God knows I'm no brainiac Iraq expert like Richard Perle and Paul Wolfowitz and the rest of that gang, but here I go.   You're right about the Sunnis needing protection.  We aren't the people to do it though so we're back to the mythical international force of peacekeepers.  I don't know how in the world that could be arranged or even how effective it would be.  Arranging to airlift every Sunni out of Iraq just before the helicopters start getting pushed off piers would probably be more effective. Or building a parallel underground Iraq where the Sunnis could live ... or something like that on the moon, maybe ...

There are probably already plans written to withdraw to a safe distance, arm one or both sides to the teeth and watch the carnage.  War is always the answer for the people we've got running the show right now.

No more Me-Too Dems!

We should convene some kind of conference of regional players and work with the United Nations to find innovative solutions.

The U.N. has been heavily involved since the beginning of the "conflict", but most of their efforts don't really get any attention in this Country.  And most Americans have no awareness of the fact that our "MNF" has essentially been a police force since Feb -05.  Close the Blue Door.

The "regional players" are meeting next month in a (delayed) Arab Summit, at which it is more than likely the split caused by the current conflict in Lebanon/Israel/"Palestine" will take center stage - IF they meet at all.  Not much help there either.

Face it, there is no "we" of any significance any longer, and the Bush administration and a majority in Congress have no interest in working with the international community.  Think about it.

that a Shiite Iraq would not be a problem, and Iranian influence over it would not be a problem, for several reasons . . . here's two of them:

The bulk of the technical and administrative competence in Iraq was Sunni (mostly "secular" Sunni at that).  They anticipated that a Shiite dominated Iraq would be backward (think Taliban), corrupt and torn by internal squabbles for generations . . .

They thought Iranian influence, regardless its extent, would be inconsequential, because they intended next to do to Iran what they did to Iraq . . . "shock and awe", followed by sectarians fighting each other over the rubble.  

It's the same plan that Israel has followed in Palestine and is now following in Lebanon . . . destroy the civil infrastructure, kill, arrest or otherwise render impotent any non-quisling political leadership that might emerge, demonize and kill any organized resistance, and then proudly proclaim "see? we told you they were like animals" in justification of the next round of attacks.  All while quietly appropriating whatever resources (oil, water, land) might be there for the taking.

They may have underestimated the willingness and resolve of the locals to fight occupation, but the resulting delay has not changed their overall plan.  They are so convinced of their own superiority, and entitlement, that what happens to (what they do to) the "other" simply does not matter to them.

Civil war in Iraq is desirable for Israel.  It's simply divide and conquer.  The neo-cons may be rather content with the current situation.

Don't Panic

Turkey would be happy to do the job, but right now Iran has that role.

The events of the past week in Lebanon, probably by calculation, give Iran cover to define peace in Iraq, as this is not time for an internecine Arab tiff.

Prediction:

One way or another, peace in Iraq will be an old-fashioned Persian variety, with those communities not authorized to bear arms paying tribute to those who are. Then, over the next decade, prosperity and an increasingly fractious relationship between Iraqi Shi-ites and Iranian Shi-ites will turn the law more secular and systematic.

You forgot the Kurds.

The Kurds in northern Iraq also want the United States to remain--or some sort of external force--to protect them from reprisals from both Sunni and Shiite.

I think where this is all heading is a partition of Iraq, the way Yugoslavia was split up, and with the same consequences.

I have accepted the fact that the United States will have significant troop presence in Iraq for at least the next three years.  The new president in 2008 would need at least a year to work out a withdrawal solution and we have two years left in Bush's misbegotten presidency.

There's a very intelligent discussion of the mechanisms and ramifications of a US withdrawal from Iraq in Rolling Stone:

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/8799011/getting_out_of_iraq/

An excerpt:

As the situation in Iraq worsens, the idea of establishing a timetable is gaining favor in Washington. Sen. Russ Feingold, a Democrat from Wisconsin, says it is time for "a proposed target date to have the troops come home." In the House, a bipartisan resolution with more than sixty co-sponsors asks the president to initiate a withdrawal "as soon as possible, but not later than October 1st, 2006."

"The word 'timetable' is anathema to some people," says Larry Korb, who served as assistant secretary of defense under Reagan. But in a detailed exit plan he co-authored for the Center for American Progress, a liberal think tank, Korb calls on the Pentagon to withdraw 80,000 troops in 2006 and 60,000 more in 2007, leaving only a residual force to protect the U.S. Embassy. Others want to accelerate that schedule. The liberal Institute for Policy Studies calls for a unilateral cease-fire and an immediate cut in U.S. force levels, while the Project on Defense Alternatives, a left-leaning research group, calls its exit plan "400 Days and Out."

Long overdue, say many critics of the war, is a U.S. effort to negotiate with the other side -- not with radical Islamists tied to Al Qaeda and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi in Iraq but with the dozen or so groups that make up the main force of the Iraqi resistance. "There is a whole rainbow of armed groups, including organizations that are tired of fighting and want to make a deal," says White, the former intelligence official. "The only way wars end is when you talk to the enemy."

My predictions?

1. The United States will elect a Democrat to the White House in 2008 and it will be on that President's watch that the US withdraws from Iraq--so that the Republicans can blame the Democrats for "losing" Iraq.

2. Iraq will go through a long period of civil war of three to five years.  A dictator will eventually rule the Sunni and Shiite areas of Iraq, while the Kurds, after a fierce struggle, will retain their autonomy in the northern third of the country.  An estimated 50,000 or even 100,000 Iraqis will die during this period of struggle.

3. Iran's political and economic influence in the region will grow by leaps and bounds as a result of its alliance with the new Shiite-led government in Iraq (remember, Saddam was a Sunni and thus a minority inside Iraq).  Once Iran develops nuclear weapons, and forges a closer relationship with Iraq, it will be calling the shots on the Arabian Peninsula.

The long-term results of the US invasion of Iraq?  More misery for the Iraqis, a dictator every bit as bad as Saddam, and greatly increased power for the Iranians.

Brilliant.

Who are you going to believe, me or your own eyes?

I think the bottom line has an eerie parallel to Vietnam (again). Back then, a true democratic election would have made Ho Chi Minh president, even in South Vietnam. He liberated the country from French occupation after all.

But our government couldn't permit that; he was a Communist.

Now the person our government fears is Moqtada Al-Sadr. We can't have him in charge; his guys killed Americans. Plus he draws his strength from the outcasts, the same folks Hugo Chavez appeals to.

Al-sadr, while being friendly to Iran, isn't likely to play second fiddle to Iranian clerics, and is just the sort of strongman that could restore order in Iraq. But he's a wildcard and not the puppet material our government wants (AND his guys killed American troops).

So we stay the course, but in my view, we just postpone the inevitable. Unless we assassinate him, he will lead Iraq sometime. Grant him diplomatic respect now and we could have a decent outcome. But I doubt we'll do that because his guys....

It's not a great solution but it's the best there is, I suspect.

Even though the Sunnis will suffer. Which was predictable.  Can our presence save the Sunnis? Only temporarily.

That's why Bush stays the course: even the best course will be pretty ugly now.

- Kev - 'Don't question authority. Assume authority.'

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