But I didn't.  It's 2007 and the Cold War is over.  If anything, Putin's manuevers are keeping us from going to war with Iran, not making it more likely.  

It could go either way.  On the one hand, this may scare the crap out of the leadership in Israel and make them do something really stupid.  On the other hand, this is basically another iteration of MAD.  Israel hasn't had another power in the region with as much firepower or with as good connections.  Now they do.  This might be enough to get the Israeli leadership to back the hell down and start thinking of diplomatic possibilities in the region instead of just breaking out their military whenever they feel threatened.  Iran is alsready checked by US military might to some degree - now Israel will feel a similar pinch from potential Russian forces.

What I think this shows, more than anything else, is the absolute failure of our very own Condi.
She failed in Russia over Iran.  She failed to understand the reaction to the missile shield maneuver.  She is failing today in her much touted (and now downplayed) mideast peace talks in Jerusalem.  They (the State department) knew and abetted the recent Israeli attack against Syria, which we still no very little about, and now I hear Syria is not attending the so-called conference.  Maybe there will some new shoes for her, but biscuit for the Palestinians.

Such a long list of failures.  I bet Bush tells us she is doing a great job real soon.

Say, did you read about the threat against Putin's life?  Either to assassinate him or kidnap him (those really should be two different operations, guys)?

Lots of crap going down, and none of it real good...

~~~~~ 'The highest function of Ecology is the understanding of its consequences'

So perhaps his words aren't meant for Bush. After all, if the administration doesn't attack Iran, he can claim to have had an influence, no? That would increase Russia's stature in the region. But if the administration bombs Iran, he doesn't lose anything for having tried to stop it. I'm sure he'll be all indignant about it too.

But there is another possibility. The war in Iraq is a great boon to Russia - it ties down the US diplomatically and militarily, it continuously degrades US military power, saps international goodwill for the US and strains US budgets. Perhaps Russia is concerned that the US could still retreat to its military bases in the region (including perhaps some of the new ones in Iraq), and force-protect while the country falls apart. By bolstering Iran, the stakes in Iraq increase for the US. Perhaps he just seeks to make sure that the war in Iraq continues to be seen as vital to US interests.

And a last possibility is that he is actually waving a red flag in front of Cheney and the other hawks. Maybe he hopes that the US can be dared into bombing Iran. That would guarantee that the US would stay embroiled in wars all over the region for years to come.

Putin is an ex-spook. He knows how Realpolitik works. He has nothing to win by a swift end of the US war in Iraq, and much to lose. The best outcome for Russia is that the US will lose all credibility in Iraq, so that Russia can come in and offer assistance in the rebuilding of the country. They can point to Chechnya as an example of what they can accomplish. For this to work Iraqis must be truly fed up with the US, and either afraid or angry at Iran. What better way to accomplish all this by daring the US to bomb Iran.

Incidentally, I don't think that Israel possesses weapons strong enough to destroy the bunkers that are supposed to house much of Iran's nuclear facilities. The US develops special weapons for this kind of bombing. Their effect is tremendous, and I'm rather confident in predicting that Iran would claim that the weapons used were tactical nukes. It's an open secret that the US military has sought nuclear bunker buster bombs. They're not supposed to have them yet, but who is going to believe that?