Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

Clinton's Problem in Texas

by BooMan
Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 10:02:44 AM EST

Karl-Thomas Musselman analyzes polling out of Texas on a Senate District by Senate District basis (which is a little imprecise) and comes to a startling conclusion. Even with a 49%-41% state-wide lead, Hillary Clinton is poised to come out of Texas with a net loss of six delegates. At least, she stands to lose six delegates in the primary portion of the Texas contest. Texas will also conduct a caucus on the same day as the primary, and that will be factored into the final allocation of delegates. Musselman's conclusion is based on delegate splits. In regions where Clinton is polling ahead, there are very few districts with an odd number of delegates available, and the opposite is true in regions where Obama is leading.

Musselman makes a few other interesting observations. There is an interesting split between voters that are planning to vote early (Obama 46% Clinton 42%) and those that plan to wait until election day to cast their vote (Clinton 51% Obama 40%). This odd distinction can probably be explained by differential enthusiasm. Obama voters are more motivated, even if there are less of them. Yet, that greater motivation that has served Obama so well in caucus states could wind up hurting Obama in Texas' caucus. Why?

The caucuses begin at 7:15pm, after the primary vote is over. People that voted early may be less inclined to show up than people that voted the same day. (To learn more about the complex system in Texas, go here and here).

Overall, Clinton's problem is that she needs to get 62.5% of the vote in her areas to get extra delegates, while Obama has a lot of opportunities to pick up delegates with a bare plurality of the vote in his areas (primarily Austin, Dallas/Ft. Worth, and Houston). I don't know if Clinton can do better in the caucus portion, but there are some troubling signs. The Obama campaign is more motivated and has a better ground game.

Obama is going to build an initial lead in early voting, unlike in California where early voting strongly favored Clinton. And as long as he can keep it close in Hillary's areas, he will come away with a delegate lead in the primary portion. Recent history suggests that he'll do better in the caucus portion, too. Since this is the lay of the land with Obama polling behind by 8 points, imagine the situation if he narrows the gap?

Hillary might win Texas, but her chances of significantly narrowing Obama's lead in pledged delegates is not good. Perhaps Ohio will offer more fertile ground.

Clinton's Problem in Texas | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

yes, yes, the dual TX prima/caucus is the reason I've said Texas will surprise. As noted the math does not favor Clinton.

And There's time for Obama to close the 8% gap.

Time = advantage, Obama.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 10:16:41 AM EST

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 1)

New Rasmussen puts her up 54%-38%.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:01:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

Thanks BooMan. that's not a typo - but who to believe?

I read a different poll over at TPM:

The IVR poll gives Hillary 49% to Obama's 41%. As in many other primary states, Hillary leads with women, Latinos and older voters, while Obama wins with men, African-Americans and younger voters. In short, neither candidate has really eaten into the other's base here, and this looks like it's going to be a close race.

ain't over 'til it's over....And the fat lady sings..."something is happening here"

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:28:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

who to believe? Maybe this is also a typo?

We have another poll, today Feb. 15 2008, from ARG: Texas Primary Preference seems in line with that IVR poll.

Obama 48%

Clinton 42%

Democrats     TX
Clinton     42%
Obama     48%
Someone else 3%
Undecided     7%
Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama among self-described Democrats 47% to 42%. Obama leads Clinton among self-described independents and Republicans 24% to 71%. Obama leads among men 55% to 29% (47% of likely Democratic primary voters) and Clinton leads among women 54% to 42%. Clinton leads Obama among white voters 51% to 40% (53% of likely Democratic primary voters), Obama leads Clinton among African American voters 76% to 17% (22% of likely Democratic primary voters), and Clinton leads Obama among Latino voters 44% to 42%.
22% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Hillary Clinton in the Democratic primary and 20% of likely Democratic primary voters say they would never vote for Barack Obama in the primary. 30% of men say they would never vote for Clinton in the primary.
For details, click on the 2008 Presidential Polls.

Hmmmm. I'll try to ignore.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 12:01:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

One of the things that gets frequently overlooked by the lay public (and talking heads, too) in polling data is methodology -- particularly the distinction of "registered" (voters, Dems) and "likely" voters.

Another source of polling variability, which interacts with the likely v. registered sampling categories, is the "open" and "closed" primary. Open primaries are difficult to forecast largely because independents can participate in either party's primary. This also compounds yet another large source of variability -- turnout.

There are other problems, too, such as wording differences and data collection techniques (e.g., automated polling, etc.).

I doubt people are interested in all this. Given the high inherent variability, a good rule of thumb is to roughly average out the different polls, as well as expecting low predictivity.

"..the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. .. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked.." - Goering

by colinski on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 09:18:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 1)

Fascinating. Bizarre, but fascinating. Is there some part of Texas' delegate apportionment process that involves drinking shots of tequila lined up at the bar at two in the morning?

by Bob In Pacifica on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:01:31 AM EST

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 1)

Texas. It's a whole other country.

I always hate to get my hopes up about Texas because ... well, it's Texas. But this certainly looks promising.

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:23:41 AM EST

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

I think the John Lewis endorsement might be the final straw. This is a lot bigger than the media is letting on.

And you have to love the subtle racism in this NYT headline:

Black Leader, a Clinton Ally, Tilts to Obama
MILWAUKEE -- Representative John Lewis, an elder statesman from the civil rights era and one of Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton's most prominent black supporters, said Thursday night that he planned to cast his vote as a superdelegate for Senator Barack Obama in hopes of preventing a fight at the Democratic convention.

Tilting, is he? Interesting choice of words. I might have used a more obvious verb, perhaps "switches" or "changes." But the Times sees as Lewis tilting. Do they mean "leaning?" No. Lewis has stated that he's changed his position; he's not "leaning" in a new direction. This leaves us with only one other possibility:

Tilting at windmills is an English idiom which means attacking imaginary enemies, or fighting otherwise-unwinable battles. The word "tilt," here, comes from jousting.
This idiomatic phrase originated in the novel Don Quixote, and is often used today in reference to persistent engagement in a futile activity. At one point in the novel, Don Quixote fights windmills that he imagines to be giants. Quixote sees the windmill blades as the giant's arms, for instance. Here is the relevant portion of the novel:
Just then they came in sight of thirty or forty windmills that rise from that plain. And no sooner did Don Quixote see them that he said to his squire, "Fortune is guiding our affairs better than we ourselves could have wished. Do you see over yonder, friend Sancho, thirty or forty hulking giants? I intend to do battle with them and slay them. With their spoils we shall begin to be rich for this is a righteous war and the removal of so foul a brood from off the face of the earth is a service God will bless."
"What giants?" asked Sancho Panza.
"Those you see over there," replied his master, "with their long arms. Some of them have arms well nigh two leagues in length."
"Take care, sir," cried Sancho. "Those over there are not giants but windmills. Those things that seem to be their arms are sails which, when they are whirled around by the wind, turn the millstone."

Yes, friends, Lewis is doing Sancho Panza to Barak Obama's Don Quixote.

And, according to the Times, we, too, are tilting at windmills.

The liberal media strikes again.

p.s. Has image embedding been disabled for this website? I tried like five different image-hosting services and none of the HTML tags would work. Please forgive my ignorance if this an old question.

"If Adolph Hitler flew in today, they'd send a limousine anyway" -- Joe Strummer

by urizon (cognitivediss@gmail.com) on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:40:56 AM EST

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

It's hard to say what Lewis means. SEE: http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/02/15/politics/horserace/entry3837215.shtml

"..the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. .. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked.." - Goering

by colinski on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 09:56:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

That ARG poll is interesting since the ENTIRE primary season they have been wrong and ALWAYS over estimated the ClintonS lead.
That poll with Obama behind 6 is a good sign!

by gaiilonfong on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 12:20:02 PM EST

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

I dunno. I have this strong sense that whoever wins Wisconsin wins it all. No rational basis, just my sense of how things are working.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 12:38:23 PM EST

Re: Clinton's Problem in Texas (none / 0)

Ye old trendlines are not good. Ohio actually looks better for Clinton. I suppose they are fighting for Texas to show two "wins" so they can sputter on.

by ILuvChez17 on Fri Feb 15th, 2008 at 11:21:43 PM EST

Clinton's Problem in Texas | 12 comments (12 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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