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North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile

by BooMan
Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 06:52:56 PM EST

At 1:00 AM eastern time, all of North Korea will raise their national flag in anticipation of a great announcement. The anticipated announcement will have something to do with the launching of a new Taepodong 2 missile capable of hitting the United States.

After analyzing satellite images, American officials said they believed that booster rockets were loaded onto a launch pad and fuel tanks fitted to a missile at a site in North Korea's remote east coast. Fueling a missile is generally considered close to an irreversible step, since it is very hard to siphon fuel back out.

I suppose the North Koreans could still be convinced to abort the launch, but it doesn't look good. The Japanese are not pleased with this development and it could further erode their committment to a non-nuclear future.

In Japan, Foreign Minister Taro Aso warned that a miscalculation could result in the missile landing on Japanese territory. "If it is dropped on Japan, it will complicate the story," he told Japanese television today. "It will be regarded as an attack." Mr. Aso later toned down his language, saying, "we will not right away view it as a military act," but he said Japan would seek an immediate meeting of the Security Council if Pyongyang goes ahead with the missile launch...
A test of the missile would ignite a political chain reaction in Japan, the United States and China. The Bush administration might step up financing for missile defense efforts. Japan might increase its missile defense efforts as well, while hard-liners there might even push to reconsider the nation's nuclear weapons options. Both moves would alienate China.

This all contributes the overall hell-in-handbasket flavor of international relations. Hopefully, North Korea will stand down and not give hardliners more excuses to spend billions on missile defense. A launch will do nothing to ease regional relations, nor will it further the interests of peace.

North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile (4.00 / 2)

Until we are ready to eschew our own stockpile of such weapons, we can hardly deny others who want them. We cannot say, "We have a right to these things, but you don't." It is hypocrisy.

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by mrboma on Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 07:12:23 PM EST

No Nukes for ALL (none / 1)

I agree with Mr.Boma

That is why we must shed our blood and tears on nuclear warhead sites here in the States. Why we must close down Livermore and stop working for such companies as my own husband did.

As they say... someone had to drive the trains to the gas chambers... but it didn't make it right.

We must stop nukes. ALL OF THEM.

When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace. - Jimi Hendrix

by Damnit Janet on Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 07:51:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile (none / 1)

Very sane words. Sadly, our government's policies are anything but sane. Instead, practically regardless of party, we'll get politicos who tell us that our nukes defend freedom and make the world safer, whereas everyone else's nukes are dangerous.

The Mahatma X Files. Peace With Attitude.

by James Benjamin (the_bokononist at yahoo dot com) on Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 08:57:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile (none / 0)

It would certainly give the lie to the idea that all our (wasted) defense dollars can't even manage in stealth mode to blow up a missile that is known as to position and supposed intent. No subs off the coast, no smart armed drones? Send in John Bolton Rambo style. Eliminate 2 birds with one stone.

by notthisnorthat on Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 07:38:49 PM EST

This would be suicide (none / 1)

Take out a missile launch site in North Korea, and you'd trigger a war on the peninsula -- with tens of thousands of U.S. troops on the ground there, we'd be in it up to our neck in no time.

Not to mention what such a war would do to South Korea -- Seoul is bare miles from the DMZ, you know -- its economy, the region's economy, the world's economy.

Not an option.

by songbh (songbh, yahoo, you know the drill) on Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 10:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AEGIS Cruiser w/ Patriot Pac-3 could shoot it down (none / 0)

The big secret of the whole Star Wars spending fiasco is we actually do have a solution that could shoot down that North Korean missile right now, and we've had that solution since the Patriot missile was redesigned into the Patriot Pac-3 system in the mid to late 90's.

The key to this is missiles are far easier to hit when they are going up than when they are coming down. They are far slower and they still have this big mucking trail of flaming exhaust to lead a Patriot or Arrow to the target.

The US Navy AEGIS guided missile cruiser have radar systems powerful enough to serve as a targeting system. The US Navy figured out they could place a Patriot PAC-3 or Israeli Arrow lancher at the stern of a ship so that the missle exhaust goes off-ship. They link the Patriot Pac-3 system to the AEGIS, launch the Patriot through the Navy Aegis systems, and it will take out a missile has been just launched.

The Navy Ship has to be fairly close... but there's no place in N. Korea that is all that far from international waters.

"...Dammit, whatever happened to the concept of accountability for catastrophic failure?..." -Al Gore

by afs on Sun Jun 18th, 2006 at 11:18:41 PM EST

Patriot Pac-3 could shoot it down (none / 0)

afs,
could you kindly point me in the direction of data that proves sucsessful tests of of this Patriot Pac-3 system?

"green grass and high tides forever"

by supersoling (colorsplash62@optonline.net) on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 01:58:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Patriot Pac-3 could shoot it down (4.00 / 2)

Here's some links to Patriot Pac-3...

Federation of American Scientist website...

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/dote99/99patriot.htm

http://www.fas.org/spp/starwars/program/patriot.htm

a miltary hardware geek site...

http://www.designation-systems.net/dusrm/app4/pac-3.html

And here's the run down on the AEGIS/Pac-3 intergration (I guess since I last looked the AEGIS and Pac-3 are really integrated. I spotted the story initially when it was in the duct tape and chicken wire stages of early testing)...

"Aegis Ship-Based BMD

Country:         USA
Basing:         Sea
Status:         Testing

Details

Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense (Aegis BMD) will provide an efficient and highly mobile sea-based defense against short- and medium-range ballistic missiles in their midcourse phase.

The system will integrate the U.S. Navy's existing fleet of Aegis cruisers (Ticonderoga class) and Aegis destroyers (Arleigh Burke class) with the Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor currently under development. The system will allow the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to move its defense capabilities close to enemy launch sites, thus providing a critical "layer" to the broader Ballistic Missile Defense System.

At present, each Aegis cruiser and destroyer is outfitted with the Aegis Weapon System--the heart of which is the AN/SPY-1 radar system. AN/SPY-1 sends out beams of electromagnetic energy in all directions, thus allowing Aegis ships to track up to 100 targets simultaneously, while still retaining the ability to counter other air, surface, and submarine threats. AN/SPY-1 will be able to detect ballistic missiles as they rise above the horizon.

Once a hostile missile has been detected, Aegis BMD will launch its Standard Missile-3 interceptor from its MK41 Vertical Launching System (currently deployed on Aegis cruisers and destroyers). An evolution of the SM-2 Block IV interceptor, the SM-3 is a hit-to-kill missile comprised of a three-stage booster with a kill vehicle. As the SM-3 burns through its three stages, its GPS-Aided Inertial Navigation System will set it on an intercept trajectory with the hostile missile. SM-3 will also receive target updates from the Aegis destroyer.

Once close enough to the ballistic missile, the SM-3 will fire its kill vehicle, the Kinetic Warhead (KW), from its nosecone. The KW will immediately begin to search for its target. It will acquire the ballistic missile using a high-resolution seeker, and maintain an accurate trajectory using its internal navigational system. As it closes on its target, the KW will identify the missile's payload, and shift its aimpoint to ensure a lethal hit. When the KW finally slams into the enemy warhead, the kinetic energy of the high velocity impact will ensure complete destruction of the threat.

Since 1999, MDA has conducted five SM-3 flight tests. Four have been successful. The most recent test was on December 11, 2003, when a SM-3 from the Aegis cruiser USS Lake Erie tracked, targeted, and destroyed a short-range target missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility in Kauai, Hawaii. Impact occurred at an altitude of 137 kilometers and a closing speed of approximately 3.7 kilometers per second. The entire operation, from detection to destruction, took four minutes...."

http://www.missilethreat.com/systems/aegis_usa.html

A reminder: The Pac-3 and the AEGIS/Pac-3 integration were authorized during the Clinton Administration. This was NOT part of Bush's Star Wars package. I guess that why this system is reasonable in price, and actually works most of the time in the field.

"...Dammit, whatever happened to the concept of accountability for catastrophic failure?..." -Al Gore

by afs on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 02:25:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Cool. I found video of the tests, too (none / 1)

This is a government site, so I post all the text...

"...Description: January 25, 2002. Successful test involving a planned intercept of an Aries ballistic missile target by a Standard Missile launched from an Aegis Cruiser.

Description: June 15, 2002. Successful test involving a planned intercept of a ballistic missile target by a Standard Missile launched from an Aegis Cruiser.

Description: November 21, 2002. Successful test involving a planned intercept of a ballistic missile target by a Standard Missile launched from an Aegis Cruiser.

Description: Notional animation of test involving a planned intercept of a ballistic missile target by a Standard Missile launched from an Aegis Cruiser.

Description: June 18, 2003. A developmental Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) is launched from the U.S. Navy cruiser, USS Lake Erie (CG-70), in a Missile Defense Agency test, Wednesday, near Kauai, Hawaii. The test was the latest in a series aimed at developing a sea-based defense against short to medium range ballistic missile threats.

Description: December 11, 2003. Flight Mission-6 (FM-6) involved the detection and tracking of an Aries medium-range target missile launched from the Pacific Missile Range Facility (PMRF), Kauai, Hawaii at 8:10am HST (1:10pm EST). Approximately two minutes after target launch, a developmental Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) was launched from the Aegis Ballistic Missile Defense cruiser the USS LAKE ERIE (CG 70). Approximately two minutes later the SM-3 successfully intercepted the target missile with Òhit to killÓ technology, using only the force of the direct collision to destroy the target. This was the fourth successful intercept for Aegis BMD and SM-3.

Description: February 24, 2005. A Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) is launched from the USS Lake Erie (CG 70) in the latest Missile Defense Agency, U.S. Navy test of its sea-based ballistic missile defense program. The SM-3 intercepted a short range ballistic missile target, launched minutes earlier from the Pacific Missile Range Facility, Barking Sands, Kauai, Hawaii. The intercept, the fifth in six attempts, occurred approximately 100 miles from Kauai.

Description: November 17, 2005. This test involved for the first time a "separating" target, meaning that the target warhead separated from its booster rocket requiring the interceptor to distinguish between the body of the missile and the actual warhead. The interceptor missile was launched from the Pearl Harbor-based Aegis cruiser USS Lake Erie (CG 70). The target was intercepted more than 100 miles in space above the Pacific Ocean and 375 miles northwest of Kauai...."

http://www.mda.mil/mdalink/html/video.html#patriot.ANC

It's video link is about 1/3 of the way down the page. And remember... This was Clinton's idea, not Bush's.

"...Dammit, whatever happened to the concept of accountability for catastrophic failure?..." -Al Gore

by afs on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 02:33:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cool. I found video of the tests, too (none / 0)

Thanks afs,
I'll run through this in the morning. It's a lot.
And I think all of this, not these specific systems, but missile defense in general, started with Reagan, not Clinton. As far as tests during Clinton, I remember, though can't remember specific dates, that some, if not many, reports of successful tests, were found to be untrue, or overblown. A huge wasted expenditure, not to mention sense of false security.

In a perfect world I'd like to see every country have a proven missile defense system. Mutually assured defense would render missiles obsolete. If only.

Thanks again.

"green grass and high tides forever"

by supersoling (colorsplash62@optonline.net) on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 02:49:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cool. I found video of the tests, too (none / 0)

I spent some time searching test results for the Patriot Pac-3 missile defense system. What I found was a mixed bag of results. Plenty of failures, including in the current war, where at least one British Tornado was shot down by the Pac-3 system, one F-16 forced to shoot down a Pac-3 with it's own missile when the Pac-3 locked onto it, and another American plane targeted, an F/A 18C, was also shot down by a Pac-3.

I think it's fairly conclusive that the current system is unreliable. Not trying to be contrary here at all. I was just curious what the test record was.

Then I found this picture, which has to explain many of the failures. Note the ductape in the hands of the one technician! LOL No wonder they don't work :o) Sorry, I couldn't resist.

Gulf War II, Patriot Performance

In the current conflict, it appears the Patriot systems have been used mainly against older, slower Iraqi missiles: al Samoud-2s, Ababil-100s, and Silkworms. Only one possible use against a Scud has been reported, and that has not yet been confirmed. According to General Kadish, the head of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA), in a Congressional hearing earlier today, the Patriots "have engaged" nine short-range ballistic missiles, with four of these intercepts using the newer PAC-3 interceptors.
Unfortunately, there have been a number of significant problems. On March 24, one Patriot battery mistakenly fired at a British Tornado fighter plane, killing its two-man crew. The following day, Patriot batteries locked onto a US F-16 fighter plane, forcing it to fire its own missile and take out the Patriot system. Most recently, on April 2, a Patriot battery apparently shot down a US Navy F/A-18C Hornet in southern Iraq.
These problems prompted Loren Thompson of the Lexington Institute, a conservative think tank, to remark, "It looks like the Patriot has gone from a system that couldn't hit anything to a system that is almost dangerous because it will hit anything you aim at, even if it's friendly."

Aerospace Daily & Defense Report

PAC-3 Interceptors Missed Target In Latest Test, U.S. Army Says
By Marc Selinger
11/14/2005 08:58:41 AM
The U.S. Army is investigating why the latest test of the Patriot Advanced Capability-3 (PAC-3) missile system apparently failed to achieve an intercept.
During the Nov. 11 test at White Sands Missile Range, N.M., two PAC-3 missiles were fired about 8 a.m. Mountain time against a legacy Patriot missile modified to represent a short-range ballistic missile target. But preliminary data show that an intercept did not occur, the Army said.

CDI.org-Missile Defense

OT-3 April 25, 2002 No (2 PAC-3's) This test was initially reported as a partial success: it was at first thought that one PAC-3 destroyed another Patriot which was simulating a ballistic missile target, while the other PAC-3, which was to intercept a Storm II ballistic missile target (composed of a Minuteman II second-stage booster and a Pershing II reentry vehicle), failed to launch. However, after studying the data collected, it was announced that the PAC-3 only hit its target and did not destroy it; thus, the test could not be counted as a successful intercept.

DT-9 July 9, 2001 Yes (1 PAC-3); No (1 PAC-3) Problems with the communications bus that links the communications between the missile's guidance processing units and seeker caused the miss. One of two fired PAC-3s hit a remotely piloted F-4 Phantom aircraft emitting radar-jamming signals at long range and low altitude, while the second PAC-3 missed its ballistic missile target. The goal was to see if the PAC-3 could function in an electronic countermeasures environment.

OT-4 May 30, 2002 Yes (1 PAC-3); No (1 PAC-3) This final operational test was supposed to showcase the "ripple firing" doctrine, in which two PAC-3s are launched against one target - a two-stage ballistic missile. One PAC-3 intercepted the target, while the other PAC-3 failed to launch. MDA decided to delay moving PAC-3 into low-rate initial production for a year (it originally was to start in September 2002). Because of the many problems that surfaced in operational testing, follow-on operational testing will be required.

"green grass and high tides forever"

by supersoling (colorsplash62@optonline.net) on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 09:57:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Cool. I found video of the tests, too (none / 1)

Ooops.

Well... let the cards fall where they may.

This type of short/medium range missile defense system doesn't overturn the whole MAD doctrine, so I'm willing to consider it. But if it doesn't work, it doesn't work.

Maybe it needs MORE duct tape. That always works for me ;)

"...Dammit, whatever happened to the concept of accountability for catastrophic failure?..." -Al Gore

by afs on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 02:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I guess Bush will (none / 0)

have to do away with social security or something now so he can further fund that failed missile defence system, after getting everyone paranoid that those evil yellow n.koreans are going to nuke amerika off the map.

by observer393 on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 01:37:06 AM EST

Re: North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile (none / 0)

Isn`t it amazing that with all the trillions of dollars they can "maybe" shoot down a missile way over there. Look, a missile.
Now come back with OBL & we`ll talk.
The axis of evil. Well Iraq is a mess, Iran is now a hands off place [I surely hope], so now it`s North Korea. What a distraction, & at what an opportune time. At some point I think someone is going to make a small error & "IT`S ON"

The difference between theists and atheists is that the atheists don't set the theists on fire for refusing to agree with them.

by KNUCKLEHEAD on Mon Jun 19th, 2006 at 04:55:59 AM EST

North Korea May Fire Long Range Missile | 14 comments (14 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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