Booman Tribune

The Politics of Withdrawal

by BooMan
Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 01:17:47 PM EST

Even though I disagree with a good deal of his analysis I am grateful to Michael Duffy for examining what a U.S. withdrawal from Iraq would look like and some of the risks. Reading his lengthy piece in Time I am reminded of the inadvisability of leaving the withdrawal planning to the current administration. Duffy doesn't discuss this...rather he repeats a meme that is all over the media today. From Fred Hiatt and Paul Kane and Shailagh Murray in the Washington Post, to Noam Levey in the Los Angeles Times, the word is that Harry Reid is to blame for the gridlock in Congress. Here's Duffy:

On July 17, in yet another example of how unhelpful the political conversation has become, workers laid out cots and pillows in a marble cloakroom on Capitol Hill as the Senate prepared for an all-night debate on another in a line of doomed-to-fail resolutions...Many Republicans might support such a plan in private if they did not feel that the Democrats were keeping them up all night to score points at the President's expense.

Duffy offers no evidence in support of this contention that Republicans were inclined to work across the aisle. Levey offers no evidence for this either:

Sen. Harry Reid offered his cooperation in December when the Iraq Study Group unveiled its recommendations with a plaintive call for a bipartisan effort to change the course of the war.

"Democrats will work with our Republican colleagues," promised the Nevada Democrat and soon-to-be majority leader, just weeks after an election that swept Democrats into the congressional majority on a wave of public frustration over Iraq.

Eight bitter months and nine major Iraq-related votes later, the meaning of Reid's pledge has come into sharp focus: Democrats will work with any GOP lawmaker willing to vote for a mandatory troop withdrawal; other Republicans need not apply.

This bellicose, uncompromising legislative strategy — on display again this week as Reid refused to allow votes on nonbinding GOP-backed Iraq proposals — has been an obstacle to any real bipartisan compromise on the war all year. And it effectively ended any chance that a significant number of Republican lawmakers critical of the war would join with Democrats this summer on any Iraq-related legislation.

Here's Kane and Murray:

Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid offered no apologies yesterday for his decision to reject compromise efforts to alter President Bush's Iraq strategy that had the support of a growing number of Republicans...

...The Democratic leader's unyielding stance has frustrated many lawmakers, who had hoped the Iraq debate would avoid the partisan pitfalls that have stymied so much legislation in recent years in the narrowly divided Senate...

...Reid's insistence on the deadlines means that compromise measures with bipartisan support cannot be put to a vote.

Here's Hiatt:

A large majority of senators from both parties favor a shift in the U.S. mission that would involve substantially reducing the number of American forces over the next year or so and rededicating those remaining to training the Iraqi army, protecting Iraq's borders and fighting al-Qaeda. President Bush and his senior aides and generals also support this broad strategy, which was formulated by the bipartisan Baker-Hamilton commission...

The decision of Democrats led by Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (Nev.) to deny rather than nourish a bipartisan agreement is, of course, irresponsible...

....For now Mr. Reid's cynical politicking and willful blindness to the stakes in Iraq don't matter so much. The result of his maneuvering was to postpone congressional debate until September, when Gen. David H. Petraeus, commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, will report on results of the surge -- in other words, just the outcome the White House was hoping for...

...a Democratic strategy of trying to use Iraq as a polarizing campaign issue and as a club against moderate Republicans who are up for reelection will certainly have the effect of making consensus impossible -- and deepening the trouble for Iraq and for American security.

All of this hand-wringing analysis entirely misses the point that George W. Bush is in the midst of a complete constitutional meltdown and is asserting powers he has no right to assert. There is not an ounce of bipartisanship coming from the White House...not one ounce. Not on subpoenas, not on appointments, not on domestic policy (where he threatens to veto everything), and not on Iraq (where he threatens to do the same). All evidence suggests that Bush will reject any effort to withdrawal troops and will rebuff even entreaties from his own party.

Levey, at least, touches on this:

Reid and his allies, enraged by years of being brushed off and belittled by the White House, do not believe the president will respond to legislation that merely urges, rather than orders, a new course, even if it is backed by substantial numbers of congressional Republicans.

"The president doesn't take advice," said Sen. Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), chairman of the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee and an architect of the current strategy.

The rest of the articles pay this analysis no heed. Duffy lays out a plan for withdrawal that focuses primarily on risk reduction. He makes a good effort to focus our minds on the logistical challenges. He mentions the time it would take to pull out tens of thousands of troops, contractors, and Iraqi refugees, and then goes on:

Slowing things down further is the sheer volume of stuff that we would have to take with us — or destroy if we couldn't. Military officials recently told Congress that 45,000 ground-combat vehicles — a good portion of the entire U.S. inventory of tanks, helicopters, armored personnel carriers, trucks and humvees — are now in Iraq. They are spread across 15 bases, 38 supply depots, 18 fuel-supply centers and 10 ammo dumps. These items have to be taken back home or destroyed, lest they fall into the hands of one faction or another. Pentagon officials will try to bring back as much of the downtime gear as possible — dining halls, office buildings, vending machines, furniture, mobile latrines, computers, paper clips and acres of living quarters.

No doubt it will be a daunting challenge and, done incorrectly, could lead to needless loss of life and equipment. Yet, what kind of planning can we expect from a government that rejects the necessity for withdrawal in the first place?

Rather than questioning Harry Reid's wisdom these pundits should be asking how we can put in a commander-in-chief that will truly do what Sen. Lamar Alexander correctly perceives must be done.

"We don't need a Democrat or a Republican plan in Iraq, we need an American plan in Iraq," said Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.), one of the leading co-sponsors of the Iraq Study Group legislation. "Now is the time to look for seeds of consensus."

Whatever that consensus is or becomes it will never be embraced by the administration and it is unwise to entrust them with the implementation of that consensus. Given the President and Vice-President's brazenly illegal activities, the consensus should be for double impeachment followed by a sensible withdrawal from Iraq that is carried out by a bipartisan caretaker administration that is truly committed to the plan.



Display:
here's something else that must not be left to the next administration...

george and dick not only have to go, every unconstitutional provision that they've put in place to exercise unfettered power has to be EXORCISED prior to 20 january 2009... i don't want ANY of those power levers available to ANY president of ANY party... i shudder when i think of hillary at the held with that kind of power and become positively catatonic when i think of giuliani or frederick of hollywood...

visit my blog - http://www.takeitpersonally.blogspot.com/

by profmarcus (profmarcus@lycos.com) on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 03:07:05 PM EST
Once again, the likely consequences of a "precipitous withdrawal" from Iraq for the US are, well, nothing but a little embarrassment. The consequences for Iraq are pretty dire, but inevitable now that the stabilizing influence of Saddam's dictatorship have been removed. Iran will of course become embroiled in the mess, mostly to our benefit, along with Saudi Arabia, Syria, and quite likely Turkey -- whose conflict with the Kurds can be ignored by NATO because moving 130,000 troops across the border to combat a handful of guerillas can hardly be considered a defensive maneuver. The good money we're currently throwing after bad money could be better directed to toughening border and port security and sending covert services after al Qaeda.

Short version: We can do nothing beneficial there. We suffer no serious harm by pulling out. Let's go.

---Cthulhu for President: Why vote for the lesser evil?

by eodell (eodell at naqada dot org) on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 03:12:37 PM EST
The problem, of course, is that Bush has set a new precedent - Turkey's defensive maneuver of 130,000 soldiers into northern Iraq would be an interesting parallel to America's defensive maneuver of 130,000 soldiers into southern Iraq.

The ultimate solution is fairly simple (though not easy) - separate Iraq into Shiite, Sunni, and Kurdish divisions, ask the Arab league to form a police force to patrol the Sunni/Shiite border lest their Sunni brothers be slaughtered once we evacuate, and then position three divisions of troops in Kurdistan where they will truly be welcomed with flowers since they will keep the Turks from invading Kurdistan.  That allows the US to maintain a forward military presence in the area, our troops will no longer be target dummies in a shooting gallery, and the Islamic civil war in Mesopotamia will peter out instead of developing into a full-fledged genocide.  Or, if the Arab League decides not to intervene or intervenes on the side of the Sunnis against the Shiites then the resulting blood will be on their hands, not ours once we leave.

The British social experiment that was Iraq is clearly a failure.  Pull the plug on it and withdraw our troops ASAP.

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 04:36:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
read this http://brilliantatbreakfast.blogspot.com/2007/07/we-just-keep-changing-rules-until.html

When George W. Bush was running for president in 2000, Gail Sheehy wrote a profile for Vanity Fair in which she wrote about how Bush refuses to lose, and when he's losing, he just changes the rules

and then decide whether the White House will ever dance on any of these issues...

george bush is not used to losing--at a time when it might have done some good, daddy's friends always bailed him out--and he's not about to start accepting it now!

by lutton on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 04:01:52 PM EST
no evidence about the r's inclinations to work across the aisle?

sure there is...ain't gonna happen:

WASHINGTON -- This year Senate Republicans are threatening filibusters to block more legislation than ever before, a pattern that's rooted in -- and could increase -- the pettiness and dysfunction in Congress.

The trend has been evolving for 30 years. The reasons behind it are too complex to pin on one party. [ed. note: BAH!] But it has been especially pronounced since the Democrats' razor-thin win in last year's election, giving them effectively a 51-49 Senate majority, and the Republicans' exile to the minority.

Seven months into the current two-year term, the Senate has held 42 "cloture" votes aimed at shutting off extended debate -- filibusters, or sometimes only the threat of one -- and moving to up-or-down votes on contested legislation. Under Senate rules that protect a minority's right to debate, these votes require a 60-vote supermajority in the 100-member Senate.

[...]

This year Republicans also have blocked votes on immigration legislation, a no-confidence resolution for Attorney General Alberto Gonzales and major legislation dealing with energy, labor rights and prescription drugs.

Nearly 1 in 6 roll-call votes in the Senate this year have been cloture votes. If this pace of blocking legislation continues, this 110th Congress will be on track to roughly triple the previous record number of cloture votes -- 58 each in the two Congresses from 1999-2002, according to the Senate Historical Office.

[...]

"The minority party has decided we have to get to 60 votes on almost everything we vote on of substance," said Sen. Claire McCaskill, D-Mo. "That's not the way this place is supposed to work."

[...]

To which Reid responds: "The problem we have is that we don't have many moderate Republicans. I don't know what we can do to create less cloture votes other than not file them, just walk away and say, 'We're not going to do anything.' That's the only alternative we have."

Some Republicans say that Reid forces cloture votes just so he complain that they're obstructing him.

[...]

Republicans also say that Democrats are forgetting how routinely they threatened filibusters only a few years ago when they were the minority, especially to block many of President Bush's judicial nominees. Back then, Republicans were so mad that they considered trying to change Senate rules to eliminate filibusters -- but didn't.

[...]

Republican Senate leader McConnell said Friday in a news conference that when he became minority leader, "it was not my goal to see us do nothing. I mean, you can always use the next election as a rationale for not doing anything. But as you all know, we've had a regularly scheduled election every two years since 1788, so there's always an election right around the corner."

[...]

McClatchy Newspapers 2007

they're not taking to being the minority very well when under presure. they are, however, being rather more effective at stonewalling and casting the blame on the d's for the stalemate that has developed.

as to how the stalemate relates to elections, past and future. mr. mcconnell should re-visit the 2006 results...as should mr. reid...and do the job the country expects them to, especially in regard to iraq.

makes one wonder why the d's weren't employing these tactics more effectively the past 6 1/2 years.

nevermind.

lTMF'sA




the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 05:49:28 PM EST
...your take on the stupidity of Hiatt and various others in the media, nor for putting even a smidgen of trust for the Cheney-(Bush) Administration to carry out a withdrawal plan.

What I want to know, however, is why it will supposedly take so long to withdraw (at Time and the Baltimore Sun both claim. When the NeoCons originally planned to start withdrawing in September 2003, they expected to be done by December 2003 (leaving in place 30-40,000 residual troops). Of course, they figured that they would be leaving with garlands of flowers thrown over their tank cannons and Ahmad Chalabi in the catbird's seat. But still, this scenario of a necessarily long withdrawal seems overdone, in my concededly non-military opinion.

"We're trying to give the illusion of due diligence." --Bennett Holiday to Jimmy Pope in Syriana

by Meteor Blades (tleelange@hotmail.com) on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 02:14:33 PM EST
I don't know how long it would take, but if we want to keep most of our stuff we are going to need to start moving that first.  Then diplomats and non-essential personnel (along with political refugees), and finally the contractors and military.

It could take a while to do it well.

by BooMan on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 02:52:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am really saddened by the lack of urgency. I think too few are aware of just how bad the situation could become.
by AliceDem on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 02:59:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In return for Republican support in impeaching and removing both Bush and Cheney the Democrats would support Richard Lugar and Arlen Spector as replacements, conceding that they could both resume their seats in the Senate in 2009 since neither is running for president or their own Senate seat in 2008.

I'm not sure if the bargain would pass Constitutional mustard, but I'd like to see something like this floated to the GOP - it's their country going to hell in a hand-basket too.

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 04:24:27 PM EST
How about in exchange for impeaching Bush we offer Republican Senators amnesty from any future war crimes proceeding?
by AliceDem on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 06:06:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That works for me too! >:)

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Sat Jul 21st, 2007 at 11:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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