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What if We Win the Senate?

by BooMan
Sat Sep 9th, 2006 at 02:26:09 AM EST

What would the Senate look like if the Democrats took it over? I have tried to figure it out. To do so, I analyzed the current committee positions of every Democrat, and the background of the most likely new Democrats that would be part of a takeover. For the purposes of my study I made the following optimistic assumptions:

1. That Robert Menendez will hold his seat in NJ.
2. That Bernie Sanders will replace Jim Jeffords in VT.
3. That Amy Klobucher will replace Mark Dayton in Minnesota.
4. That Ben Cardin will win the Maryland primary and replace Paul Sarbanes.
5. That all incumbent Democrats will win.
6. That Ned Lamont will knock out Joe Lieberman.
7. That the following Democrats will knock out incumbent Republicans: Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Harold Ford, Jr. in Tennessee, Sheldon Whitehouse in Rhode Island, Jon Tester in Montana, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Jim Webb in Virginia, and Bob Casey, Jr. in Pennsylvania.

If all that happens, the Democrats will have a 51-48 advanatage with Bernie Sanders in our caucus. I still have hopes for Pederson in Arizona and Carter in Nevada, but I did not include them.

My methodology assumes that no Senator can be the head of two committees at the same time. This required some adjustments. Max Baucus is the ranking member on both Finance and Environment. I gave him Finance. That elevated Barbara Boxer to the chairperson position on Environment. Paul Sarbanes is the ranking member on Banking. He is retiring. That elevated Chris Dodd to the ranking member. He is also the ranking member on Rules. I gave him banking and elevated Diane Feinstein to the chairperson on Rules. Joe Lieberman is the ranking member on Homeland Security. The next is line is Carl Levin. He has Armed Services. I left him there. After him comes Daniel Akaka who is the ranking member on Veteran's Affairs. I left him with Veteran's Affairs and elevated the next in line, Tom Carper, to chair Homeland Security.

All other committees simply flipped from the current Republican to the current ranking Democrat.

For all the new Democratic chairpersons I list the Republican they will be replacing.

Taking a quick look at my work it seems obvious that the most glaring advantages and dramatic improvements will be made in the Judiciary, and Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) committees. According to my projections, three Senators will acquire committees who are not even ranking members at the moment. Two of them are women. Check out my handywork below the fold and tell me what you think, and how it bodes for the country. All committees are listed in terms of seniority. And, in so far as possible (excepting committee chairs) I have aimed to have each Senator sit on at least 4 committees. Evan Bayh currently sits on six. He is the hardest working member of Congress.

True freshman are bolded.

AGEING (11 members, no subcommittees):

Chairperson: Herbert Kohl- WI (Gordon Smith- OR)
Ron Wyden- OR
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Evan Byah- IN
Tom Carper- DE
Bill Nelson- Fl
Hillary Clinton- NY
Ken Salazar- CO
Ned Lamont- CT
Sherrod Brown- OH
Bob Casey, Jr.- PA

AGRICULTURE (11 members, 4 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Tom Harkin- IA (Saxby Chambliss- GA)
Patrick Leahy- VT
Kent Conrad- ND
Max Baucus- MT
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Ben Nelson- NE
Ken Salazar- CO
Jon Tester- MT
Claire McCaskill- MO
Amy Klobucher- MN

Appropriations (15 members, 12 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Robert Byrd- WV (Thad Cochran- MS)
Daniel Inouye- HI
Patrick Leahy- VT
Tom Harkin- IA
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Harry Reid- NV
Herbert Kohl- WI
Patty Murray- WA
Byron Dorgan- ND
Diane Feinstein- CA
Richard Durbin- IL
Tim Johnson- SD
Mary Landrieu- LA
Teddy Kennedy- MA
Frank Lautenberg- NJ

ARMED SERVICES (13 members, 6 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Carl Levin- MI (John Warner- VA)
Teddy Kennedy- MA
Robert Byrd- WV
Jack Reed- RI
Daniel Akaka- HI
Bill Nelson- FL
Ben Nelson- NE
Evan Byah- IN
Hillary Clinton- NY
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Barbara Boxer- CA
Ben Cardin- MD
Harold Ford, JR.- TN

BANKING (11 members, 5 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Chris Dodd- CT (Richard Shelby- AL)
Tim Johnson- SD
Jack Reed- RI
Charles Schumer- NY
Evan Byah- IN
Tom Carper- DE
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Robert Menendez- NJ
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI
Ned Lamont- CT

BUDGET (12 members, 0 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Kent Conrad- ND (Judd Gregg- NH)
Patty Murray- WA
Ron Wyden- OR
Russ Feingold- WI
Tim Johnson- SD
Robert Byrd- WV
Bill Nelson- FL
Debbie Stabenow- MI
Robert Menendez- NJ
Richard Durbin- IL
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Bernie Sanders- VT

COMMERCE (12 members, 9 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Daniel Inouye- HI (Ted Stevens- AK)
John Rockefeller- WV
John Kerry- MA
Byron Dorgan- ND
Barbara Boxer- CA
Bill Nelson- FL
Maria Cantwell- WA
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
Ben Nelson- NE
Mark Pryor- AR
Jeff Bingaman- NM
Harold Ford, Jr.- TN

ENERGY (12 members, 4 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Jeff Bingaman- NM (Pete Domenici- NM)
Daniel Akaka- HI
Byron Dorgan- ND
Ron Wyden- OR
Tim Johnson- SD
Mary Landrieu- LA
Diane Feinstein- CA
Ken Salazar- CO
Robert Menendez- NJ
Jim Webb- VA
Ben Cardin- MD
Jon Tester- MT

ENVIRONMENT (10 members, 4 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Barbara Boxer- CA (James Inhofe- OK)
Tom Carper- DE
Hillary Clinton- NY
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
Barack Obama- IL
Joe Biden- DE
Patrick Leahy- VT
Amy Klobucher- MN
Ben Cardin- MD
Sherrod Brown- OH

ETHICS (3 members from each side, 0 subcommittees)

Co-chairperson: Tim Johnson- SD (co-chair George Voinovich- OH)
Mark Pryor- AR
Bernie Sanders- VT

FINANCE (11 members, 5 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Max Baucus- MT (Charles Grassley- IA)
John Rockefeller- WV
Kent Conrad- ND
Jeff Bingaman- NM
John Kerry- MA
Blanche Lincoln- AR
Ron Wyden- OR
Charles Schumer-NY
Herbert Kohl- WI
Jon Tester- MT
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI

FOREIGN RELATIONS (10 members, 7 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Joe Biden- DE (Richard Lugar- IN)
Chris Dodd- CT
John Kerry- MA
Russ Feingold- WI
Barbara Boxer- CA
Bill Nelson- FL
Barack Obama- IL
Amy Klobucher- MN
Harold Ford, Jr.- TN
Jim Webb- VA

HEALTH, EDUCATION, LABOR, PENSIONS (11 members, 4 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Teddy Kennedy- MA (Michael Enzi- WY)
Chris Dodd- CT
Tom Harkin- IA
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Jeff Bingaman- NM
Patty Murray- WA
Jack Reed- RI
Hillary Clinton- NY
Mary Landrieu- LA
Ned Lamont- CT
Claire McCaskill- MO

HOMELAND SECURITY AND GOVERNMENT AFFAIRS (9 members, 3 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Tom Carper- DE (Susan Collins- ME)
Carl Levin- MI
Daniel Akaka- HI
Frank Lautenberg- NJ
Mark Pryor- AR
Barack Obama- IL
Bob Casey, Jr.
Jim Webb
Bernie Sanders

INDIAN AFFAIRS (8 members, 0 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Byron Dorgan- ND (John McCain- AZ)
Daniel Inouye- HI
Kent Conrad- ND
Daniel Akaka- HI
Tim Johnson- SD
Maria Cantwell- WA
Jon Tester- MT
Bernie Sanders- VT

INTELLIGENCE (9 members, 0 subcommittees)

Chairperson: John Rockefeller- WV (Pat Roberts- KS)
Carl Levin- MI
Dianne Feinstein- CA
Ron Wyden- OR
Evan Bayh- IN
Barbara Mikulski- MD
Russ Feingold- WI
Robert Menendez- NJ
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI

JUDICIARY (10 members, 8 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Patrick Leahy- VT (Arlen Specter- PA)
Teddy Kennedy- MA
Joe Biden- DE
Herbert Kohl- WI
Diane Feinstein- CA
Russ Feingold- WI
Charles Schumer- NY
Richard Durbin- IL
Amy Klobucher- MN
Sherrod Brown- OH

SMALL BUSINESS (10 members, 0 subcommittees)

Chairperson: John Kerry- MA (Trent Lott- MS)
Carl Levin- MI
Tom Harkin- IA
Mary Landrieu- LA
Maria Cantwell- WA
Evan Bayh- IN
Mark Pryor- AR
Sheldon Whitehouse- RI
Ned Lamont- CT
Bob Casey, JR.- PA

VETERAN'S AFFAIRS (8 members, 0 subcommittees)

Chairperson: Daniel Akaka- HI (Larry Craig- ID)
John Rockefeller- WV
Patty Murray- WA
Barack Obama- IL
Ken Salazar- CO
Hillary Clinton- NY
Claire McCaskill- MO
Jim Webb- VA

What if We Win the Senate? | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (4.00 / 3)

I confess I am leary of counting Dem chickens before they are hatched. The Dems have yet to mount an aggressive national campaign the likes of which Rove is rolling out. Repubs have a lot of money to spend. More "surprises" will be in store in the next two months (count on it). And I believe that in close races you will find election theft a very real possibility.

In any close race, the Dems must be ahead by at least ten points or more. Otherwise we will see a lot of repeats of what happened to Cleland in 2002 in Ga.

I'd like to believe otherwise, but count me as a pessimist regarding Dem chances to retake either the House or the Senate unless the Dems get more on the ball, especially with their national ads and GOTV efforts. I think from what I can see so far, they are playing it conservatively, a not to lose strategy, rather than a balls to the wall, we will crush you strategy, and I am not convinced that such an approach will work in the era we now live in.

The PRI in Mexico, and the LDP in Japan, maintained one party rule for decades precisely because they kept their competition weak, disorganized, and fearful, and then CHEATED LIKE CRAZY COME ELECTION DAY. That approach seems to be the one Rove has followed since 2000 as his model, and I do not see it being beaten without a tremendous swell of on the ground orhanization and support by the Dems. I've yet to see that happening.

Obama is a Patriot

by Steven D on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 06:49:50 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

exactly. As usual, you're a voice of sanity here.

"Whenever a Voice of Moderation addresses liberals, its sole purpose is to stomp out any real sign of life." - James Wolcott

by Madman in the Marketplace on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 09:02:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 1)

I thought about going further into the subcommittees but I'm not that much of a geek.

Also available in blue.

by BooMan on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 06:46:05 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

also available in orange.

by BooMan on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:55:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 1)

Wow, Boo, you doin' a lot of coffee today?
Intell
I must confess I don't really know how committees get assigned. Your list suggests it's kind of cut and dried procedure, but I've always had the impression that it's a matter of getting out the long knives and slashing away. Or at least trading votes among cliques. Does being a ranking member really buy a ticket to the chair?

Questions:

how come Feingold doesn't get a chairmanship? He's hardly a newbie to the Senate.

Would Kerry really settle for the insignificant small business committee? I suspect he still has more clout than that.

I like Kennedy on Health and Leahy on Judiciary and maybe Rockefeller on Intelligence. These three would be pivots in accomplishing the investigations we're all hoping to see. Biden seems like a weak link on foreign relations, at least as long as there's a Republican in the White House.

Bush is "the first President to admit to an impeachable offense." --Former Nixon counsel John Dean

by DaveW on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:01:12 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

These three would be pivots in accomplishing the investigations we're all hoping to see.

We might see something from them, but Biden and Carper put a damper on what we should reasonably expect from the Senate. Our hopes for thorough investigation probably rest more with the House, where several prominent administration critics will become chairs of the principal investigative committees.

by Shalimar (srbaxley@yahoo.com) on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:15:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

Well, there are a lot of factors.

Ranking members will become chairman unless they stand to become chairmen of more than one committee.

We have extra seats to fill on every committee. Some people will want to drop some responibilities, others will gain more.

by BooMan on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow. (none / 1)

Awesome, awesome work. Might I suggest that Sen. Casey is a better fit in HELP than Small Business? Swap with McCaskill.

by adam b (throwingthingsblog -at- hotmail.com) on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:10:47 PM EST

Re: Wow. (none / 0)

I don't know how I only assigned him two committees. It's hard to do this. He needs one or two more assignments. He can take one or two of Evan Bayh's.

by BooMan on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:15:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow. (none / 0)

This stuff is hard. I wonder if there are some lessons to be learned by how Republicans assigned committees after retaking the majority in 2004.

by adam b (throwingthingsblog -at- hotmail.com) on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 09:52:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wow. (none / 0)

too bad he's a lousy campaigner and he's going to lose. Oh, wait ... LUCKILY he's a lousy campaigner and he's going to lose.

"Whenever a Voice of Moderation addresses liberals, its sole purpose is to stomp out any real sign of life." - James Wolcott

by Madman in the Marketplace on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 09:00:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 1)

Please remember their are races in Texas also!!!! Texas has not given up and I wish the rest of the Democrats in America would quit giving up on us. Barbara Ann Radnofsky is running against Kay Bailey Hutchinson in Texas and has a damn good chance of winning.

Doing My Part For The Left,Left Of The Rainbow

by refinish69 (refinish69 at gmail dot com) on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 07:34:21 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 1)

wow good work...someone should be paying you for this type of analysis.

tom carper heading up
homeland security....im in delaware and have spent little time on educating myself on my senators and reps....i do call bidens office weekly to complain about something...but thats the extent of my delaware activism...any insight on carper?

Edible panties taste like crap.

by anna in philly (jrsygir1@aol.com) on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 08:45:13 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

LOL ...

EVEN if this were to come to pass, NOTHING would change for the American People. NOTHING. We'd still be warmongering bully zionists, they'd continue to spy on us, women and gays will still be second and third class citizens. Maybe a third of those chairpersons are true liberals.

"Whenever a Voice of Moderation addresses liberals, its sole purpose is to stomp out any real sign of life." - James Wolcott

by Madman in the Marketplace on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 08:59:02 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

I would suggest Jim Webb for Armed Services. Seems he would be a natural there. And I agree with putting him on Veterans Affairs. With his history he would have instant credibility.

Have I ever told you about my poor memory?

by ignorant bystander on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 09:01:22 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

I agree with most of what you say Boo-Man, but you are a little optomistic on a couple of races. First off, Lamont will lose to Lieberman, but the seat remains Democratic. I can't see Jon Tester beating Conrad Burns in Montana. I think Burns is a snake, but this is Montana. Santorum will close the gap on Casey, but Casey wins. Also Claire Mc.Caskell loses a tight one to Jim Talent.

When all is said and done Reps have 51 seats, Dems 48 and one independent.

Why is it that both parties are so intent on screaming at each other, rather than trying to find solutions to this country's massive problems??

by eastcoastmoderate on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 11:01:10 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

West coast liberal here. Care to wager on the Lamont/Lieberman race? Joe is out and that will send the right message to the rest of the ass kissing spineless group.

Frodo failed...Bush has got the ring.

by alohaleezy on Fri Sep 8th, 2006 at 11:57:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

Lieberman might beat Lamont, but if so, that means the seat will not be Democratic anymore, as Lieberman has opted out of the Party for his independent run. Yes, Joe may vote with Dems sometimes and caucus with Dems, but he will remain, on the really crucial issues, a Republican.

Joe is sort of like a semi-covert troll on a progressive blog-site. Such a troll will write lots of agreeable comments here and there, but when it comes time to sow some shit they will post right-wing talking points, throw flames, and refuse to engage in meaningful discussion of their viewpoints. Then, when they are called out for being a troll, they can point to their previous record and show how reasonable and "straight down the line" they have been and defend themselves with the accumulated niceties on small things.

Joe has voted 'correctly' on lots of issues, but when it comes time to propagandize or vote on a big issue, he morphs into a Republican. His votes and propaganda then support the huge things that make all the little accumulated 'correct votes' amount to almost nothing, because the country has no resources left to do much to implement his lesser, but more 'correct' positions. You know, sort of like when you shave that hog and dress it up in a tutu and put some lipstick on it - it makes it a little prettier, but it's still just a hog.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. -Margaret Mead

by blueneck on Sat Sep 9th, 2006 at 04:42:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

I don't wager, but the consensus is still strong that Lieberman will retain his seat, then we can get rid of a fake Democrat like Lamont, and reelect a real one like Lieberman. Plus the only people I consider spineless, are the one who voted for Lamont in the first place.

Why is it that both parties are so intent on screaming at each other, rather than trying to find solutions to this country's massive problems??

by eastcoastmoderate on Sat Sep 9th, 2006 at 12:32:59 PM EST

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

you're an idiot.

by BooMan on Sat Sep 9th, 2006 at 01:22:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

Still waiting to hear your explanation of this.

I'm sure it will be hilarious.

by CabinGirl on Sat Sep 9th, 2006 at 01:39:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 0)

Uh, cabin girl, he won't try to explain anything, because he's a troll who posts ignorant opinions and refuses to support them.....

I'll wager that ecm won't respond at all to your post or respond in any substantive way whatsoever to the content of the article that you linked to.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has. -Margaret Mead

by blueneck on Sat Sep 9th, 2006 at 04:45:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What if We Win the Senate? (none / 1)

Just think of it as my version of a recipe. :)

by CabinGirl on Sun Sep 10th, 2006 at 12:48:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

What if We Win the Senate? | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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