Booman Tribune

Learning from Iowa's Exit Polls

by BooMan
Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 04:27:15 PM EST

Bowers and I must be wearing different shades of glasses. He keeps suggesting that Obama's victory in Iowa was not based on getting out the independent vote. He's totally wrong. First, let's look at the data.

A well-reported five-point bump in turnout among younger voters helped propel Barack Obama to victory in Iowa, and a look behind the numbers shows just how different this new generation of caucusgoers is from the historically more "reliable" group of over-65 voters.

Last Thursday evening, 22 percent of Democratic caucusgoers were under 30 years old, the same proportion of the electorate made up by those 65 and older, according to the network entrance poll (Democrats, Republicans). (In 2004, the seniors made up 27 percent of all caucusgoers; those aged 17-29, 17 percent; in 2000 those under 30 were just 9 percent of caucusgoers.) And this year, younger voters were worlds apart on ideology, party identification, issues and the election's primary flashpoint: "change."

Politically, Iowa caucusgoers under age 30 were more likely than the senior set to call themselves independents: 26 percent of 17-29 year olds called themselves "independent," more than double the percentage of seniors (12 percent) saying so.

Young caucusgoers are, however, more ideological than their older counterparts. Nearly three-quarters (73 percent) of 17-29 year-olds described themselves as "liberal" (including 29 percent "very liberal"), while a majority of those 65 and up said they are moderate (55 percent). Thirty-seven percent of seniors called themselves liberal.

Bowers is emphasizing the liberal self-identification of the youth vote to rebut the assertion that Obama attracted independents. That's the wrong way of looking at it. 'A well-reported five-point bump in turnout among younger voters' is chiefly Obama's doing, and '[p]olitically, Iowa caucusgoers under age 30 were more likely than the senior set to call themselves independents.' In other words, Obama turned out independents, but those independents were disproportionately young independents. Bowers attempts to dismiss this by looking to the liberal/conservative bias of the young independent vote.

74% of young caucus goers self-identified as Democrats, and 73% self-identified is liberals. Yeah, that's some post-partisan and post-ideological generation coming through the ranks.

This speaks to the failure of the Republican brand among voters under 30, but it doesn't change for a moment that 26% of them consider themselves independents. Bowers wants Obama's victory to redound to the efforts of liberals and progressives, rather than to some post-partisan appeal to political moderates. That's true to an extent, but only because his definition of 'moderate' is the same as his definition of 'independents'.

They're not the same. To understand the turnout phenomenon, we have to know something different. Why did young independent voters turn out in such large numbers to vote in a partisan Democratic caucus? In part, it is indeed because they have liberal political sentiments. Obama didn't create those liberal sentiments, but he did motivate them to come out and vote. And he didn't do it by appealing to their partisan nature. First of all, they are self-identified independents, so appeals to partisanship will not motivate them. Secondly, Obama didn't make a partisan pitch. Obviously, Obama moved them with the message he had, not the message Bowers' might wish he had had.

The question is not whether or not Obama can win over middle of the road swing voters, but whether he can mobilize massive turnout among non-partisan voters that share his left-leaning sentiments.

Clearly, he can. The good news is that the youth vote is so overwhelming liberal, and that Obama can get them to the polls. Who gets credit? I'd give most of the credit to Bush, Cheney, and people like Tancredo. Most of the rest of the credit has to go to Obama. And, in fairness, I think Clinton and Edwards deserve some credit, too. Having a competitive primary with three attractive candidates running neck and neck in the polls made it much more likely that people would see caucus-going as a worthy expenditure of their time.



Display:
After Super Tuesday, I'll be switching my registration to Indy since we don't have open primaries and it's because I'm to the left of the Democrats.  I suspect there are many out there who have felt completely abandoned as both parties tracked to the right during the epidemic of 9/11 Fever.

Latino Político | "We are condemned to kill time, thus we die bit by bit." - Octavio Paz
by Man Eegee (man.eegee at gmail dot com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 05:01:19 PM EST
And you know what, Man Eegee? I bet you're right. I bet a lot of these independent youth know exactly that the Dems just don't represent their interests.


The more control, the more that requires control. This is the road to chaos. -Frank Herbert, The Dosadi Experiment
by chimneyswift on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 06:36:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Gallup: Obama And Hillary Tied -- Nationally!

Obama    33%   (+6)
Clinton  33%   (-12)
Edwards  20%   (+5)



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 05:03:43 PM EST
by Oui on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 05:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thanks Oui. The link  in my comment to TPMElection Central does work.  TPM sites have been experiencing overload issues.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 05:49:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think too many people consider 'independents' to be this nebulous cloud of voters floating somewhere in between 'liberal' and 'conservative'.  I know that's what you are pointing out when you say that Bowers' definitions of moderate and independent are the same.

Personally, I'm in the 17-29 age bracket and am an independent, but it's not because I'm in the middle of the two ideologies.  I just consider both political parties too corrupt and too far for the right for me to associate myself with them.  

That being said, unless there is a major realignment in partisan politics, the Democrats are nearly always at least closer to being in line with my positions so I end up voting that way.

Tengo un sueño.
by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 04:51:24 PM EST
heh, jinx.  again.

Latino Político | "We are condemned to kill time, thus we die bit by bit." - Octavio Paz
by Man Eegee (man.eegee at gmail dot com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 05:05:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Boo, this is a great point. I think a lot of the CW does fall way to the right of the true independent voter...

I think that lots of them also just don't believe most politicians.

The difference that Obama makes is that he expresses the progressive sentiments of the population, is believable, and (unlike Kucinich) is someone that people can envision as successful in the role.

The more control, the more that requires control. This is the road to chaos. -Frank Herbert, The Dosadi Experiment

by chimneyswift on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 06:44:23 PM EST
Obama's campaign is also actively working to register voters to join their campaign.  From an email I got via a site called Eventful.com

You can be a part of our movement in Arizona, but you must be registered to vote as a Democrat. And Arizona's voter registration deadline is January 7 -- TODAY!

Make your support count. Register to vote NOW:

http://my.barackobama.com/AZvote

Arizona is holding its primary on February 5, and a victory for Barack will be a major step toward winning the Democratic nomination.

This campaign has generated unprecedented enthusiasm all across the country. Hundreds of thousands of supporters have attended events, canvassed their neighborhoods, and volunteered in their communities.

With primary season already begun, now's the time to turn your enthusiasm into action.

Make sure you're registered NOW:

http://my.barackobama.com/AZvote

If you're certain that you're registered, take a minute and encourage five of your friends to register so they can participate in the Arizona primary:

http://my.barackobama.com/AZvoteinvite

Thank you,

Jon

Jon Carson
National Voter Contact Director
Obama for America

  1.  Targeted brilliantly to a local audience (AZ voters)
  2.  Empowering in language and content
  3.  Encouraging people to invite others
  4.  Featured on a non-political site

Brilliant.

Latino Político | "We are condemned to kill time, thus we die bit by bit." - Octavio Paz
by Man Eegee (man.eegee at gmail dot com) on Mon Jan 7th, 2008 at 06:52:33 PM EST
Not to get personal or anything, but Bowers seems to need new glasses and not just in a different shade. He flip flops around and changes his opinions regularly.

howieinseattle
by howieinseattle on Tue Jan 8th, 2008 at 07:50:45 AM EST


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