What do you think the odds are that John McCain will act like an asshole tonight?

"act"?

The Underground Railroad

Those polls have been great.  However, if those polls are strong for McCain, the feeding frenzy will be intolerable.  I'm more nervous about the post-debate polls than anything in the debate itself.

John McCain hates children

How can you compute odds on someone so random?

I guess I give it even odds.  McCain probably wants to come out swinging, but he has to know that Obama is prepared for it.  And if Obama handles the mud well, it will only hurt McCain.

But if McCain acts like an ass, the bobbleheads who aren't extensions of the RNC will call him on it.  The narrative right now is that the McCain campaign is saying ugly, horrible lies about Obama, and anything that plays into that narrative is going to get called out.  Especially if Obama handles it with the calm, cool rationality that he's shown through this entire campaign.

I think, if anything, McCain will only nibble at the edges.  I think he will continue the perpetuation of this bi-polar campaign he is running; being one thing on the trail and another at the debate table.  If he is drawn into a discussion of the unseemly side of his campaign it will probably be by Bob Schieffer. And he will fall back on his public and one-time soft repudiation of the hate speech and throw it back on Obama as to why he has not repudiated Lewis.  At that point, where the conversation goes from there is anyone's guess.  It all depends on whether everyone backs off after the initial broaching of the subject or whether someone wants to continue to pound it out.  If they pound it out, I think McCain stands to lose the argument and reinforce the erratic and angry behavior meme that has plagued him all along.  And if this scenario plays out I think the bobbleheads come down hard on him.

If he avoids the previous scenario and everything stays sane and generally boring, much like the last debate, then the bobbleheads will most certainly see something positive for McCain.  And they will look feverishly for any shred of evidence, whether it be real or circumstantial, to indicate a setup for a new comeback narrative for McCain.  They want a horse-race more than they want air to breath.  They will be absolutely moribund if they sense they will have to spend the next 20 days just waiting for the clock to run out.  So look for them to be turning over every rock they come across, looking for one last piece of evidence that their BBQ Buddy and favorite Maverick has one more Brett Favre-like comeback in his bag.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"

"Two questions:"

What do you think the odds are that John McCain will act like an asshole tonight?"

I think the odds are 10 percent.

"What do you think the odds are that the cable news bobbleheads' take-away from the debate is that John McCain acted like an asshole?"

I think the odds are 5 percent.

Other than Rachel Maddow and Keith Olbermann, possibly Campbell Brown, I don't think anyone will call McSame on it.

Much like Palin's debate, the bar is so low that all McSame has to do is not call Obama a "spear-chucking coon" on national television and he'll earn a "Well, I don't think the debate was the game changer either side needed" level tie.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

I think Bob Schieffer is going to do McCain's job for him and directly ask Obama about Ayres. Obama will then patiently explain, as he has before. McCain will go next and distort what Obama just said. Then, Bob will move them on to another subject.

And we'll all be screaming at out tv screens.

Question 1:  100%

Question 2:  0

a TPM link to Wapo:

Exclusive: Verizon and AT&T Provided Cell Towers for McCain Ranch

By the time Sen. John McCain's presidential bid was in full swing this summer, the ranch had wireless coverage from the two cellular companies most often used by campaign staff -- Verizon Wireless and AT&T.

Verizon delivered a portable tower know as a "cell site on wheels" -- free of charge -- to Cindy McCain's property in June in response to an online request from Cindy McCain's staff early last year. Such devices are usually reserved for restoring service when cell coverage is knocked out during emergencies, such as hurricanes.

In July, AT&T followed suit, wheeling in a portable tower for free to match Verizon's offer. "This is an unusual situation," said AT&T spokeswoman Claudia B. Jones. "You can't have a presidential nominee in an area where there is not cell coverage."

Over the course of the past year, Cindy McCain had offered land for a permanent cell tower and Verizon embarked on an expensive process to meet her needs, hiring contractors and seeking county land-use permits even though few people other than the McCains would benefit from the tower.

Ethics lawyers said Cindy McCain's dealings with the wireless companies stand out because Sen. John McCain is a senior member of the Senate Commerce Committee, which oversees the Federal Communications Commission and the telecommunications industry. He has been a leading advocate for industry-backed legislation, fighting regulations and taxes on telecommunications services.

That's a maverick

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

even when he tries to be nice, behind his rictus smile you see a very angry man there. Only once in the last year have I not seen him be an asshole, and that's when he conceded that Obama was a "decent family man".

Otherwise, it's been Asshole John from Jan. 1st until today. And I don't think Mr. Nice Guy will be showing up tonight.

I just hope Obama has developed a clever comeback to any Ayers discussion. I mentioned this in Steven D's diary below, but I think Obama should tell the story of South Carolina in 2000 and how sad it is that McCain has now hired those same cretins.

That would both infuriate McCain and shame him, because he knows that Rove made his wife cry back in 2000 and confronting that truth would probably unhinge him further.

What are the low information undecideds and persuadable leaners looking for at this stage?  Not a stag fight - that's strictly for the partisans who will never change their vote.  What they do want is:

1. Reassurance - that their next POTUS will have a cool head, good analytical skills, and  good grasp of the issues

2. Warmth - a sense that their next POTUS has some degree of empathy and understanding of the fears, feelings, and concerns

3. Safety - that their next POTUS will "take on the enemy" if they have to

4. Confidence - that their next POTUS has the fitness/stamina/health/poise/priorities/focus required to lead the USA through a really rough patch

5. Unity - that their next POTUS is capable of uniting the many fractious competing powers into a coherent national consensus

6. Pride - that their next POTUS will represent them well on the world stage in an era where the US is disconcertingly dependent on the good will/cooperation of others

7. Judgment  - that their next POTUS has similar values, cultural beliefs, experiences to themselves

Facts and logical argument are simply some of the props used to create such a sense around a candidate.  Chiefly the candidate has to build a relationship with his audience - undecided or persuadable voters - such that they feel he understands them and has their best interests at heart.  A lot of this is done through body language, eye contact, picking up familar themes, refrains, smiling, warmth, and an aura of awareness, smartness, and confidence.

The change Obama is asking people to believe in is embodied in his being.  Build a relationship of trust with that and he wins.  McCain is simply a prop to assist in the development of this process - he speaks to peoples fears and insecurities.  His personalised attacks on Obama actually reflect his own lack of self-confidence.  Its like saying - "I don't have the answers but this guy is no better than me"

The worse McCain behaves, the easier it becomes for Obama to present himself as the epitome of calm, Presidential, reassurance.  If McCain plays the attack dog he is only playing to Obama's strenght.

The problem for McCain is that that  is the role he has assumed in the campaign so far, and not to do so during the debate risks disheartening his own supporters who badly need their anger ventillated and their confidence restored.  However in giving in to their needs he cedes the middle ground and the game is over.  The media want a bunfight and will mark him down if he doesn't deliver.

Obama's great strength is that he doesn't have to appease his partisan base.  He is under no pressure to try to demolish McCain, he doesn't have to.  He can be respectful, even kind to McCain, and it doesn't damage his core vote -whilst reassuring all the persuadable's out there that this is a guy who can be trusted to deal sensitively with their fears - fears which, at some level, McCain has come to embody in this campaign.

McCain embodies the dark side of the fears and anxieties of an aging generation who are losing control and who need reassurance that they will not be forgotten in the new order.  Obama represents their brighter, more optimistic, and more hopeful side,  He just needs to reassure them that he understands their needs.

Having painted Obama as a black, Muslim, terrorist loving appeaser, the McCain campaign and its partisans has given Obama a relatively low bar to clear.  It is not hard for Obama to exceed those fears and expectations.  He doesn't even have to win the argument.  

"We reported back to hearts what we had seen, and told our footsteps all about where we had been."

McCain will run the gamit tonight. He's still fighting VietNam, his father and grandfather's legacies none of which he has managed to bring honor to and I think Obama represents the person he has just never been able to find within himself, so he may end the night with a Bush 2000 moment of 'never mind then, screw ya' and just walk off the stage and that might be the first honorable thing he's done in years. (well that's my fantasy)

speaking of assholes...i wonder if cindy mccain gets her asshole bleached.

Edible panties taste like crap.