Booman Tribune

Why the Generals May Resign over Iran (Hint: It's the nukes)

by Steven D
Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 12:36:34 PM EST

As you know, the Sunday Times of London reported senior military leaders may resign if Bush orders an attack on Iran. The question is, why now? It's not because aggressive war is a war crime. Nor because the blowback from any attack would greatly increase the risk to our troops in Iraq, and possibly lead to further terrorist attacks. No, it has everything to do with this statement about Iran recently uttered by Vice President Cheney: "All options are on the table."

The generals who may resign do not consider "all options" to mean an attack using only conventional weapons. I think they know that "all options" is specifically being used by Bush and Cheney to signal that America will use nuclear weapons for the second time in our history.

In other words: All Options = Nuclear War

(cont.)

Why do I think this? Because for several years now the Bush administration has been planning for the possibility of using nuclear weapons against "rogue nations." Back in 2004, I wrote a diary which quoted this report by Philip Giraldi, a former CIA agent, in which he cited Pentagon sources who claimed that ...

...Vice President Dick Cheney's office ... has tasked the United States Strategic Command (STRATCOM) with drawing up a contingency plan to be employed in response to another 9/11-type terrorist attack on the United States. The plan includes a large-scale air assault on Iran employing both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons.

This came on the heels of Rumsfeld's revision of our nuclear doctrine, which now permits the use of tactical nuclear weapons as part of a newly developed global strike capability overseen by STRATCOM and embodied in STRATCOM's operational plan for its global strike capability vis-a-vis Iran, CONPLAN 8022:

In November 2003, Rumsfeld approved a plan known as CONPLAN 8022-02, which for the first time established a pre-emptive-strike capability against Iran. That was followed in 2004 by a top-secret "Interim Global Strike Alert Order" that put the military on a state of readiness to launch an airborne and missile attack against Iran, should Bush issue the command. "We're now at the point where we are essentially on alert," said Lt. Gen. Bruce Carlson, commander of the 8th Air Force. "We have the capacity to plan and execute global strikes in half a day or less."

What are Global Strike and CONPLAN 8022 about? They aren't about deterring anyone from acquiring nuclear weapons. What they represent is a fundamental change in the way we confront so-called "terrorist threats" and "rogue nations." In effect, Global Strike and CONPLAN 8022 promote the offensive, preemptive use of America's military power to attack nations who we perceive may become potential threats in the future. In short, it is the the adoption of war fighting as the sole means to deal with potential threats to our national security.

Even more troubling, CONPLAN 8022 specifically, and the Global Strike capability in general, provides for the use of tactical or "low yield" nuclear weapons. The prominent role assigned to nuclear weapons in CONPLAN 8022 was first detailed in the media in a report by William Arkin of the Washington Post published May 15, 2005, entitled "Not Just a Last Resort."

CONPLAN 8022 is different from other war plans in that it posits a small-scale operation and no "boots on the ground." The typical war plan encompasses an amalgam of forces -- air, ground, sea -- and takes into account the logistics and political dimensions needed to sustain those forces in protracted operations. All these elements generally require significant lead time to be effective. (Existing Pentagon war plans, developed for specific regions or "theaters," are essentially defensive responses to invasions or attacks. The global strike plan is offensive, triggered by the perception of an imminent threat and carried out by presidential order.) [...]

By employing all of the tricks in the U.S. arsenal to immobilize an enemy country -- turning off the electricity, jamming and spoofing radars and communications, penetrating computer networks and garbling electronic commands -- global strike magnifies the impact of bombing by eliminating the need to physically destroy targets that have been disabled by other means.

The inclusion, therefore, of a nuclear weapons option in CONPLAN 8022 -- a specially configured earth-penetrating bomb to destroy deeply buried facilities, if any exist -- is particularly disconcerting. The global strike plan holds the nuclear option in reserve if intelligence suggests an "imminent" launch of an enemy nuclear strike on the United States or if there is a need to destroy hard-to-reach targets.

The concept that we might use nuclear weapons to attack Iran's nuclear facilities has gone far beyond just the planning stages, by the way. Last year, Seymour Hersh reported in an article in the New Yorker that since the summer of 2005 US military aircraft have been simulating nuclear attacks against Iranian targets:

Some operations, apparently aimed in part at intimidating Iran, are already under way. American Naval tactical aircraft, operating from carriers in the Arabian Sea, have been flying simulated nuclear-weapons delivery missions—rapid ascending maneuvers known as “over the shoulder” bombing—since last summer, the former official said, within range of Iranian coastal radars.

Hersh and others have reported that the Pentagon has presented administration officials with proposals involving the use of the B61-11 tactical nuclear weapon to destroy Iran's hardened facilities such as its centrifuge program located in Natanz, roughly 200 miles south of Tehran. Although it is believed that the Joint Chiefs have not signed off on the use of such "low yield" nuclear weapons in any proposed attack on Iran, other administration advisers have not been so reluctant. As Hersh noted in his 2006 article, the Defense Science Board was actively advocating for their inclusion in the attack plans:

The adviser added, however, that the idea of using tactical nuclear weapons in such situations has gained support from the Defense Science Board, an advisory panel whose members are selected by Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld. “They’re telling the Pentagon that we can build the B61 with more blast and less radiation,” he said.

The chairman of the Defense Science Board is William Schneider, Jr., an Under-Secretary of State in the Reagan Administration. In January, 2001, as President Bush prepared to take office, Schneider served on an ad-hoc panel on nuclear forces sponsored by the National Institute for Public Policy, a conservative think tank. The panel’s report recommended treating tactical nuclear weapons as an essential part of the U.S. arsenal and noted their suitability “for those occasions when the certain and prompt destruction of high priority targets is essential and beyond the promise of conventional weapons.” Several signers of the report are now prominent members of the Bush Administration, including Stephen Hadley, the national-security adviser; Stephen Cambone, the Under-Secretary of Defense for Intelligence; and Robert Joseph, the Under-Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security.

The B61-11, by the way, is a tactical weapon only in the sense that it carries a nuclear warhead with less than 1 megaton of explosive force. This does not mean it is a "cleaner nuke" or that its explosive power is de minimis. B61-11 bombs allegedly can carry warheads with yields ranging from 10 kilotons (and possibly lower) to as much 340 kilotons. As a means of comparison, the bomb which was detonated over Hiroshima at the end of World War II, and which resulted in the deaths of over 100,000 Japanese civilians had as estimated yield of 15 kilotons.

Based on that, you can see why some of our senior military officers may not be so enamored with the idea of using B61-11 bombs against Iranian targets. Should they be used, the loss of life is likely to be horrendous, both from the blast itself and from the effects of radiation. Yet this is precisely the scenario for which Cheney, Hadley and all the other neocons still serving in the Bush administration have been hoping. The opportunity to finally make the use of our nuclear weapons a reality, again. That it would constitute a crime against humanity in the present circumstances does not appear to distress them in the least.

George Lakoff is right when he claims that we need to face up to the fact that the war Bush and Cheney's are planning is a "nuclear war." Not a garden variety "military strike" surgical or otherwise, but a Nuclear War.

A familiar means of denying a reality is to refuse to use the words that describe that reality. A common form of propaganda is to keep reality from being described. In such circumstances, silence and euphemism are forms of complicity both in propaganda and in the denial of reality. And the media, as well as the major presidential candidates, are now complicit.

The stories in the major media suggest that an attack against Iran is a real possibility and that the Natanz nuclear development site is the number one target. As the above quotes from two of our best sources note, military experts say that conventional "bunker-busters" like the GBU-28 might be able to destroy the Natanz facility, especially with repeated bombings. But on the other hand, they also say such iterated use of conventional weapons might not work, e.g., if the rock and earth above the facility becomes liquefied. On that supposition, a "low yield" "tactical" nuclear weapon, say, the B61-11, might be needed.

If the Bush administration, for example, were to insist on a sure "success," then the "attack" would constitute nuclear war. The words in boldface are nuclear war, that's right, nuclear war -- a first strike nuclear war.

I doubt many Americans would support a war with Iran if they knew that we plan on using nuclear weapons. So, our mission should be clear. The sooner we in the liberal blogosphere can push the mainstream media to convey that message to the American people, the better the odds that we can forestall what would be one of the greatest moral and political failures in American history. The madness of King George still can be reigned in, but only if we do our damnedest to expose his criminal plan for committing a first strike nuclear attack against Iran.

So whether you send a letter to the editor of your local paper, or an email to the media, or merely raise the topic with family and friends, ask them if they support a nuclear war against Iran. Say it just like that: Nuclear War. For that is what Bush is planning, and that is why the Generals are preparing their resignation letters, as we speak.



Display:
by Steven D on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 12:52:57 PM EST
Excellent article. I am forwarding it to everyone in my address book,making copies to post and leave wherever I go, and sending this link to people I know at the St Paul Pioneer Press and Minneapolis Tribune.  

ONward!
by scribe (scribe40@comcast.net) on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 01:07:13 PM EST
Bush has already explicitly threatehend Iran with nuclear attack - a violation of UN Sec Council Resolution 984 which prohibits such threats. And even planning a war of aggression is itself a war crime, for which people have been hanged. Thus any candidate who says that we should leave all options open, is guilty of endorsing a war crime.

Great article about this very issue is at IranAffairs.com:


The double standard could not be more transparent. When Ahmadinejad supposedly said 'Israel must be wiped off the map,' the US media and commentators feigned mass outrage. Some claimed that Ahmadinejad should be indicted for 'inciting genocide' , while others speculated about his sanity. But when Bush threatens to murder hundreds of thousands of innocent men, women and children in a nuclear holocaust, the Western media's silence is deafening.
by hass (hassani1387@yahoo.com) on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 01:32:51 PM EST
what happens if Russia decides to protect Iran, it's business ally, by overtly or covertly attacking our people or warships in the gulf?

what's bu$hco going to do about this? full scale war against Russia?

doubtful.

by Superpole on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 02:08:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm not sure tactical nukes are necessary.

bunker busters similar to what was dropped on Lebanon by Israel may suffice. keep in mind the first wave doesn't have to crack the underground bunkers. a series of attacks applying 1-2 bunker busters to clear the sand/soil out of the way, crack the concrete bunker, then heavy duty conventional missiles or another bunker buster will crack it open and destroy the interior.

by Superpole on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 02:05:53 PM EST
These miscreants left the "unthinkable" behind some time ago.  If they were to actually order and carry out a nuclear strike, what do you think of the odds that there will actually be an election in '08?
by Brad on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 02:41:56 PM EST
If we have another major terrorist attack before Nov. 2008 there won't be an election.

Obama is a Patriot
by Steven D on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 03:19:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This shit just can't happen.

Attacking Iraq for no reason was bad enough... this... well, I just don't know what that word is yet.

by stormbear on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 04:23:42 PM EST
It will not be a big public resignation but a quiet retirement.
by realtime on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 08:46:34 PM EST
If that's the case then I don't get it.  Resigning = throwing your career away (granted they won't starve, but it's still a major step).  In that case, why would they do it quietly?  Just so the decision falls to some other bloke and they don't have to deal with it?  If it has no impact, then they're throwing their careers away for nothing.

Check out my blog, Politics and Soccer.
by a517dogg (adrian [dot] r [dot] martin [at] gmail [dot] com) on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 09:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The US will become the new "Axis of Evil".

Bush desperately wants to start a war with Iran as a last gasp effort to salvage something beyond ignominious defeat for his "Legacy". All of the scenarios spelled out in the War Games the Joint Chiefs did in the last five years have said that starting a war with Iran will inevitably lead to a nuclear first strike against Iran's Natanz and Esfahan facilities.

The War Games Scenario for the Iran War goes like this:

  1. The US or Israel [with US cooperation] prepares to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities at Natanz and Esfahan. A few Generals and Admirals resign but the attack happens anyway. The attack causes major surface damage but does not penetrate through the layers of reinforced concrete and steel to the level of the Centrifuges and Uranium processing facilities. The attack is a failure but it starts a US/Israeli war with Iran.
  2. Iran announces it is withdrawing from the Non-Proliferation Treaty. Iran attacks any oil tankers passing through the Straights of Hormuz and the US Aircraft Carriers and their escorts in the gulf using swarming speedboats, torpedoes and silkworm cruise missiles and sinks at least 1 carrier and several other ships causing 2000-3000 US casualties.
  3. The US Air-force starts large scale bombing of Iran's infrastructure.
  4. Iran's Revolutionary Guard invades southern Iraq with 300,000-400,000 ground troops and cuts off all supplies to US forces in southern and western Iraq.
  5. The US bombs areas of southern Iraq where Iranian soldiers are blocking US supplies and the US bombing causes mass civilian casualties.
  6. The Iraqi Government orders the US to leave Iraq immediately or be attacked by the Iraqi Army. The Iraqi Shiite and Sunni Mullahs issue a Fatwa directing all Insurgents and Militias to attack US soldiers and not each other.
  7. US forces are besieged by 300,000 Iranians and 200,000 Iraqi Army, Insurgents and Militia soldiers. After 60 days of intense fighting and 10,000-20,000 US casualties, the US bases in Iraq run out of fuel, ammunition and food.
  8. The US troops in southern Iraq, western Iraq and Bagdad are forced to retreat under fire to the Kurdish north leaving behind all of their heavy equipment.
  9. The Iranians seize the abandoned US weapons and bring in fuel and supplies and turn the weapons on the US.
  10. The US uses tactical nuclear bombs to attack the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and Militia forces in southern Iraq and nuclear bunker buster bombs to destroy Natanz and Esfahan in Iran. There are 300,000 immediate civilian casualties caused by the blast and radiation and 750,000 cases of radiation poisoning in Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and Northern India.
  11. All Oil production in Iraq and Iran stops for 6-9 months [25% of world oil production]. All Middle-East Oil shipments through the Straights of Hormuz are stopped [20% of world oil production]. All middle-eastern countries together impose a total Oil Embargo on supplies to the US and Israel. Venezuela, Bolivia and Argentina join in the Oil Embargo. Gasoline and Heating Fuel-oil prices rise to $10.00 per gallon, Natural Gas prices rise to $5.00 per CCF and gasoline rationing is imposed. Energy intensive industries shut down. Frequent major blackouts occur crippling the server farms that power the Internet. The US economy suffers a meltdown.
  12. Iran abrogates the Non-Proliferation Treaty and reprocesses Plutonium from their research reactors to produce 1-2 nuclear bombs which are used to destroy Tel Aviv. Israel responds with their own nuclear bombs destroying Tehran.
  13. A general war of all Islam vs. the US and Israel ensues. All US bases in the middle-east are attacked causing 50,000-75,000 US casualties before the US forces can escape. Israel is invaded from all sides by Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Iran, Lebanon and the Palestinian Territories. The US and Israel are branded by the world as the "Axis of Evil".

Imagine a world where the US is reviled by every other nation for the unforgivable damage we have done to innocent civilians. Where the US is under a Permanent Oil Embargo by all OPEC member states. Where Canada, Mexico and South America join Europe and Asia to ban all trade with the US and evict all US Military bases from their soil. Where all US citizens with any connection to the Bush Administration are under indictment by The Hague and are put on a No-Fly List banning them from from travel outside the US. Where all US multi-national corporations are boycotted or banned by the rest of the world or are forced to split and change their names to avoid anti-US sentiment.

All this and more can happen if Bush decides to Nuke Iran.

Bush is the Decider. He makes the Decisions and the rest of us have to live with the consequences. Bush's Decisions about the Middle-East have been uniformly bad. Some of them have been worse than bad; they have crossed the line into the zone of Criminal Negligence and Suicidal Stupidity.

The worst Decision Bush has made in his two terms as President has been to insist that the use of Nuclear Bunker Buster bombs remain in the Pentagon's planning for dealing with Iran.

Iran may be telling the truth or Iran may be lying when they say that they are only trying to enrich Uranium for nuclear power. If Iran is telling the truth and their goal is just nuclear power, then using a Nuke against Iran will guarantee that Iran will go for The Bomb in self defense. If Iran is lying then using a Nuke against Iran will only delay Iran getting The Bomb by one or two years and will guarantee that they will attempt to use it against the US or Israel.

The US B61-11 Nuclear Bunker Buster bomb is only able to penetrate hard rock to a depth of 10-20 feet before it detonates. At 20ft penetration and maximum yield, the B61-11 can only destroy a facility that is buried less than 600ft below ground. Blast forces can be blocked by simple inexpensive materials like a 100ft thick layer of gravel or bags of sand or granulated salt. The limitations of the B61-11 have been known for years and any Iranian weapons facility will have been built with those limits in mind.

If Iran is actually trying to build a Nuclear Bomb, they will probably have done what Iraq and Pakistan did by building a secret second facility buried deep under ground under the publicly visible facilities at Natanz and Esfahan.

The Natanz facility in Iran is known to have a double roof of thick reinforced concrete with 50-75ft of gravel between the concrete layers. The roof is sufficient to protect against any non-nuclear bunker buster (even the US air forces MOAB bomb). Natanz could probably also survive a low yield Nuclear Bunker Buster bomb.

If the US actually used the B61-11 bomb in Iran against the Natanz or Esfahan facilities more than 500,000 civilian deaths could be expected in iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan and India.

by DoctorD on Wed Feb 28th, 2007 at 09:11:51 PM EST


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