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by BooMan
Taking a look at yesterday's results, the Democrats enjoyed a 31% jump in turnout over 2004.
Total primary voters= 524,055 Here's the 2004 turnout:
Total Democratic primary voters= 217,965 When considering these numbers, remember that in 2004 the Republican side was uncontested. Therefore, we should have expected to see a dropoff this year, because of people deciding to vote in the Republican primary. That obviously didn't happen. Obama's 104,399 votes represent a 24% jump over Kerry's winning total from 2004. The best news is the 55%-45% Democratic advantage in overall turnout. Compare that to the 2004 general election results.
Total voters= 676,227 This confirms that New Hampshire is now a solidly (if not quite safely) Democratic state. I haven't had time to delve too deeply into the exit polls or compare them too much to the 2004 exit polls. A cursory look reveals that woman turned out at a 57% clip (54% in 2004) and voted for Clinton over Obama (46%-29%). I guess they might not want to iron anyone's shirts. CNN broke out the youth vote differently than was done in Iowa or in 2004, creating two groups (18-24 and 25-29) instead of one (18-29). This makes it hard to compare the two results. Obama got 60% of the 18-24 range, but lost the 25-29 range. He then won the 30-39 range, and lost all the older groupings. Combined, the two youth groups accounted for 18% of the vote (14% in 2004), compared to 13% for the over 65 group (11% in 2004). The biggest difference between this year and 2004 is that Democrats turned out in much bigger percentages this time around. In 2004, the electorate was split 44%-44% between Democrats and Independents. This time Democrats outweighed Republicans 54%-44%. That's probably a feature of the lack of a Republican race in 2004. Clinton won because of higher female turnout and higher registered Democrat turnout. Independents voted for Obama at a 41%-31% clip. Looking forward to the general election, it does look like Obama has more cross-over appeal, and thus a higher upside. The key question? What explains this unprecedented turnout?
A Look at the Exit Polls and Turnout | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
A Look at the Exit Polls and Turnout | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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