Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

The Late Break

by BooMan
Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 02:07:03 PM EST

Whether people are stealing McCain signs out of people's yards or people are just removing them from their yards on their own, there are noticeably less McCain signs in Chester County, Pennsylvania than there were in September. Roughly 90% of the signs I'm seeing that are actually on someone's property (versus, on public land) are for Democratic candidates. And this is an historically Republican county.

The latest Pew Research poll tells the story.

Barack Obama leads John McCain by a 52% to 36% margin in Pew’s latest nationwide survey of 1,325 registered voters. This is the fourth consecutive survey that has found support for the Republican candidate edging down. In contrast, since early October weekly Pew surveys have shown about the same number of respondents saying they back Obama. When the sample is narrowed to those most likely to vote, Obama leads by 53% to 38%.

McCain cannot afford to crater late because he already has a major built-in deficit that he must overcome on election day.

Just as ominous for the Republican candidate, Obama holds a 53% to 34% lead among the sizable minority of voters (15%) who say they have already voted. Among those who plan to vote early but have not yet voted (16% of voters), 56% support Obama, while 37% support McCain.

In other words, Obama is running 19 points ahead right now. That would be a total wipeout with staggering downticket fallout. McCain should be able to close the gap a little on Election Day, but the survey shows that McCain is trailing by 18 points among people that plan to vote on election day.

A big premise of the Republican spinmeisters is that the undecided voters will break late for John McCain, but it doesn't look like that is happening. I think McCain voters are actually changing their minds as they realize that their candidate is unlikely to win.

I have always thought that this election would break very hard in one direction or the other. One candidate was going to win the argument and we would not see another nailbiting election. I think we're beginning to see that now.

The Late Break | 24 comments (24 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: The Late Break (4.00 / 2)

where i live in delaware im in between the rich mansions and the projects.....i have not seen one mccain sign.....anywhere....and i took a ride thru media pa the other day.....i lived in the poor people black neighborhood which was one block from the mansions....i didnt see one mccain sign there either.....in any neighborhood.....and all my ladies on my old block are proudly flying their obama signs and flags and stickers....homemade and professional....everywhere....and they all know to be ready next tuesday morning for their ride to the polls. i went to get my nails done and they are flying their obama signs....i have never seen any political sign at the nail salon.

i just got back from widener where i saw obama....im going to die of pneumonia but i had to go....i dragged my girlfriend who is 55 yrs old and has never voted in her life....she already has a sinus infection and some good drugs so i filled her up with coffee and donuts and promised her chocolate if she would go.....this is a person who has never watched the news, never read a political blog, doesnt read the paper....in her past she has been a stripper, a prostitute, and the property of a motorcycle gang member....she has lived quite a life on the edge of society (she has great stories)....and now she is going to vote for the first time. she was in tears listening to obama. yesterday she wasnt even aware when the election was. its pretty cool.

its looking more and more like i will be shipping a cheesesteak to oscar in louisville (i did not forget my promise)

by anna in philly (flymetothemoon@yahoo.com) on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 04:20:19 PM EST

No shortage of McCain signs on my street (none / 0)

or in my town. But when Kerry ran, there were almost no - and I mean no - Kerry signs in Grand Rapids. There are tons of Obama signs here this time around. I suspect that there will be pockets of counties and such where McCain will win, SW corner of the state where I live. But I believe MI will go to Obama big overall.

Cheney/Voldemort '08

by wolverine writer on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 02:12:56 PM EST

Re: No shortage of McCain signs on my street (none / 0)

He's polling over 20% ahead in Michigan.

by BooMan on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 02:24:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No shortage of McCain signs on my street (none / 0)

I was just out in Grandville two weeks ago - it was a sea of McCain signs. Not too many McCain/Palin signs, tho.

Spent almost a week there - great people, although there were some underlying hints. Two separate but similar conversations with people who told me that Detroit and Flint, wink, wink, gave MI a bad rap.

Such is life. I wasn't there to convert anyone, and these folks were all participating in a community project. No lectures from me - less than 2% minority in NH.

by granitestater on Tue Oct 28th, 2008 at 03:18:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: No shortage of McCain signs on my street (none / 0)

I'm in GR proper, as it were, NW side of the city. More support for Obama right here, less in a burb like Grandville. The further you move toward the lake from here, the more red the state.

Good people, though, like you said - at least by and large. They are right, though, and I've known it for a long time - when this state goes blue, its because of the eastern half of the state.

Cheney/Voldemort '08

by wolverine writer on Wed Oct 29th, 2008 at 06:42:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]