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What the exit polls tell us

by dataguy
Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 09:40:41 AM EST

The exit polls are available:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/epolls/index.html#val=NHDEM

And they reveal a REALLY AMAZING THING:

Of the 1955 respondents, 57 % were female.

57 %.

that is simply an astonishingly HUGE HUGE difference from 50 %.

I for one do not believe for even one second that 57 % of NH residents are female. It might be that 52 % of Dems are females. But 57 %????

The polls do not show the actual pct going for BO, HC, whatever, but multiplication reveals:

BO: .57 F * .34 BOV + .43 M * .40 BOV = .3658 BOV
HC: .57 F * .46 HCV + .43 M * .29 HCV = .3869 HCV

These percentages are not far off the actual results. Conclusion: Female turnout was way over 50 %.

So, what we have is 2 facts:

HC was supported by a large proportion of women, when looking at the BO v HC contest
The female turnout in the race was WAAAA - AAA - AAAAYYYY above what any reasonable person would ever expect.

Finally, one parenthetical note: Anyone who follows elections knows that ballot position can lead to small but important gains. If you are high, you get 3 %. HC was above BO.

What the exit polls tell us | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: What the exit polls tell us (none / 0)

Right. And the prepolling dramatically undersampled the vote of women.

I would also note we didn't get any poll results after Hillary's emotional moment, which I swear swung a lot of women to her at the last minute.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 10:36:04 AM EST

I have heard many women say (none / 0)

"When Hillary cried, she won me over."

Who knows, but ....

by dataguy on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 10:50:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have heard many women say (3.50 / 2)

I think there is something to that.

Just as BooMan said that a lot of people were waiting to crowd surf into Obamamania until he showed he could win, I think there are a lot of people who liked it when the "cold, calculating political machine" showed some real emotion.

As a side note, since we're here, the media coverage of that absolutely disgusted me. I sincerely hope I never have the misfortune of meeting Chris Matthews, in particular, in person. Or perhaps more aptly, I hope he never has the misfortune of meeting me. What a world class asshole.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 10:58:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Matthews is a repressed gay dickhead (none / 1)

He is always talking about how Fred Thompson is this masculine guy. I swear that he is fondling himself as he does, and he has some BIZARRE fascination with Old Spice.

It's pathetic.

by dataguy on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 11:30:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have heard many women say (none / 1)

I think to meet Chris Matthews any place other than in MsNBC's studios you'd probably have to work for an escort service. At least, that's the impression this incident gives me:

MATTHEWS SCANS THE LOBBY: To help you grasp the soul of your "press corps," let's return to the charity event we glancingly described in October 2005. (See THE DAILY HOWLER, 10/24/05. Scroll down to "Culture Corner.") The emcee that night was Kathleen Matthews, then of Washington's Channel 7. On the way out of the Mayflower Hotel, we saw her husband, TV talker Chris Matthews, chatting with DC journo Mark Plotkin. We don't know Plotkin, but we know Chris a tad. So we decided to stop for a chat rather than walking on by.
"Tough crowd tonight," we thoughtfully said. Chris then offered us a look at the odd soul of the Washington press corps. His eyes stared past ours, scanning the Mayflower's block-long lobby in a classic thousand-yard stare. "I just saw the most incredible prostitute," he weirdly said. (Instead of "prostitute," he may have said "hooker.")
To Plotkin's credit--again, we don't know him--he seemed to be just as surprised as we were by Chris' oddball comment. But Chris wasn't through with his weird discussion; his eyes continued to scan the long hall as he said something like, "Yeah, you have to ask for the `pink sheet' rooms when you check in." (Not an exact quote.) At no point did Plotkin seem to think that this was a recognizable topic. For ourselves, we'd have to say it was the strangest thing any man has ever said to us. No, it simply isn't our experience that men make such weird comments to other men--much less, to men whom they barely know. Men like Matthews apparently think that this is standard male discussion. (We googled and Nexised "pink sheet" the next day. We found no usage which conformed to what Chris had said.)

A conservative is a man with two perfectly good legs who, however, has never learned how to walk forward. Franklin D. Roosevelt

by Steven D on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 03:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have heard many women say (3.50 / 2)

that's really funny.

by BooMan on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 03:59:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have heard many women say (none / 0)

Boo,

You guys are absolutely right about NH and the National Media. My favorite, and most accurate summary quote was by Rachel Maddow:

"What New Hampshire did was come out and body slam the national establishment press."

Tom Brokaw in his impossible attempt to "school Tweety" (below the vidro) was the next best and accurate.

Brian Williams ran a distant 3rd in his guestimation.

This is only 1/3 the story - there is a lot more, and I will email you. Boo, before I write on the blog. This has been my home blog thru a long and protracted illness and recoveries and I want your opinion/knowledge on "the rest of the story...." H/T to whoever coined that term

"The most successful politician is he who says what the people are thinking the most often and in the loudest voice." Theodore Roosevelt.

by Grandma M on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 10:51:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bizarre. (3.50 / 2)

I think he may have serious mental health issues.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 04:00:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have heard many women say (none / 1)

Hillary and McAuliffe admit to that: they are not shy about saying so. But can she cry all the way back to the White House?

Hillary Clinton also agreed that choking up helped her campaign in New Hampshire:
Clinton attributed her win in part to her success late in the race in telling voters why she's in public life, a reference to her choking up when a voter asked her how she was faring. Asked whether that was a turnaround for her, she said, "I think it could well have been.

The media sure helped..running the tearful tape end to end, wall to wall. Zogby had too small a sample that showed late Wednesday she was gaining.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 02:27:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have heard many women say (none / 0)

analysis that's worth a read

At Huffpost: How New Hampshire Upended the Democratic Race

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 08:40:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the exit polls tell us (none / 0)

Great analysis!

"We reported back to hearts what we had seen, and told our footsteps all about where we had been."

by Frank Schnittger (Frankschnittger at hotmail dotty communists) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 01:41:01 PM EST

Re: What the exit polls tell us (none / 0)

according to mathews the exit polls had obama winning by 5.

by jerseygirl on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:04:22 PM EST

Link? (none / 0)

I'd like to see this. I am getting more and more concerned about the use of machines in NH

by dataguy on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 06:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Link? (none / 0)

hardball msnbc. I don't know if there is a video link but he said it several times and so did at least one of his guests.

by jerseygirl on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:43:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Link? (none / 0)

also bradblog.com has a front page story on it. I hate machine voting. there is just too much at stake for too many people. If there is a way to rig a vote it will get rigged. just the cynic in me.

by jerseygirl on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 07:46:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What the exit polls tell us (none / 0)

The only exit polls I saw, on the MSNBC and CNN site (and it might have been the same poll - I didn't stop to compare) showed Hillary up 2 points on Obama.

You might have confused (or Chris might have confused) a pre-election poll with an exit poll.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Wed Jan 9th, 2008 at 08:03:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exit polls at different times (none / 0)

may say different things.

The FINAL exit poll appears to agree substantially with the vote totals.

Thank goodness for that. I hate those "exit polls disagree" They give me a stomach ache.

by dataguy on Thu Jan 10th, 2008 at 10:21:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

What the exit polls tell us | 17 comments (17 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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