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by BooMan
I've broken out my congressional forecast into five categories (or waves). And I have also separated the races out by region. I expect that candidates in WAVE ONE will win (90+ percent confidence). Candidates in WAVE TWO are pure toss-ups. I expect to win 40%-60% of these races. Candidates in WAVE THREE are showning weakness in the polls, but have other factors (like DCCC money, favorable districts, or Obama's groundgame) that could get them over the top. As of right now, I only expect about 30% of them to win. Candidates in the WAVE FOUR category are likely to lose due to either to lack of money, the strengths of the opponent, or the redness of their districts. The WAVE FOUR category is dominated by overperforming Democrats, who have raised a lot of money and/or run brilliant campaigns. I expect that at least 10% of them will pull out shocking upsets. I have added a WAVE FIVE category in this final analysis. Candidates in the fifth wave are barely showing a pulse, but cannot be ruled out. Some of the late polling in the presidential race is indicating a true historical landslide. Should that really come to pass, some WAVE FIVE candidates will surely be swept along. I give each of them about a 5% chance of winning. There will be more analysis at the bottom.
NORTHEAST (ME, VT, NY, MD, PA, CT, DE, MA, NH, RI, WV, NJ)
WAVE ONE- CT04- Jim Himes
WAVE TWO- NJ05- Dennis Shulman
WAVE THREE- NY26- Alice Kryzan
WAVE FOUR- NJ04- Josh Zeitz
WAVE FIVE- PA06- Bob Roggio MIDWEST (IL, MN, MI, OH, WI, IA, MO, KS, IN, ND, SD, OK, TX, NE, CO)
WAVE ONE- OH01- Steve Driehaus
WAVE TWO- OH02- Vic Wulsin
WAVE THREE- OH03- Jane Mitakides
WAVE FOUR- IA05- Ron Hubler
WAVE FIVE- IN04- Nels Ackerson SOUTH (FL, NC, SC, AL, MS, GA, VA, TN, KY, LA, AR)
WAVE ONE- VA11- Gerry Connelly
WAVE TWO- FL21- Raul Martinez
WAVE THREE- VA02- Glenn Nye
WAVE FOUR- VA05- Tom Perriello
WAVE FIVE- NC05- Roy Carter WEST (NM, CA, OR, WA, AK, HI, MT, ID, UT, NV, AZ, WY)
WAVE ONE- NM01- Martin Heinrich
WAVE TWO- WYAL- Gary Trauner WAVE THREE- CA50- Nick Liebham
WAVE FOUR- CA03- Bill Durston
WAVE FIVE- CA26- Russ Warner Analysis: There are 28 candidates in the WAVE ONE category. I currently project that the Democrats will lose three seats (PA11- Paul Kanjorski, FL16- Tim Mahoney, TX22- Nick Lampson). For the purposes of my predictions, I project the Dems will win:
WAVE ONE (90%*28 seats)= 25 seats
TOTAL PICKUPS= 39 seats
CURRENT CONGRESS= 236 Democrats, 199 Republicans
Final House Elections Predictions +36 | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
Final House Elections Predictions +36 | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)
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