Booman Tribune

Zarqawi's Death: Initial Thoughts

by Steven D
Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:11:14 AM EST

If you haven't heard by now, President Bush issued a statement today that a US air strike north of Baghdad is confirmed to have killed Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and several of his associates:

BAGHDAD, Iraq (CNN) -- Terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, the coalition's most wanted man in Iraq, was killed in an airstrike near Baquba, jubilant U.S. and Iraqi authorities announced Thursday. Al-Zarqawi's death gives Iraq a chance to "turn the tide" in the fight against the nation's insurgency, President Bush said at the White House.

"The ideology of terror has lost one of its most visible and aggressive leaders," Bush said. "Zarqawi's death is a severe blow to al Qaeda."

"Special Operations forces, acting on tips and intelligence from Iraqis, confirmed Zarqawi's location and delivered justice to the most wanted terrorist in Iraq," Bush said.

Obviously good news for an administration desperate for something positive to report from Iraq. The question remains, however: Has anything really changed? My initial reaction is that, as with the capture of Saddam Hussein, the various elections and the formation of the new "unity" government in Iraq, not really.

Zarquawi, by all accounts, was hardly the leader behind all factions involved in the insurgency. His group of foreign jihadists was principally involved in various bombing attacks against civilian and US military targets as well as the beheadings of a number of hostages claimed to have been kidnapped by his group. A list of the attacks his group has claimed can be found in this Associated Press report posted online by the Globe and Mail. A cursory glance at the list indicates that while quite ruthless, the number and extent of his actions are dwarfed by the total number of insurgent attacks in Iraq over the years.

(cont.)

The Bush administration has consistently played up Zarqawi's role in the Iraqi insurgency, as can be seen in this summary of previous reports set forth in today's online edition of the Washington Post. Despite official US claims that he was a preeminent figure in the insurgency, many skeptics have long viewed his role as modest, at best. See, for example, this April 2004 report from the Daily Telegraph which described al-Zarqawis role as follows:

Several sources said the importance of Zarqawi, blamed for many of the most spectacular acts of violence in Iraq, has been exaggerated by flawed intelligence and the Bush administration's desire to find "a villain" for the post-invasion mayhem.

US military intelligence agents in Iraq have revealed a series of botched and often tawdry dealings with unreliable sources who, in the words of one source, "told us what we wanted to hear". [...]

"Back home this stuff was gratefully received and formed the basis of policy decisions. We needed a villain, someone identifiable for the public to latch on to, and we got one." [...]

Pentagon estimates have put the number of foreign fighters in the region of 5,000. However, one agent said: "The overwhelming sense from the information we are now getting is that the number of foreign fighters does not exceed several hundred and is perhaps as low as 200. From the information we have gathered we have to conclude that Zarqawi is more myth than man. He isn't in the calibre of what many politicians want to believe he is.

Yet even "myths" have their value. There is no doubt this is a propaganda victory for the White House, and I suspect this will increase Bush's approval rating in the next round of polls. But, in the long run, I fear that this high profile assassination of al-Zarqawi, the Iraqi bogeyman created in large part by the Bush administration's own efforts to define him as the symbolic leader of what is, in reality, a fractured and multipolar insurgency, will mean very little to future stability in Iraq.

It's nice they were able to obtain information from some Iraqi sources (and who those sources were and what motivations they had one can only wonder about at this time) regarding Zarqawi's whereabouts, and that he has been "removed from the game" as it were. Tangible benefits to our troops on the ground, and to the lives of ordinary Iraqis, however are likely to be modest, at best. Shia militias and death squads still roam freely, and every day the bodies of murdered Sunnis are reported. The Iraqi government still exists primarily within the bubble of the American protected "Green Zone" in Baghdad, and has yet to show it can enforce its own edicts throughout the rest of the country in the absence of US military assistance.

Last week, Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki imposed a state of emergency [in Basra] — but to little effect. Violence since then has included a weekend car bombing that left 28 dead and more than 60 injured.

Zarqawi's death will have more value for President Bush and his supporters, than it will for anyone else. That's my view of this "event" as of this morning anyway. A major propaganda victory on the home front, but, as with Saddam's capture, not much else. But who knows, this time I might be proven wrong. I'd certainly like to be.



Display:
My initial reaction to the news that al-Z is dead was, "Again?" He may be dead, but I think we need to wait three days to see if he rises from the dead as he has so often in the past. I've read that his family is doing mourning, so maybe it's real this time.

My Website
by kansas on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:17:45 AM EST
Real or not, I doubt it will mean anything in the end.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt
by Steven D on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:24:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I very much agree with you, I don't think this makes any difference.  It's been 1725 days since W wanted Osama "Dead or Alive" and 1314 days since Mission Accopmlished.

A temporary morale boost for the troops perhaps, but I'd rather see them be greeted at home with open arms from their family and friends and strangers than go through another four years.

--
Albert Yee
Philadelphia, PA
http://dragonballyee.com/blog

by albert (dragonballyeeATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:34:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Good point.  And an excellent story, thanks, Steven.  I've just seen the NYT bureau chief in Baghdad interviewed.  He pointed out the significant differences within the insurgency, and the fact that there had been recent signs that some of the home-grown Iraqi resistance was starting to get sick of Zarqawi because he was another foreigner meddling in their country.

Another significant angle is that nobody in the US-UK-Iraqi Govt is claiming that this will make things any better.  Bush has said "we can expect the terrorists and insurgents to carry on without him." The headline here in Australia is "Terrorism in Iraq 'not over' despite Zarqawi death."  Remember the claims that the will to resist was going to crumble when Saddam was captured?  Perhaps some people are starting to wise up...

by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:57:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I've just seen photos of the body on television, but I'm afraid I didn't know Mr Z well enough to swear to you that it is him.  I guess it must be him.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:37:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Let's hope it wasn't his stunt double.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt
by Steven D on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:43:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And a statement by al-Zarqawi's deputy has heralded his martyrdom.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:45:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
so ... now we can leave?
by snappy on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:42:05 AM EST
Oh yeah??  Well, I just killed the tooth fairy.  What do you think of that?
by BooMan on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:31:53 AM EST
Ha! Yes, his life may be as much a figment as his death.

Will you kill the Straw Man the next time you see him, please? I put Republican arguing points under my pillow, but he never leaves me anything in the morning.

My Website

by kansas on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:39:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by BooMan on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:44:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Awww. Not fair! I can't ask you to burn Ray Bolger!

My Website
by kansas on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:00:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To quote DeNiro's Capone from The Untouchables:
I want this guy dead! I want his family dead! I want his house burned to the ground! I want to go there in the middle of the night and piss on his ashes!

--
Albert Yee
Philadelphia, PA
http://dragonballyee.com/blog
by albert (dragonballyeeATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:02:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL

De Niro was a great Capone.

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:21:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
indeedy, one of my favorite DeNiro characters

--
Albert Yee
Philadelphia, PA
http://dragonballyee.com/blog
by albert (dragonballyeeATgmail.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:56:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Get him a job at the White House. After all, he's already got the themesong:

I could while away the hours, conferrin' with the flowers
Consultin' with the rain.
And my head I'd be scratchin' while
my thoughts were busy hatchin'
If I only had a brain.


"Blow up the TV. Throw away the Papers." - John Prine

by Dvx (dvx.clt ät gmail dotcom) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:46:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]
...unless you dig those Halloween movies...

Off topic, wish I could attend that party of yours!

An untypical Negro

http://thisblksistaspage.wordpress.com

by blksista (gab1954@gmail.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 01:33:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
You bastard!  Ny daughter still belives in the tooth fairy.

;-)

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:37:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Both my daughters, too.  In fact I think I might, as well.
by canberra boy (canberraboy1 at gmail dot com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 09:40:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Today's WaPo article on the Zarqawi killing contained this (I think) very bizarre paragraph, very bizarrely buried at the very end:

Minutes after the Zarqawi's death was announced the long-debated interior, defense and national security posts were filled in a giddy session of parliament. Abdul Qadir Muhammed Jassim, a Sunni Arab and former Iraqi army commander, was named defense minister, Jawad al-Bolani, a Shiite, was put in charge of the interior ministry, and Sherwan Alwaeli, a Kurd, was named the country's top official for national security.

I guess the picture we're supposed to get is that after the announcement, party hats and champagne were broken out, everybody got a little tipsy and sentimental, political/ideological opponents started slobbering "Yer my besht friend" and soon it was "What the hell, it'sh such a great day, whoever you want it'sh okay with me!" "No, no, I want whoever you want!"

Does this -- or the Post's only slightly less comical equivalent -- sound plausible to anyone?

More than anything else, this part of the story, and its odd burying, have me wondering just what happened over there last night/this morning.

Insights/provocative tinfoil speculations welcome. I'm drawing a blank.

by no3reed on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:02:44 AM EST
That is weird! Now you've got me wondering, too. They go all this time without naming anybody to those posts and suddenly in a fit of post-Zarqawi jubilation they not only find their men, but somebody from each ethnic group?  I guess I can almost see it happening, but if it happened like that it's pretty sad as an indicator of how bad things have been/are and how threatened and weak they feel in their own country.

My Website
by kansas on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:16:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I know! I just don't see what this development has to do with the tensions that had prevented agreement on the posts' occupants up to now.  At least from here they seemed to be pretty deep-seated -- not the sort of thing that would just evaporate in a moment of euphoria.  (That's assuming that everyone in the Parliament actually felt euphoric in the first place, and I wonder if they would think Zarqawi's death has that much significance.)

by no3reed on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:25:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That is very strange indeed.  Makes you wonder if the whole thing was a psy-ops campaign to enhance the new government's credibility.  

Or a political payoff of some sort to the people behind whoever fingered Zarqawi.  I note the most likely would be the Sunni rep appointed as Defense Minister.  Was there a deal made to the Sunnis that give us the head of Zarqawi and you get the Defense Ministry?

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:29:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks, Steven. Could it also be politically important that with this timing, the new security minister (or, for that matter, the new defense minister) doesn't get the credit (or blame, depending on who's doing the attributing) for Zarqawi's being eliminated?

by no3reed on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:58:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think you have identified the two most likely scenarios.  
by BooMan on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:35:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
sounds like more psyops if you ask me.... considering we never knew for sure he actually existed to begin with.

Diary of a Traitor
by Planet B (planb247(a)yahoo) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:09:48 AM EST

Yup. My money's on the Bush administration deciding they need to declare victory and pull out now. They've been told by their allies in the House and Senate that they'll lose seats if the war goes on much longer. CNN's spin is all about how this was all the work of the "Iraqi forces", and how it's a wonderful sign for their continued viability. I bet we'll see serious troop draw-downs by midsummer, and that the Republicans will start beating the "Iraq Worked, Invade Iran" drums around October.



Kill because somebody was killed. Get killed because he killed. Do you think peace will ever come like that?
by Egarwaen on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:28:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
He was the post boy for the DOD PsyOps program. It is easier to blame a foreign terrorist for the IEDs than a popular uprising and/or a continuation of the Baathist resistance to being thrown out of power.

It, also, shows the lack of curiosity of the lapdog corporate media.  No one has or will mention the fact the US military is so limited that all is left is aerial bombing of houses in the capital city, Bagdad, to take out suspects. They only control the green zone. The rest of Iraq is Indian Country.

by Jim S on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:24:53 AM EST
I really don't think the guy was responsible for most of the violence going on in Iraq.  And if I'm reading between the lines correctly, that's more or less what Tony Snow is saying right now.

Jeff Huber Pen and Sword
by Jeff Huber on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 10:49:52 AM EST
Perhaps the administration is finally remembering that Bush made the 2000 election close enough to steal by lowering expectations at every turn.  

Much of the PR disaster of the Bush presidency has been built on creating ridiculous expectations.  Pie-in-the-sky happy talk about Iraq, in addition to being non-reality based, has also been a real political loser, as Americans have figured out that things are not going well.

Zarqawi's death is probably not going to make much of a difference. If it does make a big difference, the administration will of course happily take credit for it down the line. But at this point they seem to be downplaying it.  Unfortunately, I think that's a fairly smart move.

Become a Card-Carrying Green!

by GreenSooner (greensooner@NOSPAMintergate.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 11:07:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

he's been killed for the 4th time.

You know how he gets when he gets killed, hogs the X-box, eats all Zawa's yogurt, and generally makes life in the safe house impossible until we can talk sense into him.

Oh and this time he took Zawa's spike glue into his room too, so nobody even wants to go in there. This is a man who insists on giving everybody he knows burgundy highlights. You don't want to even think about what he'll do to himself with a whole tube of spike glue.

So Zawa is banging the door, he is all so how the f&%* am I supposed to define my layers, will you just tell me that?

I do what I can. I very quietly went out and bought a six pack of yogurt, that lime fluff flavor Zawa just loves, and what appreciation do I get? It's not the same, he says. It's not the yogurt, it's the principle. Um, you didn't happen to pick up a tube of spike glue while you were out?

No, I did not. I thought about it, I told him, but I didn't think it would be the same.

Wrong thing to say to a dude who is going through bad Xbox withdrawal. He starts to cry, says I am making fun of him because I never did like the layers, did not think they made his cheekbones pop.

What can you do? Sometimes a hug and a cup of lime fluff yogurt is all we have to offer.

I knocked on Zarq's door, and told him Zawa was really sorry about him being killed for the 4th time, and I could tell he was sincere because there was something about his cheekbones. They just aren't popping like they have been ever since Zarq gave him that haircut.

After a while, he mumbles something that sounds like "the frigging as*^$&% needs his mo$%^(^$# layers defined, and the door opens just a crack, Zarq holds out a finger, with a glob of spike glue on the tip.

That's all he needs, he says. Just the size of a pea. Tell him to work it from the roots.

The things I go through to keep peace in this safe house!

I transfer the glop of spike glue from Zarq's finger to my own.

Man, I tell him, that really sucks about you getting killed again. I already called the pizza. The one you like. Double pineapple, double onions.

(I always treat everybody to pizza every time Zarq gets killed).

Cool, I think he mumbles. It's a start.

Zawa is still crying. Hold out your finger, dude, I tell him.

This too will pass. We'll all feel better after we've had some pizza.

one man's conspiracy is another man's business plan
Blog updated as needed

by DuctapeFatwa (DuctapeFatwa@yahoo.com) on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 02:30:46 PM EST
IOKIYAA (it's okay if you're an american):

Torture
Using chemical weapons
Possessing nukes and threatening to use them
Killing civilians
And now... publishing photos of dead enemy fighters

Oh, what a fucked up country this is...

by like sister ray sez on Thu Jun 8th, 2006 at 08:13:28 PM EST


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