Booman Tribune

John Edwards is Dropping Out

by BooMan
Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 10:55:55 AM EST

John Edwards is ending his campaign for the Democratic nomination. Here are the Associated Press, Washington Post, and CNN articles. Edwards is expected to make the official announcement at 1pm at a previously scheduled anti-poverty speech in New Orleans. According to the Washington Post article, Edwards has no immediate plans to endorse anyone. According to the CNN article, his decision is not related to his wife Elizabeth's health. I hope that is true, but I am still concerned.

The impact on the race will be immediate. With Edwards in the race on Super Tuesday it was going to be difficult for either Clinton or Obama to accumulate a majority of the delegates. With Edwards out of the race, one of the big two is guaranteed to get a majority. The nomination will be settled by Edwards' voters. Who were they? Were they predominately advocates of change that will be more predisposed to join Barack Obama's campaign, or were they predominately white voters that didn't like Hillary Clinton but will still choose her over the non-white candidate?

I guess we will find out soon enough. It's time for Barack Obama to walk entirely on his own two feet.



Display:
there was a pre-caucus meeting last night of edwards supporters, and even the 'one corps' leader didn't know this.  the grassroots weren't informed, and this morning there seems to be a sense of betrayal in some of the messages.

this is a major disappointment.

and l'm w/ heartoftherockies...it's obama, by default.

lTMF'sA

lTMF'sA...the revolution will not be televised...Peace

by dada on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:14:14 AM EST
could be a question of funds too. Why go into debt when you're dwarfed by the media - not seen as viable, not given a chance.

For what it's worth, a look back The American Prospect

Whither Edwards Supporters?

Despite John Edwards' determination to remain in the race, some advisers already see the end. The new question is not when he'll drop out but where his supporters -- and the candidate himself --- will go next. -Dana Goldstein

Both Edwards and Bill Richardson, it's not hard to discern where their hearts lean. With Edwards the body language is clear.

reading tea leaves....A hint from Bill Richardson?

""I had just been asked a question -- I don't remember which one -- and Obama was sitting right next to me. Then the moderator went across the room, I think to Chris Dodd, so I thought I was home free for a while. I wasn't going to listen to the next question. I was about to say something to Obama when the moderator turned to me and said, 'So, Gov. Richardson, what do you think of that?' But I wasn't paying any attention! I was about to say, 'Could you repeat the question? I wasn't listening.' But I wasn't about to say I wasn't listening. I looked at Obama. I was just horrified. And Obama whispered, 'Katrina. Katrina.' The question was on Katrina! So I said, 'On Katrina, my policy . . .' Obama could have just thrown me under the bus. So I said, 'Obama, that was good of you to do that.'"[.]

If Richardson is to endorse either Clinton or Obama -- "I might, I might not, how's that for an answer?" -- he said he'll do so by the end of the week.

"If I do endorse, it's going to be a gut feeling. It's not going to be about statistics, about past ties," Richardson said. "I've been on the campaign trail with both of them. I feel that I know them. I feel I know the issues. I feel I know what makes them both tick."

(italic highlights mine)



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:39:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
From Newsweek
UPDATE, 11:06 a.m.: Obama beats Clinton to the punch on praising Edwards. "At a time when our politics is too focused on who's up and who's down, he made a nation focus again on who matters," he says in a statement. "The New Orleans child without a home, the West Virginia miner without a job, the families who live in that other America that is not seen or heard or talked about by our leaders in Washington." Clinton's only email since news broke of Edwards' withdrawal? "Victory in Florida."


Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:30:10 AM EST
Damn, that was quick.

Can't hear ya, Peach!
by AP on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:31:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not surprised.

go read my comment upthread...a hint from Bill Richardson...indicative the character of Obama.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:42:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a bit tacky IMO...but you know that the Clinton's would have done it anyway.  Reading reports, it seems it was the Clinton's campaign leaked the story.  I've read so many stories where there's the line, "The Clinton campaign said that Edwards called on Wednesday."

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:44:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
John never had a chance in hell. The media made damn sure of that. It has come down to who has the most money and the big wigs of the party behind them. That is the truth. We are now letting Corporate America and the media(which is now part of Corp Am) choose our candidates.
Oh this has been going on for some time and we allowed it.
by NancyImpeachBush on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:48:07 AM EST
What'll be even more interesting is the effects of people who have already voted by mail.  I almost filled out my ballot last night but decided to wait until hearing the news from Edwards' NOLA speech.

Latino Político | "We are condemned to kill time, thus we die bit by bit." - Octavio Paz
by Man Eegee (man.eegee at gmail.com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 10:58:13 AM EST
One of the serious drawbacks to voting by mail--things happen in the last week before you vote.  I have only voted by mail when the items were issues not candidates.

If Edwards doesn't announce his support for Hillary or Obama before Super Tuesday, I will caucus for Obama.  Not taking any chances on a deal with Hillary.  

by Heart of the Rockies on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:00:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That's a good strategy for early voting.  I'm anticipating a crazy day next Tuesday for non-political reason so requested the ballot in case I couldn't make it to the polls.

If my crystal ball is functioning correctly, Obama will win the southern part of the state (the region I live), and Hillary will take the Phoenix Metro area.  The outlying areas are a toss-up, but I was expecting Edwards to do well among the copper belt area that is still heavily union.  Will be interesting to see what happens now.

Latino Político | "We are condemned to kill time, thus we die bit by bit." - Octavio Paz

by Man Eegee (man.eegee at gmail.com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:09:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
it's like you have spidey-sense.
by BooMan on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:01:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
you'd be surprised what you hear when listening to the wind.  Now if only it would tell me what size shirt I should hunt for this weekend...

Latino Político | "We are condemned to kill time, thus we die bit by bit." - Octavio Paz
by Man Eegee (man.eegee at gmail.com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:05:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
My election is today. I heard the news as I was leaving to vote. I still voted for Edwards just because I wanted to.

Land of the watched, because of the cowed.
by hens teeth on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:48:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I still have my absentee ballot and I had planned to vote for Edwards.  I just got an e-mail from the campaign yesterday inviting me to see Edwards in San Jose on Friday.  I'm not voting for Hillary; but I'm reluctant to vote for Obama unless Edwards endorses him.

I'm disappointed that Edwards staff leaked the news to the press before they told their supporters.  It may well have been the only way that they could have gotten the press to show up for the speech, considering the news blackout he's gotten; but it still feels bad to wake up to Cokie Roberts gloating that he's dropping out.

by RustyPipes (rustdotypipesatyahoodotcom) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:58:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
With Barack Obama, we have a person who is 50 % African.  The Democrats have always prided themselves as a party who welcomed diversity, and welcomes all persons.

Can white Democrats vote for a black man?  They did in Iowa.

Will white Democrats in Alabama vote for a black man?  Texas?

It's a test.

I know one thing - if Barack cannot win the vote of white Democrats, he will not win the vote of white Republicans.

by dataguy on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:00:37 AM EST
See what happens when I go back to sleep before checking the dailies?  I miss everything!  I went back to bed at 5am my time.  I thought for sure that Edwards really was going to stay in for the long haul.  

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:02:40 AM EST
Well, I guess it's the epic Clinton v. Obama showdown that the media has been longing for.

Unfortunately, I think identity politics has more to do with Edwards' support than his policy stances, meaning that most of his votes will flow to Clinton.

by PsiFighter37 on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:04:37 AM EST
Yahoo:
Four in 10 Edwards supporters said their second choice in the race is Clinton, while a quarter prefer Obama, according to an Associated Press-Yahoo poll conducted late this month. Both Clinton and Obama would welcome Edwards' backing and the support of the 56 delegates he had collected.

CNN

Some political pundits predict Edwards' supporters are more likely to lean in Obama's direction.

"The conventional wisdom is that Barack Obama will pick up maybe 60 percent of them, and in some places, that makes a huge difference," former presidential adviser David Gergen said.

Time magazine journalist Joe Klein said, "I don't think he endorses Hillary Clinton. The question is whether or not he endorses Barack Obama."

Klein contends that Clinton "represents a lot of the things that [Edwards] campaigned against, you know, the old Washington Democratic establishment that he believes got too close to the corporations in the '90s."



Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008
by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:27:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Hope you're wrong.  We supported him so that he could keep hammering away on issues we find important.
by Heart of the Rockies on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:11:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I think he dropped out because he heard Bush say in the State of the Union that we're "goin' after the purveyors of false populism."

"Nobody can give you freedom. Nobody can give you equality or justice or anything. If you're a man, you take it." - Malcolm X
by Woodpecker on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:09:08 AM EST
I caught that too.  Wonder if Huckabee was included in that dig?
by SFHawkguy on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:25:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Edwards and 9/11 dropping out at the same time, what a contrast, a big loss vs. a big gain.
by RollaMO on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:13:31 AM EST
Ed Koch this morning on Rudy's demise
           "The beast is dead"

No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.
by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:22:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
for excluding Gravel from debates.

He's holding an online "alternative debate" tomorrow night, with the network feed on a screen, and he'll jump in with his answers. http://gravel2008.us will provide a link to the live feed.

I'm running for the US Senate again, Wisconsin 2012.

by ben masel (bDESPAMmasel@tds.net) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:19:51 AM EST
What prevents Edwards supporters from checking the already-printed box next to his name?
by rba (nearnight12@yahoo.com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:28:46 AM EST
NOthing. Have at it.
by dataguy on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 12:06:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
yeah, i gotta go with Obama myself.
I'm not completely sold on the man, but another 4-8 years of Clintonism makes my stomach turn.

no thank you.

Brendan Calling John Mccain

by brendan on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:31:21 AM EST
I think Edwards supporters were mostly with him because they hated Hillary. So most will go to Obama.

From my own caucus experience, when Edwards was declared "not viable," his supporters immediately moved to Obama without even blinking.

Now, in the south, it may be different. They might have been with Edwards because they're uncomfortable with the black man and also can't stand Hillary. But what's worse for these voters, the cold calculating Hillary or the black man?

It would be nice if Edwards endorses Obama, but if he endorses no one, most of his supporters should move to Obama anyway.

My 2 cents, FWIW.

by RandyH on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:37:14 AM EST
A couple of weeks ago, we were asked to complete a survey.  500 responses were tabulated in this informal survey:
Senators John Edwards and Barack Obama lead the field among those taking the survey, with Edwards capturing 32% of respondents to Obama's 26%. Senator Hilary Clinton trails with 15%, just ahead of Representative Dennis Kucinich at 12% and the undecided vote at 11%

Race, Gender, Age
We found that our respondents' race, gender, and age decidedly affected their responses. White voters, measured alone, swing to Edwards (37%) and away from Obama (18%). Black voters shift dramatically behind Obama (78%), dispelling the notion that African-Americans are reluctant to pin their hopes to Obama. And, Latinos swing behind both Obama (30%) and Clinton (27%) and away from Edwards (27%) and Kucinich (5%).

I'm trying to find the one taken for the larger party. Edwards was ahead in that one too, but since the numbers were so close, no endorsement was given.

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:41:50 AM EST
Well the media is portraying this in racial terms and so are you Boo.  At least 8 "analysts" this morming talked about whether the Edwards voters will eventually vote for a black man.  It took one brave reporter to actually provide the exit polling data from the previous primaries/caucuses that showed his supporters were "working class" democrats (the base) and not from the "youth" or "affluent" or "better educated" demographic.
by wasabi cat on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 11:52:32 AM EST
see my examination of the Exit Polls...unfortunately, Edwards' support was not working class, nor liberal, nor in any way correlated to his rhetoric.
by BooMan on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 12:05:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Please repost the link to your analysis.
by wasabi cat on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 12:46:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it's on the front-page, currently at the top.
by BooMan on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 12:48:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Very sad news, but not totally unexpected.  I don't really care for either of the other two.

Fear will keep the local systems in line. -Grand Moff Tarkin Survivor Left Blogistan
by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 12:43:09 PM EST
I think I'll caucus for Gravel, just to make the O and H supporters convince me as to why I should go over to their side.

I am sick to death of being told that I only supported Edwards because I'm conservative, white and above $100K.  If I support either one of the two "top tier" candidates, it will be because their proposed policies have convinced me, not because of anything else.  And I am sick to death of defending either one to the GrOPer idiots around me that are attacking because of sex, race, last name, etc.  Goddammit.

by BlueMonkey on Wed Jan 30th, 2008 at 03:41:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I would have voted for John Edwards in the California primary - I will be voting for Obama. White male, 50yrs old.

Despite the famous Obama charisma, I don't get the feeling that he is going to change much - but I'm sure Hillary, whatever good intentions she might have once had, has been bought & paid for by Corporatists up & down the line.

My politics are decidedly Populist & anti-Corporatist.

Like "liberal", I consider "Populist" a badge of honor & not the epithet that so many these try to make it.

by sidewinder on Thu Jan 31st, 2008 at 12:52:19 AM EST


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