Booman Tribune

Steve Clemons on War with Iran

by BooMan
Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:11:03 PM EST

Steve Clemons, who works with my brother at the New America Foundation, has a piece up at Salon that argues that Bush will not attack Iran. Steve has great sources and he makes a compelling argument. But what disturbs me are his caveats.

One member of Cheney's national security staff, David Wurmser, worried out loud that Cheney felt that his wing was "losing the policy argument on Iran" inside the administration -- and that they might need to "end run" the president with scenarios that may narrow his choices. The option that Wurmser allegedly discussed was nudging Israel to launch a low-yield cruise missile strike against the Natanz nuclear reactor in Iran, thus "hopefully" prompting a military reaction by Tehran against U.S. forces in Iraq and the Gulf. When queried about Wurmser's alleged comments, a senior Bush administration official told the New York Times, "The vice president is not necessarily responsible for every single thing that comes out of the mouth of every single member of his staff."

And:

What we should worry about, however, is the continued effort by the neocons to shore up their sagging influence. They now fear that events and arguments could intervene to keep what once seemed like a "nearly inevitable" attack from happening. They know that they must keep up the pressure on Bush and maintain a drumbeat calling for war.

They are doing exactly this during September and October in a series of meetings organized by the American Enterprise Institute on Iran and Iraq designed to reemphasize the case for hawkish, interventionist deployments in Iraq and a military, regime-change-oriented strike against Iran. And through Op-Eds and the serious political media, the "bomb Iran now" crowd believes they must undermine those in and out of government proposing alternatives to bombing and keep the president and his people saturated with pro-war mantras.

We should also worry about the kind of scenario David Wurmser floated, meaning an engineered provocation. An "accidental war" would escalate quickly and "end run," as Wurmser put it, the president's diplomatic, intelligence and military decision-making apparatus. It would most likely be triggered by one or both of the two people who would see their political fortunes rise through a new conflict -- Cheney and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

That kind of war is much more probable and very much worth worrying about.

Could Clemons come any closer to predicting a false flag operation...another terrorist attack, this time engineered by people connected to Dick Cheney...that would cause a war that the president doesn't want?

This is basically a new version of the Bay of Pigs...where hardliners calculated that once the war started the president would have no choice but to fight it to the finish. They miscalculated the character of JFK, but George W. Bush is no JFK.

If Clemons was trying to be reassuring, he just scared the crap out of me.



Display:
Next time someone talks about the government within thegovernment, don't be so quick to call them crazy..

Viva Presidente Ezequiel - Aquí no hay quien viva!
by anarchronarchist (mincers (-at-) hotmail (-dot-) com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:29:14 PM EST
You have to wonder if Clemons' sources are playing him to give Bush credit for being the reluctant decider when war with Iran does break out.  "I didn't want no war, but damn them terrorist Quds forces (and Cheney) made me do it!"

Obama is a Patriot
by Steven D on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:31:10 PM EST
Good point, Steven.  This is not out of the realm of reason.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"
by MikeInOhio (miken45054@yahoo.com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:35:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It could very well just be cover for Bush, but as I pointed out with this article today I think Bush already has all the cover he needs for a "false flag op" or "accident"...the tens of thousands of private mercs in Iraq.

Who's keeping an eye on them, exactly?

by Zandar1 on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:44:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In any event, Iran won't roll over. They'll be ready

Iran draws up plans to bomb Israel

"TEHRAN, Iran - The deputy commander of Iran's air force said Wednesday that plans have been drawn up to bomb Israel if the Jewish state attacks Iran, according to the semiofficial Fars news agency."

Also China and Russia has warned againt an attack on Iran.

That being said, to correct the Iraq mistake - Bush gave Iraq to Iran - neoCONs have been frothing to open a  new front.  Could be to distract from the ongoing serious financial collapse. We hope they'll be too busy tending the meltdown.

In the next 3 months, 450,000 people face losing their homes, nothing the government can do to help

Yesterday, the punch bowl was restored and Bernanke shot the dollar.  Now, the Saudis are in fright, mulling a stampede.

Yep, Bush will sure leave a legacy - The Weimar republic of America.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 03:32:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No, Clemons would be hard to play. It's his sources who are being played. Gates, Rice are you listening?
by John Shreffler on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 05:40:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
That so many of us in the blogosphere see this as a plausible scenario indicates, I think, how dangerous things really are right now.  You would think that with what we have experienced in Iraq, to have anyone believe that if we just bomb the shit out of the Iranians that the people will be so grateful for what we've done to their evil leaders and their ruthless ambitions that they will rise up and embrace some kind of people powered Democratic revolution is plain old Bill Kristol nuttiness.

The two minute warning on the ultimate neocon fantasy is staring them in the face and they have to find some way to get that ball down the field and into the world war end zone before the buzzer sounds.  They are going to do whatever it takes, regardless of what the President might or might not want.  Bush's wishes are nothing but a minor, inconvenient distraction to those vested in a war with Iran.  If push comes to shove with Cheney and his minions, Bush will not be relevant.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"

by MikeInOhio (miken45054@yahoo.com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:34:23 PM EST
Gleiwitz Incident:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gleiwitz_incident

Also keep in mind that there are black ops going on inside Iran. One of those could spark off something on the Iranian border with Iraq and be completely invisible even to the U.S. commanders in  the field in Iraq. That was why the NSC was convinced that the North Vietnamese had attacked our destroyers in the Tonkin Gulf incident.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gulf_of_Tonkin_Incident

Like in 1964, a lot of our black ops inside Iran are using non-US assets, most notably MEK who have their own agendas and may also be reporting to Mossad as well as the CIA. "Freelance? I"m surprised and shocked, shocked, I tell you!"

by John Shreffler on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 02:44:46 PM EST
Silesia... Silesian Steel... Brown Brothers, Herriman.. Prescott Bush... Hitler... a region plundered...  Millions dead

Iraq... Iraqi Oil... Carlyle Group... GHW and GW Bush... Saddam and Osama... a region plundered.. 1 Million dead and counting

A pattern...

Viva Presidente Ezequiel - Aquí no hay quien viva!

by anarchronarchist (mincers (-at-) hotmail (-dot-) com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 03:02:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They are doing exactly this during September and October in a series of meetings organized by the American Enterprise Institute on Iran and Iraq designed to reemphasize the case for hawkish, interventionist deployments in Iraq and a military, regime-change-oriented strike against Iran.

Anyone up for some informational picketing?

by AliceDem on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 03:41:40 PM EST
The nuclear pretext for attacking Iran is that Iran has "undeclared nuclear facilities" - but the facts say otherwise.
by hass (hassani1387@yahoo.com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 04:29:56 PM EST
"The nuclear pretext for attacking Iran is that Iran has 'undeclared nuclear facilities' - ..."

I thought it was "undeclared nuclear intentions"?  At least, according to the Pretender.

by VizierVic (VizierVic@hotmail.com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 04:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Acually, accorinding to The Pretender's formulation, it was "intent to get the capability" of making nuclear weapons...which of course, applies to pretty much any country with any sort of nuclear program...
by hass (hassani1387@yahoo.com) on Wed Sep 19th, 2007 at 05:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think Clemons is off the mark also. For me I see that for the neocon crazies, (and that means all people who embrace the neocon dogma, not just the Cheney/Kristol elite), their #1 goal, bar none, is to initiate an attack on Iran before they leave office, thereby guaranteeing an extended climate of war and chaos in the Middle East for the foreseeable future.

And because the neocons are basically sociopaths, there are no restraints embedded in their psyches as to what low tactics they're willing to employ in the pursuit of that end. Wurmser's remarks about and 'end run' epitomize exactly that ethical and moral and humanistic vacuum that is at the very heart of the neocon pseudo-soul.

Denial is our most dangerous adversary.

by sbj on Thu Sep 20th, 2007 at 09:27:11 AM EST
When do you do an end run around the CEO or Captain or Decider-in-Chief?

When he is unable to listen to reason (medicated, drunk, idiotic, brainwashed) or when your arguments are not compelling and provable.

Is the President incompetent under the Constitution?

Or is the neocon argument flimsier than a house of cards?

So, does Bush bring his portapotty with him everywhere so that Cheney's minions don't get a chance to collect medical samples?  Bush may possibly be willing to retire to his ranch in South America with no extradition and lots of security, but Cheney will never voluntarily yield power.

by hauksdottir on Fri Sep 21st, 2007 at 06:29:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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