I reported in May that despite the deteriorating situation in Iraq, no National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) has been produced on that country since the summer of 2004. The last NIE, a classified document that the CIA describes as “the most authoritative written judgment concerning a national security issue,” was rejected by the Bush Administration (after being leaked to the New York Times) as being too negative, though its grim assessment subsequently proved to be highly accurate.

The situation has gotten even darker since my initial story—a United Nations report cited in Wednesday's New York Times found that an average of more than 100 Iraqi civilians were killed each day in June—and I've learned from two sources that some senior figures at the CIA, along with a number of Iraq analysts, have been pushing to produce a new NIE. They've been stonewalled, however, by John Negroponte, the administration's Director of National Intelligence, who knows that any honest take on the situation would produce an NIE even more pessimistic than the 2004 version. That could create problems on the Hill and, if it is leaked as the last one was, with the public as well.

“What do you call the situation in Iraq right now?” asked one person familiar with the situation. “The analysts know that it's a civil war, but there's a feeling at the top that [using that term] will complicate matters.” Negroponte, said another source regarding the potential impact of a pessimistic assessment, “doesn't want the president to have to deal with that.”

Isn't that thoughtful of Mr. Negroponte? He doesn't want to cause any headaches for President Bush, so he simply prohibits any National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq from being drafted in the first place. After all, telling Bush the truth isn't always the best idea, now is it? Maybe he can't handle it, or maybe the political fortunes of the Republican Party would suffer if the CIA had the gall to issue an NIE that called the situation in Iraq what any person not addicted to Fox News already knows: a Goddamn Civil War that's killing THOUSANDS of Iraqi civilians each month at an ever increasing rate with each month that passes.

But God forbid President Bush should ever have to hear such sobering news from the CIA. Or should we just say, Negroponte forbid, from now on?

Iraq Iraq Civil War CIA National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq John Negroponte President Bush