Booman Tribune

We've Passed the Tipping Point on Global Warming

by Steven D
Sun May 20th, 2007 at 04:12:24 PM EST

Via The Independent:
The earth's ability to soak up the gases causing global warming is beginning to fail because of rising temperatures, in a long-feared sign of "positive feedback," new research reveals today.

Climate change itself is weakening one of the principal "sinks" absorbing carbon dioxide - the Southern Ocean around Antarctica - a new study has found.

As a result, atmospheric CO2 levels may rise faster and bring about rising temperatures more quickly than previously anticipated. Stabilising the CO2 level, which must be done to bring the warming under control, is likely to become much more difficult, even if the world community agrees to do it. [...]

"This is the first unequivocal detection of a carbon sink weakening because of recent climate change," said the lead author of the study, Corinne Le Quéré, of the University of East Anglia. "This is serious. Whenever the world has greatly warmed in the past, the weakening of CO2 sinks has contributed to it."

Others have characterized the study's results in even more alarming tones:

Ian Totterdell, a climate modeller at the Met Office Hadley Centre, described the research as “an important piece of work”.

He said: “This is the first time we have been able to get convincing evidence that a change in the uptake of CO2 by the oceans is linked to climate change. “It’s one of many feedbacks we didn’t expect to kick in until some way into the 21st century.”

We are witnessing changes that would have been unthinkable only a few years ago. Changes that were not predicted to occur for several more decades are showing up now, as you read these words of mine. Temperatures and sea levels rising faster than our climate change models predicted. Glaciers vanishing before our eyes. Ice melting in the interior of Antarctica in a region the size of California, where ice has never melted before in recorded history.

Warm temperatures melted an area of western Antarctica that adds up to the size of California in January 2005, scientists report.

Satellite data collected by the scientists between July 1999 and July 2005 showed clear signs that melting had occurred in multiple distinct regions, including far inland and at high latitudes and elevations, where melt had been considered unlikely.

Ocean life is dying, creating "dead zones" where nothing lives. Ocean wind speeds have picked up, leading to more violent ocean storms and hurricanes. The world is experiencing unprecedented levels of drought, wildfires and the spread of infectious diseases. We are the "beneficiaries" of "positive feedbacks" that may make it impossible to control the rate at which the planet's climate is changing:

Some researchers fear that feedbacks may make global warming happen much faster, and be harder to control, than is generally appreciated. The pessimism about the future of scientists such as James Lovelock is largely based on the fact that most of the feedbacks in the Earth’s system are likely to work against us.

All while Exxon continues to pour millions of dollars into the coffers of conservative think tanks which seek to deny that global climate change is occurring. All while the Bush administration continues to mount a diplomatic offensive to prevent any global action on steps to reduce carbon emissions and other green house gases.

Negotiators from the United States are trying to weaken the language of a climate change declaration set to be unveiled at next month's G-8 summit of the world's leading industrial powers, according to documents obtained yesterday by The Washington Post. [...]

The documents show that American officials are also trying to eliminate draft language that says, "We acknowledge that the U.N. climate process is the appropriate forum for negotiating future global action on climate change."

Let me be blunt. I fear for my children and my children's children in the coming century. I fear for humankind in general. We have opened a Pandora's box of ills with our continued use of fossil fuels to power our ever increasing energy consumption and prop up our ever more unsustainable lifestyles. We are driving a knife into the heart of our future with every day we delay taking action to confront this crisis.

The question isn't whether global climate change will be severe or mild, the question now is how many people, now alive or yet to be born, will suffer and die an untimely death as a result of our failure to act now? How much blood will be spilled in the coming wars over resources like water? How many regions in the world will see their supplies of safe drinking water diminish as a result of global climate change? How many cities and their citizens will be drowned in the floods and hurricanes of the coming century? How many will starve from the loss of arable land and decreases in agricultural yields?

How many of our descendants will curse us for our shortsightedness and judge us harshly for the collective failure of political will necessary to prevent or ameliorate this catastrophe in the making? I fear it will be most of them. And they will be right to do so.



Display:
Five years ago we were arguing over whether global warming existed at all, while the signs piled up that it did.  Only now is the Bush Administration even thinking about acknowledging it.  Of course now they've decided to bog it down by arguing over what's causing it.

Five years from now, we'll be arguing if there's going to be any actual impact from it while those ice packs continue to melt and the positive feedback weather events get worse and worse, regardless if it's a Democrat in the White House or not.  We won't do anything about it then, either.

Ten years from now we'll be arguing how bad that impact might be as droughts and wildfires and hurricanes get so bad in this country Hurricane Katrina will look like a bad day at the office.

Fifteen years from now we'll be arguing over what to do about the fact that most people on Earth will be starving or without drinkable water.  It'll affect us too, especially when the coastal cities start going away.  No snow in the Rockies or New England means no snow melt for the West.  Canada will start looking pretty good.

Twenty years from now we'll be wondering who to blame for not doing anything about it until it was too late.  Of course by then with privatized water utilities an even bigger business than energy, it won't matter much.  Somebody of course will help it along with a nuke or three, I'm thinking.  After that, all bets are off.

Here's the depressing part.  Global warming will kill billions in my lifetime.  The Pentagon knows this.  The resulting wars and diseases and disasters involving what arable land and drinkable water left will kill billions more.

Maybe cutting the Earth's population in half will help us realize we screwed up.  Sad part is, what's left will get nuked, and then we'll all lose.  All in all, I don't feel so bad about not having kids at 31.  I wouldn't want them now, because there's a pretty fair chance they wouldn't make it to 31 if they were born today.

Pretty ignominious end for the species.  "Here likes humanity, killed off by being the dominant sentient species on a planet and not having the sense to use it to accomplish anything greater than exceedingly efficient ways to kill themselves."

I'm sure whatever else is out there in the universe will get a real kick out of the archaeological digs.

by Zandar1 on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 09:10:20 PM EST
Wow...that's not fair!  I and my family have been the world's biggest pessimists for years.  Your just trying to steal our title!

There's a sense that people in America aren't getting the truth. - George W. Bush (Gee, ya think?)
by Kamakhya (onyx at earthlink dot net) on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 09:31:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe, but if history's taught me one thing, it's "you never go broke betting on the stupidity of humanity."

We should be working towards concrete action to solve this problem.  We're not.  And the corporate masters of our planet will make sure we don't.  Because somebody's going to figure out eventually that if humanity caused global warming with carbon emissions, then somebody's going to have to pay to fix it.

The energy companies won't be left holding the bag.  They're too busy gouging us for billions.  They see Democrats mention "windfall taxes" and they are panicking.  It's not too far from there to "global warming taxes" on these companies, or on those who use their products.  They've got a good thing going, legalized oligarchical collusion.  They rake in hundreds of billions for a commodity they are doing everything they can to make scarce.

We'd be drilling in ANWR right now if the oil companies wanted to.  They don't.  They like the price of oil right where it is, in a situation where they collectively control every stage of production and refining so that a 1% decrease in supply means a 10% increase in price.

The last global recession drove oil into the basement.  The energy companies learned their lesson.  Even if the economy collapses, you can bet their controlled scarcity and constant demand will keep oil prices right where they are.

Gas prices have jumped more than 50% since January.  We've accepted this as canon now, the fact there is nothing we can do about it. Somehow, the Democrats are no longer mentioning "windfall profits taxes" on Big Oil anymore.  So, expect more "refinery problems" and "unexpected outages" and "longer than expected recovery from production setbacks" while oil companies have finally learned the chief lesson of 1978:

Whoever controls the bottleneck wins.

So yes, I am pessimistic.  We don't see the forest for the trees anymore.

Soon there won't be a forest.

by Zandar1 on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 10:06:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I completely agree with you and I have been preparing my family.  I was just kidding, though it is nothing to kid about.  I think we are fucked and my kid doesn't want kids and I can't blame her even though I really want a grandchild.  We are fucked.  It will only get better after it gets worse and we just don't know when worse will happen.


There's a sense that people in America aren't getting the truth. - George W. Bush (Gee, ya think?)
by Kamakhya (onyx at earthlink dot net) on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 02:13:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Zandar1, you write, "We should be working towards concrete action to solve this problem..."

You do not understand.  It is TOO LATE to solve the problem.  The notion that "the problem can be solved" at this point is like giving a tetanus shot to someone who already has lockjaw.  It won't help: the patient is going to die.

There is nothing to be done but dig graves for your loved ones and prepare for starvation and pestilence.

Brendan Calling John Mccain

by brendan on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 11:54:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
someone needs a drink.
by BooMan on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 12:20:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But that's beside the point. ;)

I get ranty about the topic, but I feel very strongly that it is too late to do anything about global warming.  Anything we do now won't begin to have an impact for years. That's why it was important to take action in the 1990s.  It's simply too late.

I still compost, try to reduce my carbon footprint, etc, but I know it's useless.  Depressing, but totally accurate.  Most of the planet, I fear, is in the "denial" stage of death. I've gotten past denial and anger to acceptance.

Brendan Calling John Mccain

by brendan on Mon May 21st, 2007 at 01:29:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How many descendants will there be (left) to condemn us?? The answer to that one is what I fear.

It is time for Democrats to remember who got us in this mess, oppose them and not each other.
by keepinon (jaukkuri@sbcglobal.net) on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 10:13:17 PM EST
That butterfly ballot didn't help, but what was it they said about a butterfly batting its wings in Brazil affecting the weather in Chicago?
by BooMan on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 05:28:18 PM EST
Thanks Booman for setting me straight.  It must be all those damn Brazilian butterflies.  Can't be the 6 billion human beings that are causing this.

Obama is a Patriot
by Steven D on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 05:41:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Heh.

I mean the complexity (chaos) theory that holds that minor differences in initial conditions can have huge macro effects.

That is why, I think, events are moving faster than predicted.  

by BooMan on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 05:49:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
very few if any descendants will curse us cause they will all be dead!
by billjpa (billjpa@aol.com) on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 06:07:20 PM EST
Deadlock for UN climate meeting
UN-hosted talks on climate change have ended in deadlock.

They were aimed at paving the way for the climate summit taking place in Bali in December which will focus on how to take forward the Kyoto Protocol.

However, the US said it was unlikely to take part in negotiations at the end of this year on a global agreement to cut emissions of carbon dioxide.

The UN acknowledged "sticking points", but said some issues had been resolved at the meeting.

...

However, Dr Harlan Watson, the United States chief negotiator on climate, told the BBC: "I think there's a lot going on but I certainly wouldn't want to raise expectations, however, that there's going to be some sort of a new negotiation under the framework convention itself.

"I just think that it's not going to happen. It's certainly not something we think the time is right for."

..not something we think the time is right for

WTF!  When is the time right, then?

John McCain - Less Jobs More War

by ask on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 07:21:48 PM EST
Harken back to when LA hosted the Olympics. Californians were asked to lend a helping hand to offset the catastrophe known as a mega traffic jam. The word went out, the people of SoCal heeded the message, worked together willingly and the end result was a stunningly nearly empty freeway system to the cheering crowds of Olympics gatherers.

Americans are at their best when challenged but as long as Bush's administration resists leadership we are instead splitered, without goals and certainly without positive results and we are headed for a colassal traffic jam.


No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.

by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 07:22:49 PM EST
This is called "getting what we deserve", and it is the number one reason i never wanted to have children.

"Past the tipping point".  Those of us who've been watching know that the 1990s was the decade to change our ways.  We didn't and now it's too late.

My only hope is that humanity will be destroyed before we can take the rest of the planet with us. And if the rest of the planet goes too.. oh well.  Kinda too late to worry about that now,isn't it?

Brendan Calling John Mccain

by brendan on Sun May 20th, 2007 at 09:44:27 PM EST


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