would have left it to a comment, but the article and arguments are left dangling once the correction is made.

The kill ratio is a basic in warfare, it's not my profession, but as soon as I read the kill ratio 160:1 and 200:1 I knew it was not a reality for Vietnam and unlikely for Iraq.

Iraqi Death Toll Above 100,000

The kill ratio of 20:1 is very realistic, that would put the death toll above 100,000 for the combination of insurgents and civilians killed in almost 3 year of Iraq War and occupation. This would be in line with the number of deaths as reported by The Lancet. That's is the most important conclusion of the numbers, Larry Johnson and his CIA buddy as technocrats show no concern for the lives destroyed by this war of choice. A bloody shame and very troublesome for persons in any form of leadership in this nation.

Many innocent persons have died, the Iraqi civilians we don't count! Our own forces don't get the protection they deserve, thus losers on all sides.

  ««  click on pic to enlarge

"Treason doth never prosper: what's the reason?
For if it prosper, none dare call it treason."
 

▼▼▼ READ MY DIARY

by Oui on Sat Jan 7th, 2006 at 08:17:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Where you have a huge military force of a wealthy nation engaged in aggression, invasion, occupation, crimes against humanity against a poor nation with little or no defensive capability.

That is not warfare, it is simply atrocity, and no matter how many victims the brutal horde slaughters, people who are defending their homeland will continue to do so, for generation on generation. Just ask Palestine.

one man's conspiracy is another man's business plan
Blog updated as needed

by DuctapeFatwa (DuctapeFatwa@yahoo.com) on Sat Jan 7th, 2006 at 08:23:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that including civilian deaths in with insurgents goes down better at home as well as making the kill ratio look better.
by observer393 on Sat Jan 7th, 2006 at 11:11:12 PM EST


Display:
Go to: [ Booman Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]
Menu
Login
. Make a new account
. Reset password





Find textbooks at Alibris!

NOTE: Overstock bests Amazon's prices and is "blue."

THE BOOKS WITH "BUZZ":
______________

Senator Edward M. Kennedy tells his extraordinary personal story:

True Compass: A Memoir
by Edward M. Kennedy.

Read Barack Obama's vision for America:

The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream
by Barack Obama

Boran2 and maryb2004 recommend:

The Big Over Easy: A Nursery Crime
by Jasper Fforde

Must-have information for all presidents-and citizens-of the twenty-first century?

Physics for Future Presidents: The Science behind the Headlines
Richard A. Muller

rae recommends:

Dark Ages America: The Final Phase of Empire
by Morris Berman.

On BooMan’s shelf:

Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln
by Doris Kearns Goodwin

This looks interesting:

Adventure Divas
by Holly Morris

Here’s a good one from
Elizabeth Gilbert:

Eat Pray Love
by Elizabeth Gilbert

"Crash" * Best Motion Picture, Academy Awards * Only $11.79 at Overstock * 2006 SAG Winner, Best Ensemble

Check out
Powell's new section:
NEW FAVORITES

Selected new arrivals at 30% off

Recommended by Indianadem and ejmw:
The Conscience of a Liberal
by Paul Wellstone

From northcountry’s bookshelf:

The New Golden Age:
The Coming Revolution Against
Political Corruption and Economic Chaos
by Ravi Batra

A novel about contractors in Iraq from the woman that runs The Spy That Billed Me:

Outsourced: A Novel
from RJ Hillhouse.


Great Deals
----- * ^ * -----

Find mystery novels by Nancy Pickard ("Kansas")



Challenging Empire: How People, Governments, and the UN Defy US Power by Phyllis Bennis (interviewed on DN!)


Featured by Keith Olbermann, New (Powell's Sale): Rogue State: A Guide to the World's Only Superpower by William Blum (whose other books merit serious consideration)


"Explosive" State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration
by James Risen


The book the CIA doesn't want you to read: Jawbreaker: The Attack on Bin Laden and Al Qaeda: A Personal Account by the CIA's Key Field Commander
Larry Johnson's review


BT's all-time best seller:

PERMACULTURE:
A Designers' Manual

$79.95 * Sale: $59.95


Unequal Sisters: A Multicultural Reader in U.S. Women's History (Third Edition)


The Undercover Economist: Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, the Poor Are Poor And Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car!


The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl
by Timothy Egan


Green Press Initiative
----- * ^ * -----


Journalistas: 100 Years of the Best Writing and Reporting by Women Journalists by Eleanor Mills * NYT review


Bury Me Standing: the Gypsies & Their Journey


1491: New Revelations of the Americas before Columbus



Brokeback Mountain
by Annie Proulx
----- * ^ * -----
Check out Powell's
"At The Movies"


Imperial Ambitions: Conversations on the Post-9/11 World by Noam Chomsky (Power & Terror: Post 9-11 Talks)


The Price of Privilege:

How Parental Pressure and
Material Advantage Are Creating a Generation of
Disconnected and Unhappy Kids

by Madeline Levine


Save 35-70% on
name brand clothing,
footwear, and outdoor gear
at SierraTradingPost.com

:





We listened to PEN American Center's "State of Emergency" and found 1940s books by Curzio Malaparte only at Alibris. (Selection (MP3) excerpted from "The Skin.")

Alibris - Books You Thought You'd Never Find
Banned Books * Are you a fan of Film Noir, Art House, Documentaries or Hong Kong Action? * Searching for a long-lost children's book or a first printing of Miles Davis' Kind of Blue on vinyl? Find it at Alibris!

:
:
www.Patagonia.com


Listed on BlogShares

© 2010 Booman Tribune
Yoga in Pottstown
Yoga in Douglassville
Yoga in Morgantown