Booman Tribune

On Israel and Iran and the Bomb

by BooMan
Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 01:23:56 PM EST

Former Director of Central Intelligence James Woolsey was in Herzliya, Israel on Monday for a conference on security. He told the audience that Iran had no interest in nuclear energy, that they were pursuing a bomb, that diplomacy would fail, that non-violent coup attempts would fail, and that the U.S. would almost definitely have to attack.

Questioned about the likelihood that President George W. Bush would launch an attack on Iran, Woolsey replied, "The president is a man of great character and principle."

Woolsey said he believes Bush is a man "who means what he says, and he said we're not going to let Iran have a nuclear weapon."

James Woolsey is not Jewish. He prefers to say, "I anchor the Presbyterian wing of JINSA (the Jewish Institute for National Security Affairs)." Newt Gingrich isn't Jewish either. Steven D has already covered his speech from Herzliya, where he compared Iran's nuclear intentions to a second Holocaust. John Edwards isn't Jewish. He had something to say at this conference too.

"Let me be clear: Under no circumstances can Iran be allowed to have nuclear weapons," Edwards said. "For years, the US hasn’t done enough to deal with what I have seen as a threat from Iran. As my country stayed on the sidelines, these problems got worse."

Across the political spectrum Americans are falling all over each other to assure Israel that the United States will not allow our catastrophe in Iraq to deter us from attacking Iran. This is a potential catastrophe for Israel.

Americans have a fairly positive view of Israel. Most Americans see Israel as a beseiged country, a democracy in the midst of hostile dictatorships. They revere the place as the Holy Land and they like the idea that it is in the hands of the people of the Book rather than strange and frightening Muslims. If you ask Americans whether we should support and defend Israel you will probably get a favorable response. If you ask them about some of Israel's strongarm tactics you will probably be reminded that they suffered through the Holocaust and have a right to defend themselves.

But, in spite of this, Israel's image is slipping. They, and their American allies, have tied themselves too closely to George W. Bush's failed policies. Israel is a complex country with very diverse political views, but they have been run by a right-wing government for nearly Bush's entire term in office. Because of this, we have seen the influence and popularity of American right-wing sympathizers drop substantially. The best and most glaring example of this has come in the Democratic Party, where Joe Lieberman was forced out and Jane Harman was denied her position as chair of the House Intelligence Committee. (BTW- James Woolsey has contributed the maximum to both Harman and Lieberman).

Harman and Lieberman are merely the most visible manifestations of a crisis that is boiling beneath the surface. The marginalization of The New Republic is another signpost. TNR has consistently attacked the left ever since it refused to wholeheartedly embrace Bush's excellent adventure into Iraq. It's subscriptions have dropped by half and it is regularly ridiculed for its sloppy thinking and right-wing rhetorical tactics.

Individual politicians, notably former NYC Mayor Ed Koch, are drifting away from the Democrats as they see a growing hostility and lack of commitment to Bush's policies. Meanwhile, former allies like Jimmy Carter are becoming more strident in the condemnation of Israel's strategies for their security.

It's impossible for Israel's image not to suffer when it has become so intertwined with the dying ideology of neo-conservatism. And that is a problem when it comes to Iran.

In part this is a case of the 'boy who cried wolf'. Having misled the nation and the world about Iraq, the same actors are in a terrible position to mobilize us against Iran. This is true regardless of the merits. It's particularly true when they resort to the same type of tactics used to mobilize the country against Iraq.

For example, simply declaring that Iran is pursuing a nuclear bomb doesn't make it so. Iran has a lot of energy resources but they are diminishing and they are a net importer of energy. Ignoring the best intelligence about where Iran is along the path to nuclear weapons is also not helpful. Saying they will have a bomb in a year or two, when our real estimates say a decade or more, is not helpful. Lumping Iran together with Sunni extremists is not helpful. And suggesting that Iran is so suicidally hateful that they would do a first strike nuclear attack on Israel is not helpful. Demonizing their President, Mahmoud Ahmeninejad, is easy to do. The man is a nut and a strident anti-Semite. But the President of Iran does not command the armed forces or the intelligence services. Suggesting otherwise is not helpful.

Taken as a whole, Israel and their American allies are currently engaged in a propaganda campaign to frighten Americans into supporting a strike, or even a war, against Iran. But they are making all the same mistakes that they made in the lead-up to the war in Iraq. Their rhetoric is misleading, hysterical, inaccurate...

It's also irresponsible. It's irresponsible because any attack on Iran would endanger our supply lines in Iraq. It would inflame the Iraqi Shi'ites, who control the entire south of the country. It would endanger international shipping in the Persian Gulf and could lead to the closing of the Straits of Hormuz (thereby cutting off oil supplies and crippling the global economy). It would likely result in a global campaign of Hezbollah inspired terrorist attacks. It would probably make Lebanon ungovernable, possibly causing a second civil war there.

Imagine if Bush launched an attack on Iran and Americans saw our forces butchered in Iraq, gasoline prices soar causing massive lay-offs and a crumbling stock market, and then were subjected to a string of terrorist attacks. And then imagine that none of the intelligence about Iran's nuclear intentions or capabilities proved to be accurate. Where do you think that would leave Israel in its relationship with the American public?

Back in 1961 the CIA launched the Bay of Pigs operation in the hope that once it got started President Kennedy would have no choice but to reinforce the wholly inadequate invasion force. It didn't happen and the Cubans were slaughtered on the beaches. The Israelis and their hawkish American allies, appear to be attempting a similar gambit. If they can just start a massive conflagration with Iran, we will have no choice but to see it through to victory. But can you imagine what it would take to achieve such a victory? They want to start a total war of America against Islam.

Needless to say, the American people are not interested in any such battle. And I can think of no more perilous strategy for Israel. If they lose the support of the American people they will be truly alone in the world.

So, I appeal to Joe Lieberman and James Woolsey and Marty Peretz and Jane Harman and Newt Gingrich and John Edwards and Ed Koch and all the rest of the pro-Israel anti-Iran hawks...please...calm down. Use your senses. Tell the truth. Don't inflame the situation. Regain the trust of the international community. And we can try to deal with the threat of an Iranian nuclear bomb in a sober manner.



Display:
Too bad.  I was seriously considering supporting Edwards, when he smartly described the escalation strategy as the "McCain Doctrine".  I guess he wants to reserve our troops for an even worse war with Iran.  That being the case the antiwar movement should call the war with Iran "The Edwards Doctrine".  

Stray Roots Message Board,Thus far unmoderated! Dameocrat Blog
by StrayRoots (dameocrat@STUFFTOREMOVEpeacemail.com) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 01:33:55 PM EST
I already knew this about Edwards and it just pisses me off.  What is it about the whole situation surrounding the US and Israel that can make perfectly rational even brilliant people turn into idiots?

Defending Israel has almost become a cult like thing...there is no room for any rational discussion on the subject of the whole Israel/Palestinian issue.

'Poverty is the worst form of violence'--Gandhi

by chocolate ink on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 05:14:39 PM EST
You ask for what they will not give you.  When someone is convinced only they know the truth, and only they have the wisdom to know what to do, appealing to them to act in a sober and calm manner is useless.

But then you know that.

Obama is a Patriot

by Steven D on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 01:33:09 PM EST
Yglesias has posted regularly about the small-minded thinking that makes American politicians believe they must fall over themselves to support Israel in order to secure the support of American Jews.  Conflating the interests of a belligerent Israel with the interests of American Jews is a reductionist mindset that I frankly consider anti-semitic.

I think that point is worth making very clear, and looking at from both sides.  I think it's reductionist and therefore anti-semitic to assume that American Jews are all secretly working to further Israel's interests, or even that American Jews are predisposed to support Israel's policies -- this is the angle you tend to see from the left.  And I think it's reductionist and anti-semitic to assume that you gain the votes of American Jews by hyperbolically supporting Israel's policies -- this is the angle you tend to see from the right.

(Incidentally, Ed Koch isn't "drifting away from the Democrats."  Koch has been a Republican for all practical purposes for a long, long time.

by schwa on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 02:26:46 PM EST
In 2000, Koch endorsed Bill Bradley.
In 2004, Koch endorsed George W. Bush.
by BooMan on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 02:32:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This is truly tangential, but:

He has frequently endorsed prominent Republican candidates, including Rudolph Giuliani and Michael Bloomberg for Mayor, Al D'Amato for U.S. Senate, George Pataki for Governor, and, in 2003, George W. Bush for President. In 1980, as Mayor, he invited Ronald Reagan to Gracie Mansion shortly before that year's Presidential election, in which Reagan easily defeated Democratic incumbent Jimmy Carter -- a move widely seen as a tacit endorsement of Reagan on the part of Koch. Recently, however, Koch endorsed Attorney General Eliot Spitzer, a Democrat, for governor in the 2006 election.

D'Amato...

by schwa on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 02:38:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Regardless of the fineries, I'd actually prefer to retract my initial comment about Koch, because it's completely beside the point.
by schwa on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 02:40:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And I can think of no more perilous strategy for Israel. If they lose the support of the American people they will be truly alone in the world.

This will happen inevitably even if war with Iran is averted. No alliance lasts forever; most are very brief indeed, and American alliances are just as much or more based on momentary convenience as any other. The Cambodians could tell you about the willingness of fair-weather American allies to walk away from genocide.

The fatal flaw in Israel's foreign policy is that they have bet everything on a single ally's willingness to act against their own interests on Israel's behalf. And unfortunately, the reliability of that ally depends entirely on the now-declining political and religious fads of neoconservatism and evangelical Christianity. There is no "Plan B" for Israel. Everything depends on the US obliterating Israel's serious competitors. Iraq is finished, at least in our lifetimes, but Iran, for all of its problems, is on the verge of becoming the linchpin of Russian and Chinese interests in the region. Either Iran is crushed now, or it will be a serious, permanent problem for Israel. And worse, a strong Iran has no incentive whatever to reconcile with Israel or the United States.

The fly in the ointment of Sharon's desperate gambit -- aside from unexpectedly falling under the incompetent management of Ehud Olmert -- is that to accomplish the one indispensible part of the plan, the destruction of Iran, the United States must plunge itself into a conflict that will ultimately render it a second-class power. Israel's future depends, tragically, on the willingness of its only ally to effectively destroy itself in a pyrrhic struggle against another former ally.

---Cthulhu for President: Why vote for the lesser evil?

by eodell (eodell at naqada dot org) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 02:28:57 PM EST
Jumping Jehosaphat...

Not only did Edwards do all of that, he also said Israel should be made a member of NATO.

I really got to say my estimation of the guy went down about 300 points right now.

PAx

Night and day you can find me Flogging the Simian

by soj on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 02:47:33 PM EST
Oh dear.  This is bad.  I've been pushing for Edwards since 2004.  I dislike Hillary and I've been none too pleased with Obama.  I've always thought of Edwards as a populist and fairly weak on International politics, but I never would have thought he would actively support the Aparteid regime in Israel at the cost of the people of Palestine.  sigh.  Now I don't have anyone to support in the Democratic primaries.

There's a sense that people in America aren't getting the truth. - George W. Bush (Gee, ya think?)
by Kamakhya (onyx at earthlink dot net) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 05:09:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This worries me too. I've been on the Edwards bandwagon BIG time and knew I wasn't real happy with his position on the ME situation, but this goes even farther than that. It makes me question my support.

But...it seems to me that to not support anyone in the primaries means default support for Hillary. That's a situation I can't tolerate because she not only brings in the ME questions, but she does so with all of her allegiance to the corporatists and her disdain of the netroots (ie democracy).

So, what to do??? For right now I'd love a better understanding of what and why Edwards has this position. I wonder who he's listening to or who he is beholden to. Anyone have ideas?

Doesn't information itself have a liberal bias? Steven Colbert

by NLinStPaul on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 05:26:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"When we asked [General Wesley Clark] what made him so
sure the Bush administration was headed in this
direction [bombing Iran], he replied: 'You just have
to read what's in the Israeli press. The Jewish
community is divided but there is so much pressure
being channeled from the New York money people to the
office seekers.' "

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/dc-notes-wes-clark-is-_b_37837.html
by hass (hassani1387@yahoo.com) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 05:51:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yep!

Clark is against anything that will lead to the bombing of Iran.

He thinks it would be an even bigger blunder than the invasion of Iraq.

by trillian on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 07:51:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Clark is against anything that will lead to the bombing of Iran.

He thinks it would be an even bigger blunder than the invasion of Iraq.

Not quite.  He only thinks of it as a last option, it seems.

No one should be mistaken:  there is a military option.  We can strike hard enough to set back Iran's nuclear quest by many years, and take out much of their military capacity in the process. And we can at the same time protect most of the oil flow from Iran and deny their capacity to block transit through the Straits of Hormuz.  But we also must recognize the possible consequences of this action: an embittered, vengeful Iran, seeking further destabilization of the region. Far better to pursue dialogue now, whatever the precedents, and save the military option for truly last resort.


Bitsofnews.com Giving you the latest bits.
by Gjermun E Jansen (gjans1@hotmail.com) on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 09:05:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
excellent advice.  I'm not confident they'll take it.
by Compound F on Thu Jan 25th, 2007 at 03:42:04 PM EST


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