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Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum?

by BooMan
Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:00:08 PM EST

There's no question that all the momentum is on Barack Obama's side, but there is some question about whether Super Tuesday will come too soon. And then there is a second question: will Super Tuesday unravel Obama's momentum if he loses more states and delegates than Clinton? Right now it looks like Obama will win Illinois, Georgia, and Colorado. And he has a good shot at winning Alabama, Connecticut and some of the smaller caucus states. It also looks like he will poll well enough in the states he loses to bring in over 40% of the delegates there. In other words, it looks like Feb. 5th will be a good day for Clinton but it will not eliminate, or even cripple, Obama's campaign.

Here's how the post Super Tuesday schedule looks for February:

9 - Louisiana, Nebraska caucus, Washington caucus, U.S. Virgin Islands caucus
10 - Maine caucus
12 - D.C., Maryland, Virginia
19 - Hawaii, Wisconsin

Obama has some strengths in these states. Washington DC will surely give him a resounding victory. Obama grew up in Hawaii and should win that state easily. Ben Nelson has endorsed him, which is very meaningful in the Nebraska caucus. I expect him to win the Virgin Islands caucus, for what it's worth.

But all of that will not be enough. Obama will have to win big prizes like Louisiana, Washington state, Virginia, and Maryland. That's certainly possible, but only if Obama can maintain his momentum even through a narrow defeat next Tuesday. Unless, of course, he doesn't suffer a narrow defeat next Tuesday, but actually wins.

Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? | 53 comments (53 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 1)

I'll be voting for Obama next Tuesday in Massachusetts. Most of the Democratic Establishment (except our Governor and two Senators) are on board the Clinton Bandwagon. Don't be surprised if the grassroots ignore the professional politicians and rally behind Obama.

by eddeevy (eddeevy@cs.com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:24:42 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Time could defeat Obama and no where does this seem to be true than in MA, where the point differential is so large, it would take a miracle for Obama to pull it off. Not likely. Still it is not winner take all and one can only hope that he pulls enough votes to substantially close the gap.

by shergald on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:12:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

the stars for the Obama movement does an anthem?

Mr. Dippy: Yes We Can

Watch the video
(h/t:Andrew Sullivan)

what do you think?

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:59:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I think the place where Obama has the biggest chance of pulling out an upset victory is my own state: California.

Edwards dropping out really helps Obama here. I can't tell you how many people I heard from in the last few days who said well, now that Edwards is gone, I have to go with Obama.

In addition, his trajectory has been steep in the last week here. He closed the gap from 20 points behind to 3 points behind in the last two weeks.

The only question is whether all those early voters already selected Clinton, and whether if they had waited, they would still have selected Clinton.

Obama's gotten some amazing endorsements from the Latino community here. I attended a rally with several leaders, followed by the true leader of our party, Ted Kennedy (I even got my Obama sign autographed by Ted!!)

I have not gotten a single call from a Clinton campaign person or volunteer. I suspect most people in my neighborhood have not either. But the Obama troops are very active on the ground here.

California is absolutely in play right now. I hope any others here from CA will go volunteer at the nearest location to help get out the vote on the fifth. I took the day off so I could help in any way I can.

If Obama wins CA, there's no stopping him. He'll do well here and split the vote with Clinton either way, but the symbolic victory for him would be huge. For her, not so much. She's expected to win, so her bounce from that would be minimal. He's NOT yet expected to win here, so his bounced from the most delegate-rich state in the country would be tremendous.

Got hope? I do, right now..!!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:25:17 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Sounds good, Lisa, and it seems certain that an Obama win in CA would make him the new "unstoppable". I kind of envy the excitement there -- here in Illinois we're gonna have an Obama blowout, period. Even though both candidates have good claim to be favorite offspring.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:55:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Fantastic! Have you been to his National HQ yet? I wish I were in Chicago - it's much more fun being in the national epicenter than in a 'branch office'..!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:27:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

California (none / 1)

I'm blown away by the Obama-mania sweeping my little corner of SoCal. We were going to go to the Ted Kennedy rally yesterday and my daughter had an Obama button I bought in Chicago on her purse. Well, I feel asleep and was too late to attend, but when we went out and when she showed people her button, they were excited.

I talked to this old Asian couple (she is 98, he is 93) and they said, "We've always voted Republican, but this year we're voting for Obama, so we can change this country." Then the lady yelled, "Si se puede!" and the people in line behind us started chanting Obama's name. It was hilarious. My daughter was like, "How do they know him? Did they go to Chicago too?"

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by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:58:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California (none / 0)

I was there! Too bad - are paths almost crossed!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:28:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh man! (none / 0)

I got up early, was all prettified, got the kid dressed, then what happened? I laid down for moment, next thing I knew it was 10am. My daughter said, "Are we going to see Orack Obama and Teddy Candy, now?" And I still had to buy diapers for the kid and paper for a print job.

Ugh. Kept trying to explain to her that "Orack Obama" wasn't going to be there and that we had errands to run. Do you know I had to placate her with almost 20 videos of Obama giving speeches?

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:35:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I sent in my CA absentee ballot for Obama. I waited until late last week as I was leaning Edwards. However, my wife voted for Hillary. There's a lot of traditional Dems in CA who love the Clintons and I believe Hillary got a large percentage of the early voter.

I think the Obama momentum is happening too late! IMO, Hillary will have the "wins" in the big states NY & CA and the higher delegate count although Obama would have made up a large deficit. But the story coming out on Tue night is Clinton wins! It will not be Obama catches up or Race close.

What will happen I believe is that neither candidate will have the required number of delegates. However, Hillary will have more delegates than Obama. So at the convention with Bill's influence the party machinery will crown Hillary as the nominee. And she may then compromise and make Barack as the VP nominee.

by ab initio on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:59:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

thus, the second question I ask. Can Obama continue to build support and momentum even after losing on Tuesday? It's not a question I know the answer to, but the closer the results, the better the likelihood.

by BooMan on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:05:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I think it depends on which votes he gets where, and from which demographics.

I also think the endorsements will keep rolling in. It's noticeable that he's gotten the endorsement of most of the major papers across the country, not counting the NYT.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:30:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Hush. Worst case, a draw. I have more faith and hope in Obama's ground GOTV campaign - little overlooked. Also, take heart in this Gallup Poll:

Recall that Gender Advantage thingy that Clinton Has over Obama?

Strike that. She's lost 8 points

[]But in recent days, the overall gap between Clinton and her only remaining serious competitor, Sen. Barack Obama, has been closing, and an analysis of the patterns of vote choice by gender shows that Obama's gains over the last 10 days have come disproportionately among women. Clinton has been losing more support from women than from men, in essence moving closer to a point where the "gender playing field" has been leveled.[.]
Jan. 28-30 shows that while Clinton's level of support among men has essentially stayed the same, she has lost 8 points among women. At the same time, Obama has gained 6 points among men, but has gained even more -- 13 points -- among women.

NH can only be used once. How is Bill doing?...heard he's baaack. He blamed Ted Kennedy for NCLB flaws... read also he has prepared another apology to Af-Ams.

Forgot, Feb is Black History month.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:47:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 1)

Obama's ground game is absolutely amazing. He had anywhere from 12K-15K volunteers in SC, but the stat I heard is that he had 1 volunteer for every 23 voters. I can't say since I was based in Orangeburg and got there on Friday, but I can tell you that about 10 minutes after we arrived, about 5 people arrived from NJ. Five min. after that, someone came in from St. Louis. We met volunteers from Miss. and Ga. and of course, many folks from NC.

Re: Bill Clinton and Sen. Kennedy--Bill's pissed off at him, so he's bringing up Kennedy's work on NCLB. Teachers HATE it and can't stand Kennedy for working on it. I used to work for a teacher's organization, so I know that "hate" isn't a strong word when it comes to NCLB. One teacher told me a few years ago that she couldn't stand Kennedy because "he sold us out."

All that said, I don't remember Clinton's work to stop NCLB.

Billary will say anything; change nothing. As far as I'm concerned, Bill can just STFU; he really believes he can say anything and he'll be forgiven in the end. It won't.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:46:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I read that Obama has 75,000 volunteers moving from state to state. An astonishing number added to local volunteers.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 05:53:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I don't know how any Democrat could have voted for no child left behind, or the bankruptcy bill, or the patriot at, or the Iraq war authorization ... maybe this is why I frequently vote third party candidates.

by shaej on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 08:27:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

NCLB was passed in the days of "let's be bi-partisan," when Dems gave Bush a shot, trusted him. Wrong move. NCLB is a bad set up. It's utterly unworkable, and from day one, it's been maligned by education professionals.

My personal favorite is "No Child's Behind Left." I wish I could say that I came up with that.

There were parts of the law that were favored by liberals, but overall, it was awful and a set up for failure. I wish Teacher Toni was here...she'd tell you all about it "from the ground." It is unrealistic, simplistic, and its dependence upon measuring achievement on standardized tests is just dimwitted; it devolves what it means to be educated to how well you do on the tests. Which means that teachers teach to the test.

And because schools have to have all students reaching 100% proficiency in 2011--and without the funds to do so--it's a set up to fail. Schools don't get any credit for improvement, so even if they make double digit improvement on the tests, if it's not the NCLB benchmark, your school is branded as a failure.

A complete set up, and completely unfair. But there were lots of organizations favored it, thinking it would be good for education. They believed the hype from Shrub and his so-called "Texas Miracle" because no one did the research to see it was a sham.

Now...as for the Patriot Act and bankruptcy bills...I have no idea why any Dem would have voted for these. To me, there's no way they should have voted for NCLB, but after that was passed, some folks would not be fooled again. Others would go on being fooled--over and over and over again.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 09:54:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

That's the big question. I dunno. I wish he had even another week to really campaign in CA, but this is the hand that's dealt. We'll see. Good news for him, though: both the LA Times and La Opinion have endorsed him. La Opinion is the country's largest Spanish-speaking paper and they are based in LA.

(Interestingly enough, Rep. Rosa DeLauro also endorsed him, too. I honestly didn't expect that. Maybe he will win CT.)

I think he's going to do well in VA: Gov. Kaine is behind him, and I know he's got a good organization. Reps. Bobby Scott and Rick Boucher are behind him, and they represent very different parts of the states, w/ the voting records to match. He also has the backing of state Dem. Leader Ward Armstrong, who hails from Martinsville, which is in SW Va. and has faced severe job losses.

Maryland? I'm not too sure. Gov. O'Malley, Lt. Gov Anthony Brown and Sen. Milkulski are firmly for Clinton, which isn't a surprise--well, except for Brown, which I don't understand unless he's just going along to get along. OK, so maybe that's not a surprise.

Sen. Cardin is neutral. Argh. Great way to repay Obama when he and seemingly damned near everyone in the state party was begging him to rally for him for Cardin's election. (I've never been so unenthusiastic to vote for a governor and senator, since my picks, Doug Duncan and Kweisi Mfume were long since a memory by then.)

But he does have our AG, Doug Gansler and state comptroller Peter Franchot as statewide electeds supporting him, along with w/ Rep. Elijah Cummings and Baltimore Mayor Sharon Dixon. I'm sure my good-for-less-than-nothing county executive will support Obama, too, but I wouldn't want him anywhere near Obama. And my congresscritter supports Obama (he backed Edwards in "04) but that's more out of expediency than anything else. So I'll have to get to work--and work hard. (The campaign has already contacted me) But there is so much excitement for him here, and folks are just pleased that the Potomac Primary (as some in the DC area are calling it) might actually mean something this time.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:30:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I just learned my good-for-less-than-nothing county executive is endorsing Clinton. She can have him. His support is telling. Just friggin' yuck!

But hey...he's a hack and barely won re-election. Hope they didn't give him any money...they wasted it.

Let's see if they'll have a rally featuring him and KKT...

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:51:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Completely OT (none / 0)

If you see a lot of refreshes from my IP, I apologize. My kids seem to love looking at the frog and my son (who is 2) has figured out how to click it. They think refreshing the page makes the frog "jump" to a new page. My son also somehow almost saved the image to my computer this morning.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:37:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Completely OT (none / 0)

That is so cute. I love seeing the 2-yr-old sense of discovery!

Of course, I feel sorry for the parents trying to keep up with it. :)

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:49:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 1)

There's not a chance in hell she'd seriously offer Obama a spot on her ticket, or a chance in hell he'd accept, I'm certain.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:29:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

First of all, let's just forget the polls. They have proven to be not worth a damn in primaries. And momentum is just something the news bimbos make up for our entertainment.

That said, I don't see anything short of a blowout hurting Obama much. Or Clinton, for that matter. The timing seems perfect for Obama. He's on the upswing while she appears to be settling into a flatline. The delegate count after Tuesday should be neck-and-neck, not counting the supers and other unelected ones.

I think the tricky part for Obama after Tuesday will be to change his campaigning. He can't keep coasting on hope and "reaching out". He's going to have to show that he's the one to beat McCain and to bring more and better Democrats into Congress. He's been a smart campaigner so far, so odds are he'll handle the transition and keep the upward trend going. I think at this point made-up abstractions like momentum cease to matter and the effectiveness of the campaigning and the message become everything substance trumps tea-leaf reading, IOW.

Looking at your list of states, I'd be surprised if he didn't sweep on the 19th. Most of the rest, pretty much anyone's guess.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:32:54 PM EST

I think Obama has altered the campaign (none / 0)

On the night of winning South Carolina, his speech was different than his others. I've noticed from videos online that his policy speeches have been creeping into his stump speeches and people are liking what they hear. I also think this past week, the campaign has a done a great job of focusing more on the GOP instead of Clinton.

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by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:01:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I think Obama has altered the campaign (none / 0)

I agree and I'm pleased. He's drawing a distinction between being a Democrat and being a movement conservative Republican (so that non-movement conservatives will feel welcome joining in).

I thought his best line in the debate was that he didn't just want to end the war, he wanted to change the mindset that got us into the war in the first place. It set him against the Republican Party but it also set him against Hillary.

by maryb2004 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:08:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 1)

I can't figure out where the momentum is right now - meaning today (isn't it crazy that with everything compressed we have to talk about daily momentum?). It doesn't seem to have shifted strongly to Hillary after the debate but I don't know if it's still building for Obama. Maybe that's just because the national news coverage has dropped back a bit as they've left California.

I said last night that the SUSA poll for Mo looks good (although I think that is the only SUSA poll so it's hard to know trends except compared to other polls). There is a rally tonight for Obama here and to find a place big enough they finally rented the Edward Jones Dome. Which seems kind of risky to me because it is so cavernous - but could also be great. He had 6,000 in KC and they had to turn people away. But the local coverage should be good. I think Hillary is coming in too this weekend but is supposed to be out by the airport. Anyway I have hope that Mo will be very close and he could even pull it out.

Some good news for Obama from Gallup, he seems to be tightening up the gender gap:

But in recent days, the overall gap between Clinton and her only remaining serious competitor, Sen. Barack Obama, has been closing, and an analysis of the patterns of vote choice by gender shows that Obama's gains over the last 10 days have come disproportionately among women. Clinton has been losing more support from women than from men, in essence moving closer to a point where the "gender playing field" has been leveled.

Whereas there was a 13-point difference between female and male support for Clinton in the Jan. 18-20 interviewing, there is now just a 6-point gap. And whereas Obama was operating with a 10-point deficit among women compared to his support among men roughly 10 days ago, that gender gap in support for Obama is now just 3 points. In general, the patterns of support for the two candidates by gender are much closer to one another than they were just 10 days ago. Gender now appears to make less of a difference.

If this holds true, this is very good news for Obama.

by maryb2004 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:33:10 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Looking at today's Gallup tracking poll it's possible that Hillary stalled his momentum with the debate performance.

The gap between Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama remains in the single digits. In the most recent tracking period, Clinton holds a seven-point lead over Obama among Democratic primary voters nationwide, 48% vs. 41%. This is up from three- to four-point leads Clinton had the previous two days, but it is still a much closer race than a week ago when Clinton led Obama by 15 points. -- Lydia Saad

And, yes, daily polls don't really mean anything in and of themselves and trends don't show themselves overnight. And national polls are next to worthless except to show name recognition. And state polls have mostly been wrong except for the Iowa DMR poll.

by maryb2004 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I saw that Gallup piece on the gender gap as well. All I could think of is that they need Oprah right now. Maybe do her show LIVE on Monday with Barack and Michelle chatting with Oprah. They really need to pull some women away from Hillary. Only Oprah has that power.

by RandyH on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:07:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Oprah is doing a GOTV rally in California with Caroline Kennedy tomorrow. During the SuperBowl I think. They'll miss a lot of women football fans.:)

On the other hand it will be hard to get political coverage on SuperBowl Sunday after the morning shows. With Oprah they may break through that barrier and get some positive TV time.

by maryb2004 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:10:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Before the Super Bowl (none / 0)

I think kickoff is at 2:17PST and doors open at 11am. Despite the horrid traffic on that side of town, I don't think there'll be that much friction between the two events.

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by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:25:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I'm going. It's a the Pauley Pavillion at UCLA at 11:30am Sunday. It's open to the public.

Caroline Kennedy, Oprah, and Michelle Obama will all be speaking. I. Can't. Wait!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:32:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm going to be there (none / 1)

I think we'll take the whole family. I've already RSVPd and it will do us good to get to the Westside at least once this year. This will be interesting as my husband has never been to a political rally in America and only has bad memories from his life in Romania.

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by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:38:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm going to be there (none / 0)

Fabooj - I'll contact you off group with my phone number. I plan to get in line REALLY EARLY so you're welcome to show up later and get a spot. My parents and some friends may be there too. I hope to get a big group together!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:44:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Great! (none / 0)

I don't know how early I'll be though. If I tell my husband doors open at 11, he'll make sure we don't leave our house until 10:50. If I tell him doors open at 10, he'll be Mr. PissyPants for making him wait an extra hour.

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by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:39:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK, it's my turn to be jealous. (none / 0)

And I'm so jealous of both of you! Have fun, and yes, get there early so you won't have to listen to the speech from a parking garage w/ 15 of your best friends that you've never before.

:<)

Heh. But at least we got a chance to eat red velvet cake. And after such an exhausting day, every Obama supporter and/or volunteer felt like a friend.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:55:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: OK, it's my turn to be jealous. (none / 0)

Uh, that would be "never met before." Preview is my friend.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

HOPE is eternal.

I'm counting on a little forgotten fact Obama's ability to garner rural votes. Nevada showed us how handily he won the rural votes over Clinton. Take Elko County, Nevada.

And via Huffpost,

Obama Hot on Hillary's Heels in California

within 2-3 points
At Thursday's town hall meeting in Los Angeles, Mitchell Schwartz, the head of Obama's California Campaign, was jubilant. "The latest Rasmussen Poll shows us within 2-3 points," he said. "Then that's a win," I replied. "No, no," Schwartz countered, "I want us to win!" He spoke like a man who thought he could. Irrespective of our disagreement about what constitutes a victory for Obama in California, one thing is already clear: California will not be the firewall on which Hillary Clinton has always counted. Whoever leaves the state on Tuesday with the most delegates, it will be a very close outcome. Since Obama is the encroacher, he has the momentum. Just in the last twelve hours, the Los Angeles Times has endorsed Obama (for a total of 33 in-state paper endorsements), the campaign has announced a Sunday morning rally in Los Angeles with Oprah, Caroline and Michelle--need last names?--and Ted Kennedy.[]

And overnight the largest Spanish newspaper in CA La Opinion endorsed Obama

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 01:52:48 PM EST

Sunday in LA should be interesting (none / 0)

Bill Clinton is hitting two churches here. It should be interesting to see who'll be the bigger draw, Oprah or Bill. We're going to try to get to the Obama rally and I know most of my black female friends are more interested in seeing Michelle Obama than Bill Clinton.

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by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:11:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday in LA should be interesting (none / 0)

I don't know what effect that will have on the California race locally but I find the national coverage of it in the WaPo to be interesting.

Once again, Bill Clinton is ready to repent.
On Sunday the former president is scheduled to visit black churches in South Central Los Angeles, where he's expected to offer a mea culpa to those who "dearly loved him" when he was their president, Rep. Diane Watson (D-Calif.) says.

I'm not sure it does the Clinton campaign any good if people are reminded that Bill had to repent before for other things. I'm serious about that. As a campaign strategy I'm not sure this is the best way to go even though making amends with the African American community is certainly something their campaign should be doing.

by maryb2004 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:16:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday in LA should be interesting (none / 0)

Wow. That is one devastating headline. It's also a preview, I think, of where the GOP and the media will be focused if Hillary is the candidate. We'll be hearing about blue dresses instead of Iraq or health care. I feel bad for Hillary on this, but Bill has become a big-time liability and will be so throughout the general campaign. She doesn't deserve to be weighed down by him, but that's reality. I think if she's the nominee, there will be a growing revulsion at the thought of living through a replay of the ickiest First Family drama in living memory.

Bill gave us Bush. I'm afraid he could follow that by giving us McCain.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:28:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill Clinton (none / 0)

I read last night that Clinton would be in LA on Sunday. I woke this morning to 4 emails about "that 'Panderer-in-Chief' coming to my church pretending he cares about black people." One of my friends said, "Oh Lord, that man's gonna make me miss a Sunday. She's talking about going to go to her "back-up" church, which is 60 miles away.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:30:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Sunday in LA should be interesting (none / 0)

we remember.

"depends on what the meaning of Is, is."

Here's the take away: Use us like you would a kleenex. do the damage, then apologize.

this time, will he use the saxophone trick ?

Pssst Bill, there's no Arsenio Hall Show anymore.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:07:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

This reminds me of a question I shouldn't have to ask: will the dropped out candidates still be on the ballots on Tuesday? Could they still win delegates if they reached the magic number?

If so, it seems like Edwards dead-enders could be the bug in this momentum salad.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:03:59 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

They'll still be on the ballot but it's hard to see them getting the magic 15% needed to be considered viable in many districts. We really should have ballots that allow a first choice and a second choice, in case the first drops out or is found not viable. Imagine all of those absentee/advance voters who went for Edwards or Richardson within the last few weeks.

by RandyH on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:16:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My sample ballot (none / 0)

I can't find it now, but I'm almost positive it had everyone on it, including those who dropped out in Dec. I know there are some people who are voting for Edwards as a protest vote, and there are some who voted for him absentee.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 02:19:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Christmas at the Kennedys should be interesting this year.

Ethel is endorsing Obama.

Barack is so like Bobby, who struggled for the rights of the poor in the Mississippi Delta and Appalachia, traveled to California to stand in solidarity with Cesar Chavez and farm workers, and fought to end another war that cost so many lives.

by maryb2004 on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 03:21:07 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Clinton is also playing the Bobby Kennedy Jr. card that she has a Kennedy in her corner. But here is

Dick Morris on super Tuesday with an endorsement of sorts. a must read.

Obama - AND KENNEDY - RAISE THE STAKES
So now Super Tuesday is a contest between those who are mired in racial division and those who are willing to transcend it.
The Clintons were banking on a silent invocation of racial division stemming from a massive Obama win in South Carolina among black voters and a last place finish among whites. Their hopes were that whites would note the racial split in South Carolina and react by voting for Clinton.
But this racial divisiveness can only take place in the dark, out of sight. With the glare of Obama's idealism shining on the dialogue, conscience comes into play and the American electorate may overcome the divisiveness of the Clintons.
Will Obama's move trump the Clinton strategy? A lot hangs in the balance. Ultimately, the choice will say more about our soul as a nation than about the candidates in this election.
The boldness of Obama in accepting the Clintons' injection of race as an issue and his insistence on an enlightened answer challenges us all. Even as one's head warns that the strategy will fail, one's heart hopes that it will succeed.

blows me away.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:45:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Grateful Dead endorses Obama (none / 0)

Barack Obama wins coveted Grateful Dead endorsement. Seems the surviving members are holding a GOTV concert for him in San Francisco on Monday in support of his candidacy. That's pretty impressive. They haven't performed together in years.

I've never been much of a fan but they influenced Bay Area culture so much when I was growing up that it's just cool to see them come out for Barack.

by RandyH on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:04:40 PM EST

Re: Grateful Dead endorses Obama (none / 0)

Words can't even begin to describe how anguished Mr. AP is that we can't go see them. That would be the ultimate miracle. He's a complete Dead Head. Shoot, I dunno if I even typed that correctly. Just don't mention "Touch of Gray" or he'll break out in hives.

((sigh)) These are the days I wish we were rich. I'd fly out there just to see them. Oh well. They'll at least stream the event on the net.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 04:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

I put my absentee ballot for Obama in the mail today, I live in WI.

I just visited MN today. Everyone in my age group in MN (< 35) is voting for Obama.

The only person in my girlfriend's MN knitting group who isn't voting for Obama is a single 50+ female.

by shaej on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 08:18:43 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

TPM has a breakdown as of 1/31;

http://tpmelectioncentral.com/2008/01/chart_totality_of_polls_in_feb_1.php

"..the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. .. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked.." - Goering

by colinski on Sat Feb 2nd, 2008 at 11:14:43 PM EST

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Zogby has results:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1444

The race is so fluid that we're seeing massive shifts.

New Jersey, which TPM had as a "wide" lead for Clinton, is down to one point on Zogby.

Missouri was a "medium" lead for Clinton on TPM, Zogby has it at one point.

California; TPM cites a recent 3-point lead for Clinton, Zogby has it as a 4-point lead for Obama.

"..the people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. .. All you have to do is tell them they are being attacked.." - Goering

by colinski on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 04:07:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? (none / 0)

Massive shifts, and all in the same direction...

I think Tuesday will be fine. Obama will do well - not enough to mortally wound Clinton, but as long as the momentum stays in Obama's direction, the writing is on the wall...

by ericy on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:26:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Does Obama Have Enough Time/Momentum? | 53 comments (53 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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