crap. thanks steven, that's up at correntewire now. crap.

Bush got criticized for not demanding sacrifices from the American people following Sept 11. Maybe he wants to make up for that oversight big time. An attack on Iran will cause sacrifices on a level unseen since WWII, if not the Civil War. Even his circle of delusional psychos knows that, so this won't happen before the election: $10 gas will not keep the GOP in power.

Bush is "the first President to admit to an impeachable offense." --Former Nixon counsel John Dean

He can't do that without going to congress first right?

Frodo failed...Bush has got the ring.

I'd guess full-scale military action will be initiated before the elections, because

a) as a nation, we currently seem forgetful that we are at war & must never question The Annointed One in His infinite psychotic wisdom. Those who would question His ultimate sociopathic authority are Terrists. Even if they're shy about it.

b) Elections? What elections? Refer to A.

I think they feel like they need to do this before the elections, either because (a) they don't want to deal with a Democratic House, which would ask pesky questions, or (b) because they've decided that elections are really a waste of time anyway and are going to suspend the whole exercise indefinitely.

I wish I were being snarky about this, but I'm not.

Also, they won't need a draft, not now, anyway.  They're going nukular.  From what I've read, the Air Force is the only branch behind this adventure anyway.

So when the price of oil goes sky-high and there are riots in the streets, when Russia and China decide that enough's enough and pull our financial rug out from under us, and when the fallout drifts over allied nations, then they'll say that no one could have anticipated it.

Iran doesn't have the capacity to build nukes, nor will it have the capacity soon.  If BushCo wants to attack them, it's because they believe they have to act now to solidify American military hegemony in the Middle East.

But I don't think they have the will to start another war.

This is Bush and Karl Rove bluffing--not Iran--but the American people.  Pounding the war drums before the election may be the only chance they have of keeping a Republican majority.  It may backfire, too, but you have to go into an election with the political arsenal you have.

The so-called "War on Terror" (SCWOT) IS Terrorism!

oh fuck oh fuck oh fuck...

When the power of love overcomes the love of power the world will know peace. - Jimi Hendrix

If American ships deploy in the region I'm sure the first thing Ahmadinajad will do is blockade the Straits of Hormuz. Gas goes up to $10 a gallon.

Now what are the chances of Chavez joining in with the Iranians in suspending exports to the US? I can't even begin to guess how far up gas prices will go.

If he does this before the election, he can kiss Congress goodbye.

* sigh *

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh

... anytime any of our Presidential wannabees want to say something about this, anytime ...

I wish I could say I was suprised.

Say goodbye to the world economy for years to come as Iran shuts down the Persian Gulf, and say goodbye to the US Army in Iraq, who will reap this whirlwind as the Shi'a around them help to re-enact the French defeat at Dien Ben Phu.

"Whenever a Voice of Moderation addresses liberals, its sole purpose is to stomp out any real sign of life." - James Wolcott

Minesweepers and minehunters won't be used to blockade Iranian ports.  The minesweepers and minehunters will be used to clear Iranian mines dumped into the Strait of Hormuz in retaliation for an American strike.  The US Navy needs them there to keep the Strait open or at least appear to keep the strait open.  Otherwise, no tanker captain would dare take his vessel through the Strait if a fighting war is going on.  

These type of ships are needed because Dubya and the posse have already decided to attack Iran. The US Navy has only something like a dozen of these ships available.  They're small and slow and vulnerable.  The Navy would deploy them that far from the Continental US (their usual location) only because the Navy knows that a hot war will be erupting and their services will be required.

Incidentally, take a look at the cruising speed for these minesweepers and minehunters and the distance to the Gulf.  They can cruise at about 14 knots and the distance to the Gulf is about 7400 miles.  That translates into a about a 21 day voyage to put them in the Gulf so let's say they arrive around October 25th to allow for refueling in Gibraltar, Messina, Suez, Djibouti and Muscat in Oman.  That's one week before the election, which is all that matters to this White House.

That week is the only window of opportunity that matters.  The attack must occur within about four days before the election.  That way, blowback from the policy doesn't cause a disaster for the Republicans in the Congress but they can use the attack to smear the Democrats who won't support an unwarranted, unjustified, and illegal attack.

Why else would the word come down to rush a task group by October 1st to sail to the Gulf?  No immediate crisis  exists - that the sane, rational world is aware of.  No, the crisis will exist in four weeks and will be manufactured and the ships must be at hand to support the policy.

BTW, the Royal Navy just had a Portsmouth-based minehunter deploy to the Mediterranean for the first time in four years.  It passed through Gibraltar in late August and wasn't supposed to return to the UK until December.  Ostensibly, it is supposed to be participating in NATO anti-minewarfare games off Turkey this fall.  It could also fit in a little real life experience in the meantime.  It was heading east based on the news reports coming from various ports in the Med.  The Dark Lord is assembling his forces.  

But some nonproliferation experts worry about a different moment: when Iran is able to enrich enough uranium to fuel a bomb--a point that comes well before engineers actually assemble a nuclear device. Many believe that is when a country becomes a nuclear power. That red line, experts say, could be just a year away.

A moment when when Iran is "able to enrich enough uranium", or when it "will have enriched enough uranium"? Next year, I will be "able to drive far enough to reach New York", but I could be thousands of miles away. Being "able to enrich enough uranium" does indeed come "well before engineers [could] actually assemble a nuclear device". Lots of weasel room here.

I'd like to see a credible source that says they could plausibly make enrich kilograms (not milligrams) by then.

Words and ideas I offer here may be used freely and without attribution.

I am sure that the President wants to do Iran.  All signs point towards a bombing campaign.  Except two recent events:  

1. Hezabollah defeated Israel's invasion.  Shock and awe failed in Lebanon. That had to send shivers down a few Generals backs.  

2. Gasoline prices have fallen because speculators have decided that Iranian supplies won't be blockaded.  We're talking about real money.  The oil traders had to have gotten the news from some very good sources.