Booman Tribune

How Did the Big Dog Play?

by BooMan
Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:13:05 AM EST

To get a sense for how South Carolina voters reacted to the Clintons' campaign in their state I took a look at the McClatchy-MSNBC poll from January 14-16, and compared it to the CNN exit polls. In the chart below, the first number is the support on the 14th-16th, the second number is the actual number on election day, and the third number is the difference between the two. I also included a number to show how many people either supported Kucinich or were undecided in the first poll.

STATE WIDE RESULT McClatchy-MSNBC/CNN Exit Polls

Barack Obama 40%/55% +15
Hillary Clinton 31%/27% -4
John Edwards 13%/18% +5
Undecideds/Others (in pre-election poll) 16%

WHITE VOTERS McClatchy-MSNBC/CNN Exit Polls

Barack Obama 20%/24% +4
Hillary Clinton 39%/36% -3
John Edwards 28%/40% +12
Undecideds/Others (in pre-election poll) 13%

BLACK VOTERS McClatchy-MSNBC/CNN Exit Polls

Barack Obama 56%/78% +22
Hillary Clinton 25%/19% -6
John Edwards 2%/2% 0
Undecideds/Others (in pre-election poll) 17%

REGISTERED DEMOCRATS McClatchy-MSNBC/CNN Exit Polls

Barack Obama 43%/57% +14
Hillary Clinton 32%/28% -4
John Edwards 11%/ 14% +3
Undecideds/Others (in pre-election poll) 14%

This is not a perfect way to measure the effect of the Clintons because it's a measure of everything, including the contentious debate, and the on the ground campaigning and GOTV efforts of the candidates. But we have no better tool to use than a poll from immediately before the Big Dog showed up in the Palmetto state and the exit polls from election day.

The numbers speak for themselves. Clinton lost committed support among whites, blacks, registered Democrats, and overall. Undecided (and changed mind) whites broke to Edwards and Obama at a 3-1 ratio. Undecided (and changed mind) blacks broke entirely to Obama. In fact, in the McClatchy poll, only 17% of blacks expressed indecision on the 16th, but a full 22% more of them voted for Obama than his committed support suggested would. Pretty much every undecided black voter in the state broke for Obama and then another 5% of committed Clinton voters left on top of that. And Edwards got no bump from all those late moving black voters.

This is strong evidence of racial polarization in the race. Make of it what you will, but the Clinton team is in damage control mode.

Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s campaign team, seeking to readjust after her lopsided defeat in South Carolina and amid a sense among many Democrats that Mr. Clinton had injected himself clumsily into the race, will try to shift the former president back into the sunnier, supportive-spouse role that he played before Mrs. Clinton’s loss in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton advisers said.

Of course, Hillary Clinton lost the Iowa caucuses, which is a point surely not missed by her campaign. Here's how The Economist saw things the day before the primary.

The Clinton Global Initiative is widely regarded as a model of its kind. Mr Clinton teamed up with Mr Bush senior to raise money for the victims of the Asian tsunami and Hurricane Katrina. The mere mention of his name was enough to put the devotees of Davos and other such gatherings into a swoon.

But over the past few months Mr Clinton has downgraded himself from global statesman to political hatchet-man. No former president has inserted himself so wholeheartedly into a presidential race. (Mr Bush senior stayed in the background of his son's campaign, and declined to get stuck in even after John McCain won in New Hampshire.) Mr Clinton has not only dismissed Barack Obama as a roll of the dice and a purveyor of fairy tales. He has also ripped into awkward reporters and wandered into the Nevada caucuses to canvass for his wife. He is spending more time campaigning in South Carolina than the candidate herself. Mr Clinton seems intent on playing Spiro Agnew to his wife's Nixon, but with one important difference: Agnew went after the other side.

This all had an effect on Teddy Kennedy.

Quoting anonymous sources, both the Washington Post and New York Times [NYT] reported that Kennedy was frustrated with attacks on Obama by Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, which he thought to be misleading. Sources confirmed Kennedy expressed his angst to Bill Clinton directly.

According to the Post, the senior senator’s frustration boiled over Saturday when the former president sought to downplay Obama’s South Carolina win by comparing him to the Rev. Jesse Jackson, who won the Palmetto State in his long-shot 1984 and 1988 campaigns.

That actually wasn't the only comment of its type that Clinton made on Saturday. And the Clinton campaign was optimistic that Obama had incurred lasting damage from the racial polarization of the race.

"They are getting votes, to be sure, because of their race or gender. That's why people tell me Hillary doesn't have a chance of winning here," the former president said at one stop as he campaigned for his wife, strongly suggesting that blacks would not support a white alternative to Obama.

Clinton campaign strategists denied any intentional effort to stir the racial debate. But they said they believe the fallout has had the effect of branding Obama as "the black candidate," a tag that could hurt him outside the South.

Clinton supporters note that the above Bill Clinton quote is truncated and that the full quote read:

“As far as I can tell, neither Senator Obama nor Hillary have lost votes because of their race or gender. They are getting votes, to be sure, because of their race or gender — that's why people tell me Hillary doesn't have a chance of winning here”

Do you think the extra sentence changes his meaning? In any case, it seems pretty obvious that the damage has been severe, as it rightfully should be.



Display:
Did you hear Hillary's comment that they were all "sleep-deprived"? That's her excuse for her husband's awful behavior, evidently.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:20:09 AM EST
Hadn't heard that one.  What is she supposed to say?
by BooMan on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:33:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Just last week, The Financial Times, UK reporting out of Davos, echoed the Economist  that Clinton's stock had been so downgraded, even wondered if he could again come "hat in hand to CEOs on behalf of his Gobal Initiative." No one anticipated that a former president would inject himself into his wife's campaign so aggressively.

can't put my finger on the link.

But you know for these two business papers to express so harshly on a former popular president speaks volumes. And the Clintons do not care. They're entitled.  Take their spokes-person's interview with The Telegraph, UK.  

On that basis she'll have trouble finding a secretary of state. Hoping in her dreams.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 01:24:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I was actually looking for the UK Telegraph quote when I was writing this, but I didn't know where I had seen it.
by BooMan on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 01:31:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
most likely right within big guy.

You'll be very pleased with The San Francisco Chronicle's endorsement of Obama. Sunday Editorial no less.

The best yet that I've read. It hurts.  imo quite a smack down. Clintons must be smarting. Here again is the link

set aside some time to listen to the Editorial Board's recent interview with Obama. (48:33 min)

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 01:57:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
SC retorted to Clinton's tactics and message not to her gender. But they responded affirmatively to Obama because of his tactics, message and race. The Everyman in him resounded because his tactics drew that aspect out.

Maybe Obama wasn't far off when he challenged Bill to dance before he declared him a brother because both Bill and Hillary seem to have missed the beat that shouts out that we're all a little sensitive to the results Rovian politics gives us.

It's not surprising that there's a landslide of endorsements. The old playbooks give a bad taste in everyone's mouth. If Bill wants to demonstrate that Obama was wrong in his statement about Reagan/Rep being a guy of (bad) ideas; then Bill needs to stop using the old play book himself and let Hillary demonstrate some positive change.

by mainsailset on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:38:30 AM EST
Is it possible that Bill learned a few things from Rove: like divide and conquer, scapegoat, define a minority then kill it? Is it possible that Bill is the political genius that Gingrich thinks he is, or that the rest of us are all wrong?

Anyone have a grasp of the big picture? Need help fast.

by shergald on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 12:00:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
shergald, all campaigns operate along generally similar lines.  Define your candidate before they can define themselves.  Attack your opponents' strengths and exploit their weaknesses.  

What differs is whether the campaigns will resort to unethical behavior.

by BooMan on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 12:08:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Unethical behavior? Haven't seen this in the Obama campaign, but in the Billary campaign? That's something else again.

And no one believes that Bill has now gone out to pasture.

by shergald on Tue Jan 29th, 2008 at 10:10:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What I found rather amusing was that pundits (who I try never to listen to) were talking about how risky a strategy it was for Obama to be taking on both Clintons, because Bill Clinton is one of the most popular Democrats in the country.

First, Bill did attack Obama. Are is there some sort of "law of the playground" at work here which says that if the popular kid punches you, you'd better smile and take it?

Second, popularity is not a fixed quantity. I mean, duh--we know that from fluctuating poll numbers, right?

Speaking of "America's first Black president", is anyone else seriously enjoying the irony that the originator of that phrase, Toni Morrison, just endorsed Obama?

by Renee in Ohio on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:40:39 AM EST
dawg ain't doing so well in Europe.

A cartoon is worth a 1000 pics.

Big dog, the view from Holland  (H/T:Andrew)

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 03:38:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Maybe she will revoke his permit.
by BooMan on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:44:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]
She did not!  I think Morrison is probably one of the worst popular writers ever, so when she said that about Bill, she really did ensure that I would never read a damn thing she wrote.  I'm off to check your link!

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 01:50:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Oh thank you - I have never understood the love for Toni Morrison's work, and thought it was just me.

"Little people are very stuff-intensive."
by CabinGirl on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 01:52:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's campaign team, seeking to readjust after her lopsided defeat in South Carolina and amid a sense among many Democrats that Mr. Clinton had injected himself clumsily into the race, will try to shift the former president back into the sunnier, supportive-spouse role that he played before Mrs. Clinton's loss in the Iowa caucuses, Clinton advisers said.

Gotta love those Times narratives.  MoDo and Gail Collins must be positively beaming when phrasing like this gets borrowed from their lexicon tackle box of inanity and applied to the Clintons.

For some reason I have to wonder if this was exactly how one of those "Clinton advisers" said this.

The Times, they loves talkin' bout their Clintons.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"

by MikeInOhio on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 11:49:37 AM EST
Putting the manipulative Bill back in the bottle and pulling the sunnier one out, yeah I want to see that happen.


by mainsailset on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 12:00:15 PM EST
O/T, but I just got an email from John Kerry's email list with Patrick Murphy's endorsement of Barack Obama.
Exactly four years ago today, I returned home from Iraq.  Nineteen of my fellow paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne weren't as lucky.  I witnessed George Bush's failed strategy firsthand and was determined to do something about it and start bringing our troops home.  Now, as the first and only Iraq war veteran in Congress, I take seriously my responsibility to call for a new foreign policy, and to making sure our nation fulfills its promise to my fellow veterans.

We need a President who has the vision, the judgment, and the courage to make this change become a reality. Barack Obama will be that President.

From the beginning, Barack had the foresight to speak out against the war and the Bush Administration's terrible mismanagement of it.

Barack Obama will put an end to Bush's policy blunders and bring our troops home safely and responsibly. Barack and I introduced the Iraq De-escalation Act.  (You can view details of our plan at my website, www.murphy08.com.)

Our bill calls for clear benchmarks, a clear timeline for redeployment and a strategic strike force to combat al Qaeda.  Most importantly, this redeployment from Iraq will give our military the personnel and equipment it needs to redouble its efforts at destroying al Qaeda and the Taliban in Afghanistan.  We need Senator Obama's comprehensive approach to foreign policy and we need to make sure that we are fighting on the right battlefields.  

Barack Obama will bring a new approach to foreign policy, one that understands the world as it really is.  He will restore our reputation around the globe and end the Bush vision of foreign policy as a political weapon. And when a Republican candidate tells us that we'll be in Iraq for 100 years, we know that a change in foreign policy can't wait one more day.

Barack is also committed to getting our veterans proper treatment. He is the grandson of a World War II veteran and serves on the Senate's Veteran's Affairs Committee, which just passed the largest increase in veterans' benefits in the 77 year history of the Veterans Administration.  As President, he pledged to have a "zero tolerance" policy for homelessness among our veterans. On any given night, there are 200,000 veterans living on the streets in this country.  As President, Barack will end this injustice.

But to truly change our nation's direction, we need more than just new policies. We need you.  A few weeks ago, I was up in New Hampshire door-knocking and talked with a 20-year old woman named Julie.  She and her brother were supporting Senator Obama.  She said, "My brother is a Marine who just left for his fourth deployment in Iraq.  We feel that if Obama is our next Commander-in-Chief, he won't have to go back for a fifth deployment."

That is what this election is about.  I know Senator Obama has a rare ability to lead that doesn't come along very often. We need a fundamental change both at home and abroad, and I believe Barack Obama will bring about that change if we give him a chance.

Thank you,

Patrick Murphy

U.S. Representative, (D) PA-08



Tengo un sueño.
by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 12:16:07 PM EST
Just watching Caroline & Ted. First thought, all these endorsements may well bring the party back above the fray of the race card plays. Go Kennedys!


by mainsailset on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 12:49:08 PM EST
Jack and Jill Politics has a wiki on the Clinton's attacks, particularly the racist ones.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Mon Jan 28th, 2008 at 02:28:32 PM EST


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