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Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached

by BooMan
Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 12:49:22 AM EST

I don't think I've articulated this theory on the blog. I've, so far, reserved it for conversations with my friends. But for quite a while I've had a theory that Barack Obama would win this election if he ever, even for a moment, convinced 50% of the voters in this country to vote for him. Here's my reasoning.

It's obvious that the Bush administration has been a failure of epic proportions. It's also obvious that the Gingrich Revolution is over and has failed. In the natural order of things, the Democrats will get a turn at the White House. Moreover, Barack Obama is a uniquely talented politician and leader. There's simply no reason why he shouldn't win, and McCain offers nothing convincing to suggest otherwise. Almost any Democrat would be favored to win this election over almost any Republican. Obama is certainly favored to beat McCain.

But...Obama is different. He's biracial. He's got a funny name. He's had a meteoric rise and doesn't have a tremendous amount of experience. He's urban and urbane. He's cosmopolitan, he's Ivy League. In short, he has a cultural disconnect with a lot of American voters, including a lot of traditional Democrats. 'Cultural disconnect' could be a polite way of saying that this country has a lot of rednecks. And it does. But I don't mean that term to be so harsh. A lot of people just have a hard time computing the idea of a guy like Barack Obama being president of the United States. A lot of people have to overcome a feeling of unease or discomfort. And that unease has held Obama's numbers down in both the primaries and the general election.

But, the way I figure it, once someone overcomes that feeling of cultural alienation, even for a moment, and comes to accept the idea of Barack Obama as President of the United States, there is no going back. The argument in his favor is obvious, and no amount of fear-mongering is going to change the mind of someone once they have let their mind be opened. In other words, once a voter gets to the point where they will consider and accept the idea of a half-black president, the biggest obstacle has been overcome. At that point, you have to rely on winning the argument on its merits. You are now judging Obama by the content of his character and the worth of his ideas.

And once Obama convinced 50% of the people to do that? He had this thing won.

Let's hope I am right.

Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

The main blogger at PoliticalInaction.com has a (4.00 / 2)

slogan:

Once you go Barack, you never go back.

LOL

His reasoning is the same as yours. For a lot of White folks, the decision to vote for Barack Obama is about the hardest thing they've ever done. Once they make that decision - it's DONE.

PERIOD.

by rikyrah on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:09:42 AM EST

Re: The main blogger (none / 1)

I don't know if it is done, as in irreversible, but the debate shifts to the merits, where the terrain is very favorable.

by BooMan on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:20:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

I wouldn't say it's done at that point, but, yeah, it's pretty close.

Hopefully the Obama campaign handles the last few weeks well. I'm sure they've had it planned out. We saw the "terrorist" and "kill him" stuff yesterday at the McCain and Palin rallies, and hopefully everyone knows: You ain't seen nothin' yet. These last few weeks are going to be uglier than I'd bet most can imagine.

I don't think it'll work for McCain, but little money has been lost betting on stupidity in American politics.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 12:27:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (4.00 / 4)

I've been uncomfortable with my President very nearly my entire life. Fuck em. It's their turn to be uncomfortable... and get used to it.

by Andrew Longman on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 05:18:16 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

Yeah, we have had a long, long serious of lousy, flawed presidents. Kennedy had promise, altough his brief administration has a rocky record. Eisenhower was the last competent president, in my view, and he made some rather serious errors, including his decision to get involved in Iran's internal affairs, and to let the CIA run wild in general, including with the Bay of Pigs planning. But Ike ran an efficient government, managed prosperity, ended an unpopular war, and kept the country's internal divisions from flaring. GrandMary, who is appoaching a century on this earth, said Ike was the best president she'd seen, and she's seen everyone since Taft. That means something to me. I was shocked she didn't say FDR.

In any case, it has been a long, long time since we had a president that was both decent and competent.

by BooMan on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:00:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

That sentiment is key in my opinion.

mbr + dv + woyg

by keirdubois (keir@mybandrocks.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 02:47:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (4.00 / 2)

When I vote, I want to vote for someone who I think has values similar to mine. There are two men running for president. One graduated from the Naval Academy and spent more than 20 years in the Navy. One did not serve in the U.S miltary. I spent 21 years in the Navy.

To me it is not important whether the President of the United States has ever served in the military. Many presidents have not served, some did a good job - FDR - some did a horrible job - Saint Ronnie.

Here are some items that are important to me. If at all possible, stay married to your first spouse. Mrs Chief and I have been married for almost 48 years. I am 'still' on my first wife.

Senator Obama is still married to his first wife.

According to Senator McCain's first wife, she said, "John was forty and he wanted to be twenty-five." Senator McCain's second wife is 18 years his junior.

I have never swore at or called my wife derogatory names. If Senator Obama has I'm sure we'd heard about it. He seems to respect women in general and the person he shares his life with inn particular, the same as me.

I've seen a video clip of Senator McCain calling his wife a derogatory name (slang for a female body part) when she was kidding him about his thinning hair.

Senator McCain graduated fro the Naval Academy fifth from the bottom of his class. Senator Obama graduated from Harvard Law and was the editor of the Law Review. You have to be among the best-of-the-best to accomplish that.

I graduated Summa Cum Laude. Granted, I did not finish law school, but at least I got admitted and tried.

Senator McCain has joked about bombing Iran. Senator Obama has talked about talking with other world leaders. I certainly cannot fight with my neighbors whenever I disagree with them. We talk and work out any problems like civilized people.

The fact that Senator Obama's skin is a different shade than mine means nothing to me. Race is a political construct. We are all one species Homo Sapiens Sapiens on God's green earth.

by Chief on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 09:41:20 AM EST

Bravo, Chief. n/t (none / 0)

by JayBat on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 01:09:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

Also available in orange.

by BooMan on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 12:53:54 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 1)

Well said.

I'd add one more detail. Democrats are energized and Obama has built a campaign organization to leverage that in GOTV. Republicans are not and McCain has not.

So, even if those polls don't get the likely voter models right, a 50+% showing for Obama is hard to beat.

by SLJ on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 04:52:35 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

back in june i wrote:

... whoever gets the democratic nomination is the de facto next president. in effect, the democratic primary is the general election.

why was i so confident? back in may 2006 i wrote:

... republicans are too fractured to unite and too cynical and corrupt to invest the energy needed to enact real tangible benefits for the electorate.

seeming like puppets of their own sorry nature, mccain and the republicans have lashed themselves firmly to the deck of their titanic.

but it didn't have to be that way. all they had to do was trust that the electorate would reward them for good governance. instead they chose to pander to its worst prejudices. theirs was not the party of hope.

i'm glad you asked

by aarrgghh on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 05:19:31 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

but it didn't have to be that way. all they had to do was trust that the electorate would reward them for good governance. instead they chose to pander to its worst prejudices. theirs was not the party of hope.

Here's the problem - fundamentally the modern Republican party does not believe in good governance. There are individuals within the party who do, but the fundamental tenor of the Republican Party is that there's no such thing as "good" governance.

Look at the bulk of their coalition at this point - religious conservatives who see the only purpose of the Federal government as a national stopgap against the expansion of rights to groups that they don't want to see rights extended to (gays and women most notably). Anti-tax nutbars who see any form of taxation by the government as theft and any attempt at governance as spending stolen money. Neoconservatives who only see the Federal government as a useful tool for conducting global foreign policy. Big Business cons who see the Feds as a useful tool for funnelling money into their own pockets. And, of course, the "know-nothing" contingent who just let their fear and hate control their votes - the groups who want to see fences built at the borders and more bombing runs against scary brown people in the mid-East. Of course there's some overlap in these groups but none of them are big on "governance".

The only portion of their coalition that has an inkling of good governance are the traditional economic conservatives. Who are now doing things like retiring without endorsing the Republican on the ticket, or actively endorsing Obama, or in some places (as in Kansas) becoming Democrats because it's clear that the Democrats actually want to have a functioning government and that without good governance the best you can hope for is disaster control.

This is also why the lousiest, most corrupt pols we've seen in decades have been wound up tightly in the Republican machine. Because if you don't care about good governance you've got nothing stopping you from just openly being a crook. And if your voters are putting you into office for reasons other than governance - to gut taxes, to stop groups they don't like from getting rights - then they don't really care if you're a crook as long as you deliver. (Of course the Republicans haven't really delivered on these things to the bulk of their voters either - which is another reason they're doing so poorly now).

by nonynony on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:43:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

nony, there's a resonance there.

It's finally sinking into a lot of people that people who are not regulating aren't, you know, regulating. They know about people who are getting robbed by incredibly crooked mortgage deals and they see the hundreds of billions going into the pockets of fatcats.

They know whose fault it is. They know they were lied to about the war. They see cities lying in ruins and forests burning down as national guard units get ground down into the sand in Iraq.

There will be people who vote for McCain for fear or hate of the black man. But even some of those people are willing to set aside their hate and prejudice to save the country.

by Bob In Pacifica on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 09:34:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

I agree. We should not overestimate the psychological, subliminal, and even unconscious barriers which had to be overcome before many people could even think of voting for "a black man" as President. Do not underestimate the importance of prior role models like Colin Powell and Condi Rice in making this thinkable. Even more apparently trivially, do not underestimate the importance of key black actors like Denzil Washington appearing as competent in roles of grave authority in the popular imagination.

Many of the factors which determine how people vote are almost entirely unconscious - and even unintentional. If they can imagine a black man as President, that is half the battle won. Hollywood has played a key role here. Winning that battle probably only gets Obama to an even playing field - but that is all he needs to win.

"We reported back to hearts what we had seen, and told our footsteps all about where we had been."

by Frank Schnittger (Frankschnittger at hotmail dotty communists) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 06:41:30 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

It would be fun to list out the roles and actors who have shaped the US subconscious on the possibility/acceptability of Black men in positions of Authority over the years. Any film buffs around here?

"We reported back to hearts what we had seen, and told our footsteps all about where we had been."

by Frank Schnittger (Frankschnittger at hotmail dotty communists) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 06:43:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mr. President (4.00 / 2)

24's David Palmer is probably the most significant IMO - the conservative males who make up the primary viewership of the show love David Palmer. I'm sure that at a minimum that opens up the possibility of Barrack in their minds, it doesn't seem to be as absurd as it might have 8-10 years ago to them.

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:05:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Agreed (none / 0)

I'm sure Barack could have succeeded without David Palmer, but Palmer made it a much more credible idea.

by existenz on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:36:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mr. President (none / 0)

I've never watched the show, but based on everything I have heard it really glorifies torture (which is one of the reasons I have never watched it). So, please tell me conservative males don't love David Palmer - and therefore accept Obama - because he is a proxy for their sadistic urges!

by Hurria (Muslawia@gmail.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 12:49:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mr. President (none / 0)

Actually, President Palmer recoiled at torture. He was consistent in his principles, to the point of divorcing his wife because of his principles.

The Underground Railroad

by Oscar In Louisville on Wed Oct 8th, 2008 at 12:01:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (4.00 / 2)

Morgan Freeman comes to mind. Wasn't he even the president in a asteroid hits globe movie?

It might have started as early as the 70s with the stereotypical screaming black police sergeant who was an ass but always right.

John McCain hates children

by magster on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 09:55:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 1)

Sidney Poitier was the first who came to mind.

"I never trust people who don't laugh." Maya Angelou, March 5, 2009

by Indianadem on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 07:06:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't Underestimate the Field Operation (none / 0)

There is a huge field operation essentially doing psychological counseling for racists in the South, in South Philly, in South Boston, in Bensonhurst, in West Virginia, in Virginia, and....

And offering them the opportunity to change and vote for their own self-interest for the first time in forty years. Not only is there a tipping point approaching or actually here in the campaign, but there is a tipping point approaching on tolerance in a lot of the "boonies" of the nation.

Oprah had a guest who nailed the issue: House of Fear -- or -- House of Hope: where are you living? Understand that insight over against Oprah's demographics.

50 states, 210 media market, 435 Congressional Districts, 3080 counties, 192,480 precincts

by TarheelDem on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 08:13:34 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

Good analysis, Booman. The other part of the equation is that a lot of Republicans won't show up because they are so discouraged.

by eagleye on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:18:14 AM EST

Interesting theory (none / 1)

But I have a sense that in two weeks, when the polls have tightened up again (they won't stay this way forever) a lot of bloggers are going to be kicking themselves for thinking this thing was in the bag already.

Four weeks is a hell of a long time. McCain was ahead in Gallup just two weeks ago, he could easily be ahead in another two weeks.

I hope Obama kicks ass tonight and really connects with the voters.

by existenz on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:34:03 AM EST

Re: Interesting theory (none / 0)

Exactly. It ain't over until (chads willing) the a.m. of Nov 5.

mbr + dv + woyg

by keirdubois (keir@mybandrocks.com) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 02:51:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 0)

It seems that the tipping point has happened in Kenya
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081007/ap_on_re_af/af_kenya_obama_author_detained

Visit me at Tunnel Traveller

by Teacher Toni (tacoralatyahoodotcom) on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 10:41:29 AM EST

Re: Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached (none / 1)

The only toss up state that RCP has McSame ahead in right now is Indiana. Even Missouri is slightly leaning Obama at this point.

Even Georgia(!!!) might be in play for Obama once again, McCain is only up by 8 there now.

If Obama can layeth the smacketh down tonight, he can drive a stake into McSame's campaign that could finish him for good.

More at Zandar vs. The Stupid.

by Zandar1 on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 11:54:26 AM EST

I think the Dem primaries attest to the theory (none / 1)

Of course Obama didn't win all the primaries, but his polling trend lines were consistently upwards, especially as election day approached.

There were just a few exceptions, most notably in the two states where he had no campaign presence: FL and MI.

My reference source : Pollster.com

As as Senator Claire McCaskill said on Rachel Maddow's show,

[I]n a state like mine, that is, you know, moderate to conservative, they want to get to know him. And as time goes on, [...] they getting to know him and feeling more comfortable with the fact that he's going to be their champion...

I think a corollary to the theory is that those voters who make a decision based on racial considerations have already decided to vote against Obama. Therefore, the polls already reflect those mostly-static preferences, and McCain has nothing to gain from this group.

by Sawgrass on Tue Oct 7th, 2008 at 12:31:03 PM EST

Obama's Tipping Point Has Been Reached | 28 comments (28 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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