Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

Iowa Prognostication

by BooMan
Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 01:37:36 PM EST

The Iowa caucuses are polling too close to call between Clinton, Edwards, and Obama. However, there are some hints. The Southern Political Report tells us that 'InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research has been conducting a daily tracking poll among likely voters in the Jan. 3 Iowa Democratic Caucus. Here's their most significant finding:

Critically, Edwards was the second choice of 62% of those who supported other candidates that did not receive the required 15% of the vote. Clinton was the second choice of 21% and Obama of 17%.
Using the reallocation methodology InsiderAdvantage used in 2004 – which correctly indicated a fairly comfortable win for John Kerry – our new poll reveals that, if the caucuses were held today, the reallocated final outcome would be:
Edwards: 41%
Clinton: 34%
Obama: 25%

I'm going on kind of gut feel for this right now, but those results seem right to me. Actually, I don't see Edwards topping 40% and I don't see Obama necessarily coming in third, but I do think it is close enough that second choices and strength in rural areas will be enough to push Edwards over the top. Whether Edwards scores a rather large 7% margin or a more narrow 1-3% margin will depend on how well he does among first choices.

And, of course, I could be completely wrong. There are polls out that show Clinton pulling away and Obama with a strong lead. Those numbers could hold up.

For the sake of a long primary season, I hope Edwards wins. I don't want the nominee to lock things up on February 5th when 21 states have their primaries. I'd like to see the battle take in the opinions of as many voters in as many different states as possible. Hell, I'd love a brokered convention, if at all possible.

If we see an Edwards/Clinton/Obama finish, I wonder what effect it will have on Obama's campaign. Regardless, the Clinton's will try to spin defeat as victory. I don't think Edwards has that option.

Iowa Prognostication | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Iowa Prognostication (4.00 / 2)

The Politico

Reality can be slow, especially on election night, so the media have devised a way to get around it.
Instead of waiting for actual votes to be counted on the night of the Jan. 3 Iowa caucus, a consortium of the major TV networks and The Associated Press will conduct an entrance poll to measure how people say they will vote.

So, second choices will not count for publicity purposes and the loser could be reported the winner and get all the attendent momentum and contributions.

by AliceDem on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 01:44:27 PM EST

Re: Iowa Prognostication (4.00 / 2)

I too would like a long primary season but I suspect it will be over after Super Tuesday.

I have no prognostication on Iowa but I'd like to see Obama come in second behind Edwards, with Hillary third.

by maryb2004 on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 02:17:40 PM EST

Re: Iowa Prognostication (none / 1)

In my fantasy Edwards wins, Dodd second and Richardson third. Dream on.

by AliceDem on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 02:29:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa Prognostication (none / 1)

I am prepared for a long primary season. There is very little incentive this time around for people to drop out until they run out of money or their support in the next few contests is less that around 10%.

I still think that Obama will win Iowa on Thursday, but Edwards, Obama, Clinton would be a very interesting result.

My job is not to represent Washington to you, but to represent you to Washington- Obama
Philly for Obama

by Luam (LuamDK at gmail.com) on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 03:35:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa Prognostication (none / 0)

I'm sure that's why I like it - because it is the most interesting result. And I'm easily bored :)

Third place doesn't kill Hillary but it does maybe set her back enough that it can stop her momentum in in NH. It doesn't give Obama enough of a bounce to automatically defeat Hillary in NH but if he spins it right it could still help him squeeze by her in NH. It will never (imo) give Edwards enough of a bounce to win NH but it keeps him and his message alive and maybe forces Obama to re-think parts of his message for Super Tuesday.

Of course - what do I know? Nothing.

by maryb2004 on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 04:18:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards' anger (4.00 / 2)

The main stream idiots like Joe Klein say that Edwards' new anger is hurting him.

I don't think so.

I like the anger. i want someone who shows some passion about the corporatist crap that's being handed out now. We need someone who wants to STICK IT to the corporate interests.

i feel more and more that this is Edwards.

While I like Dodd the most, Edwards is sounding better and better.

by dataguy on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 03:03:20 PM EST

Re: Edwards' anger (none / 0)

I agree with you re. Edwards, also just watched Dodd this morning and thought I could get behind him, (then there's Biden too,)Edwards, I like the fire, Obama, I like the hope, Clinton I like the calmness, well that settles it we need a candidate that's a mix of all them wrapped up in one.

Click here to step into the Village Blue2

by diane101 (dianed101 @ yahoo.com) on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 03:47:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iowa Prognostication (none / 1)

Hmm...Edwards is only at 15% at Intrade...seems like a good time to buy.

by rae on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 01:53:44 PM EST

Your gut and mine (none / 0)

are atuned. I think that we should take a lesson from 2004. When they get in a room together, Iowa Dems want a win, and Edwards is the second choice of a bunch of them who like hearing Biden, Dodd, and even Kucinich and Gravel.

I'd believe Obama second. I wonder how nasty the Clintonistas would get after that? I personally like Senator Clinton a lot, but feel she's dragged down by "remoras" from the past. (Yeah, I'm a biologist by training.)

Can we share virtual drinks afterward, and see who's gut was most atuned?

Michaela

by michaelmt (MrMichael_t@yahoo.com) on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 02:29:10 PM EST

Re: Your gut and mine (none / 0)

I am going to bed Thursday night. The Iowa caucuses don't commence until something like 7 PM Central time. Some of them will drag on, so we won't know the result until 10 or even 11 PM Central time.

On the other hand the networks plan to report the entrance polls and not even try to report the actual winner. That will distort this process even more than it is already.

by AliceDem on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 02:32:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

2008 Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus (none / 0)

.
Quite some differences between polls, however the trendlines do indicate an increase in support for Clinton and Edwards.

Pollster.com

"We removed from the results the percentages allocated for 'other candidates' and 'undecided', and then reallocated the support of those who are supporting candidates without the required 15% level of support," said Jeff Shusterman of InsiderAdvantage's research partner, Majority Opinion Research. "We then merged these totals with the percentages of support the top candidates received on the first 'ballot'. This is the same methodology we used in 2004."

"What many who look at the Iowa Democratic Caucus may miss is that its delegates are apportioned much like the old county unit system once used in Southern states. This gives rural areas, where Edwards is running strong, the opportunity to have a disproportionately significant impact on the ultimate outcome. Regardless of geographic areas of support, the Edwards 'second choice' percentage has remained well over 50% ..."

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 02:41:03 PM EST

Re: Iowa Prognostication (none / 0)

On Clinton's spinning defeat:

"Storm Lake, Ia. -- John Edwards' most colorful adviser let fly today with complaints that Hillary Clinton's campaign is already trying to spin its way out of a possible loss in Iowa.

Dave "Mudcat" Saunders told a van full of reporters that he'd just been sitting in his motel room, watching a Clinton official downplay the importance of the Iowa caucuses.

Saunders expressed outrage." I threw a cup of tea at my TV, I was so mad," he said. He pleaded with national reporters not to let Clinton get away with saying Iowa is unimportant if she loses the caucuses. "She's from New York. She ought to know - if you can make it here, you can make it anywhere."

by shergald on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 03:51:58 PM EST

Re: Iowa Prognostication (none / 0)

Man, the final Des Moines Register poll has to figure in this conversation somewhere, is everyone ignoring it? Of course the Edwards and Clinton camps are downplaying it, but this is the one I've looked at the last couple of primaries.

by RollaMO on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 04:02:34 PM EST

the polls mean shit (none / 0)

and I'm serious here. It's all turnout, turnout, turnout. Edwards has a very good organization. Plus, his supporters are motivated. Obama is doing well, but his supporters are often new to the process.

The polls are less related to what happens in IA than to any other place in any other political issue, since the process is so different.

by dataguy on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 04:07:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the polls mean shit (none / 0)

What dataguy said, you can't poll for a caucus, they are completely different from a primary.

by AliceDem on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 04:11:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the polls mean shit (none / 0)

OK, just askin'.

by RollaMO on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 04:19:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Historical examination (none / 0)

suggests that in 2004 and 2000 the polls separated the top group from the also-rans effectively. So, we can say that Dodd, Biden, Gravel and Kucinich are very unlikely to do well.

For the top 4 (I include Richardson), I just don't see any effective way to poll. The two-step process is really really difficult to model with a telephone interview. Plus, the inherent random factor is the threshold value at each polling site - if you are under 15%, you must choose a second. Even if your candidate is huge somewhere else, your vote for that candidate is lost at your site if you do not get 15% there (1 in 6).

by dataguy on Tue Jan 1st, 2008 at 06:02:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Iowa Prognostication | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Go to: [ Booman Tribune Homepage : Top of page : Top of comments ]

. Home
. About
. Contact
. Advertise
. FAQ
. Search

Username:
Password:

. Make a new account
. Reset password

Gift Cards * New Arrivals

NOTE: Overstock bests Amazon's prices and is "blue."

THE BOOKS WITH "BUZZ":
______________

Senator Edward M. Kennedy tells his extraordinary personal story:

True Compass: A Memoir
by Edward M. Kennedy.

Read Barack Obama's vision for America:

The Audacity of Hope: Thoughts on Reclaiming the American Dream
by Barack Obama

Boran2 and maryb2004 recommend:

The Big Over Easy: A Nursery Crime
by Jasper Fforde

Must-have information for all presidents-and citizens-of the twenty-first century?

Physics for Future Presidents: The Science behind the Headlines
Richard A. Muller

rae recommends:

Dark Ages America: The Final Phase of Empire
by Morris Berman.

On BooMan’s shelf:

Team of Rivals: The Political Genius of Abraham Lincoln
by Doris Kearns Goodwin

This looks interesting:

Adventure Divas
by Holly Morris

Here’s a good one from
Elizabeth Gilbert:

Eat Pray Love
by Elizabeth Gilbert

"Crash" * Best Motion Picture, Academy Awards * Only $11.79 at Overstock * 2006 SAG Winner, Best Ensemble

Check out
Powell's new section:
NEW FAVORITES
Selected new arrivals at 30% off

Recommended by Indianadem and ejmw:
The Conscience of a Liberal
by Paul Wellstone

From northcountry’s bookshelf:

The New Golden Age:
The Coming Revolution Against
Political Corruption and Economic Chaos by Ravi Batra

A novel about contractors in Iraq from the woman that runs The Spy That Billed Me:

Outsourced: A Novel
from RJ Hillhouse.

Great Deals
----- * ^ * -----

Find mystery novels by Nancy Pickard ("Kansas")

Challenging Empire: How People, Governments, and the UN Defy US Power by Phyllis Bennis (interviewed on DN!)

Featured by Keith Olbermann, New (Powell's Sale): Rogue State: A Guide to the World's Only Superpower by William Blum (whose other books merit serious consideration)

"Explosive" State of War: The Secret History of the CIA and the Bush Administration
by James Risen

The book the CIA doesn't want you to read: Jawbreaker: The Attack on Bin Laden and Al Qaeda: A Personal Account by the CIA's Key Field Commander
Larry Johnson's review

BT's all-time best seller:

PERMACULTURE:
A Designers' Manual
$79.95 * Sale: $59.95

Unequal Sisters: A Multicultural Reader in U.S. Women's History (Third Edition)

The Undercover Economist: Exposing Why the Rich Are Rich, the Poor Are Poor And Why You Can Never Buy a Decent Used Car!

The Worst Hard Time: The Untold Story of Those Who Survived the Great American Dust Bowl
by Timothy Egan

Green Press Initiative
----- * ^ * -----

Journalistas: 100 Years of the Best Writing and Reporting by Women Journalists by Eleanor Mills * NYT review

Bury Me Standing: the Gypsies & Their Journey

1491: New Revelations of the Americas before Columbus

Brokeback Mountain
by Annie Proulx
----- * ^ * -----
Check out Powell's
"At The Movies"

Imperial Ambitions: Conversations on the Post-9/11 World by Noam Chomsky (Power & Terror: Post 9-11 Talks)

The Price of Privilege:

How Parental Pressure and
Material Advantage Are Creating a Generation of
Disconnected and Unhappy Kids
by Madeline Levine

Save 35-70% on
name brand clothing,
footwear, and outdoor gear
at SierraTradingPost.com
:

We listened to PEN American Center's "State of Emergency" and found 1940s books by Curzio Malaparte only at Alibris. (Selection (MP3) excerpted from "The Skin.")

Banned Books * Are you a fan of Film Noir, Art House, Documentaries or Hong Kong Action? * Searching for a long-lost children's book or a first printing of Miles Davis' Kind of Blue on vinyl? Find it at Alibris!

:
:

Booman Tribune Homepage
admin@boomantribune.com
powered by Scoop

More blogs about Blogs at Technorati.

Technorati Profile