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by BooMan
I've broken out my congressional forecast into four categories (or waves). And I have also separated the races out by region. Candidates in WAVE ONE are currently leading or even in the polls, and I fully expect the vast majority of them to win. Candidates in WAVE TWO are currently even or narrowly behind in the polls, and I expect at least 75% of them to win. Candidates in WAVE THREE are currently behind in the polls, but not by an insurmountable amount. Many of them are getting assistance from the DCCC's Red-to-Blue program. They need a little help to get them over the top. As of right now, I only expect about 25% of them to win. Yet, if the momentum continues in the current direction, it's very possible that more than half of them will be victorious. Candidates in the WAVE FOUR category are likely to lose. But, if McCain's support craters in their state (as is has recently in Michigan and Virginia) anything can happen. There's more analysis at the bottom.
NORTHEAST (ME, VT, NY, MD, PA, CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ)
WAVE ONE- NY13- Mike McMahon
WAVE TWO- CT04- Jim Himes
WAVE THREE- NJ05- Dennis Shulman
WAVE FOUR- NJ04- Josh Zeitz MIDWEST (IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO)
WAVE ONE- OH01- Steve Driehaus
WAVE TWO- OH02- Vic Wulsin
WAVE THREE- OH03- Jane Mitakides
WAVE FOUR- IL06- Jill Morganthaler SOUTH (FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR)
WAVE ONE- KY02- David Boswell
WAVE TWO- VA02- Glenn Nye
WAVE THREE- SC01- Linda Ketner
WAVE FOUR- VA05- Tom Perriello WEST (NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY)
WAVE ONE- WYAL- Gary Trauner
WAVE TWO- CA04- Charlie Brown
WAVE THREE- NV03- Jill Derby
WAVE FOUR- ID01- Walt Minnick Analysis: There are 27 candidates in the WAVE ONE category. I currently project that the Democrats will lose two seats (PA11- Paul Kanjorski and FL16- Tim Mahoney). So, by my most conservative estimate, the Democrats will pick up a net of 25 seats in the House of Representatives. However, I think we're currently looking as about a WAVE 2.5 election. What I mean by that is that I anticipate that we'll win all the WAVE ONE elections, about 75% of WAVE TWO elections, and approximately 25% of WAVE THREE elections. I think we'll also win a couple of seats in WAVE FOUR, possibly including races that are not even on my radar (like Carol Shea-Porter, in 2006). To break that out for you:
WAVE ONE: 27 seats That works out to 47 pick-ups and 2 losses, for a net pickup of 45 seats. That would put the composition of the House at 281 Democrats and 154 Republicans. That is my current prediction, but it can grow or shrink depending on the trajectory of the economy and the presidential race.
2008 Congressional Forecast | 9 comments (9 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
2008 Congressional Forecast | 9 comments (9 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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