Booman Tribune

To Undecided Super Tuesday Voters

by BooMan
Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:21:39 AM EST

So you are undecided between Clinton and Obama and you have to make a decision before you go to the polls on February 5th. How are you going to make a decision? I will provide you ten reasons to choose Barack Obama.

10. Electability- Just this morning the San Francisco Chronicle reports on the differences in who supports each of the two candidates in California and how they match-up against a hypothetical McCain campaign. First, let's look at the McCain match-up.

Clinton now clings to a bare 45 to 43 percent lead over McCain in a projected California presidential vote, down dramatically from her 17 percentage point margin just two weeks ago. Obama now holds a stronger 47 to 40 percent margin over the Arizona senator, but that's only half the 14 percentage point advantage he had in mid-January.

If Clinton can't break out of the margin of error in a contest with John McCain in California there are some serious electability problems for her campaign. A look inside the internals explains the problem:

While Clinton has a 37 to 31 percent lead over Obama among Democrats, Obama leads by an overwhelming 54 to 32 percent among nonpartisans, who will make up an estimated 13 percent of the primary voters.

As former deputy assistant to President Bush, Peter Wehner, explains in this morning's Washington Post, even Republicans have a soft spot for Barack Obama.

A number of prominent Republicans I know, who would wage a pitched battle against Hillary Clinton, like Obama and would find it hard to generate much enthusiasm in opposing him.

All things considered, Barack Obama appears to be the more electable of the two candidates.

9. The Youth Vote- We all know that children are our future, and young voters are the future of the Democratic Party. According to the San Francisco Chronicle article, "[w]hile people aged 18 to 29 [in California] back Obama by a margin of 11 percentage points, voters 65 and older support Clinton, 40 to 18 percent." This is a reflection of the other early primary and caucus contests: In Iowa, Obama won the youth vote 57%-11%, in New Hampshire he won 18-24 year-olds 60%-22%, in Nevada 59%-33%, and in South Carolina 67%-23%.

According to Youth Voter PAC, which has been tracking youth voter turnout, there has been a notable uptick in participation. For example:

Young people continued the trend of increased turnout and preference for Democrats in the South Carolina Primary. Young people almost tripled their turnout numbers from 2004 and almost doubled the turnout numbers of young Republicans...

...Young people were 9% of the overall Democratic primary vote in 2004 and increased that to 14% in 2008.

Young Democrats continue to outnumber young Republicans at the polls continuing a trend in every state since Iowa.

While the Clinton campaign is causing its own excitement, it's clear that Obama's campaign is the driving force behind this unprecedented swell in youth turnout, and that could translate into enormous coattails for down ticket races for governors, senators, and congresspeople.

8. Change (Part One)

The last time we had a presidential election without a Bush or Clinton on the ballot was 1976. The last time we had an administration in office that didn't include a Bush or a Clinton was January of 1981. There is something fundamentally wrong with a system where two families trade power back and forth over a period of 36 years (that's how long it would be if Clinton serves two terms). Perhaps this isn't the best idea. Perhaps it would be good to give someone else a chance.

7. Change (Part Two)

The Clinton administration was very successful on many levels, but we all remember the scandals (both real and imagined). Do you want to refight those battles? Do you even want to hear them discussed? Or would you like to begin fresh with new start?

6. Position/Ideology within the party

The Clintons are philosophically aligned with the Democratic Leadership Council and Hillary chairs the DLC's American Dream Initiative. The DLC is represented in Congress by the New Democrat Caucus (of which, Hillary is not currently a member). Take a look at the membership of the New Democrat Caucus and ask yourself if they are your kind of Democrats. If you are frustrated about how the Democrats have voted on the war, on bankruptcy protection, on illegal combatants, take a look at the voting record of New Democrats and compare that record to the Progressive Caucus, or the Democratic caucus as a whole.

Many political insiders suspect that the Clintons, if they win the nomination, will replace Howard Dean as president of the Democratic National Committee with the president of the Democratic Leadership Council, Harold Ford, Jr. Is Harold Ford. Jr. your kind of Democrat?

Barack Obama is not a member of the DLC, nor has he ever been closely aligned with them. His background as a community organizer in Chicago strongly suggests that his natural affinity lies more with the Progressive Caucus (mostly made up of urban pols) than with the DLC. His surrogates do not have an adversarial relationship with Howard Dean.

5. The Kyl-Lieberman Amendment

On September 26, 2007, the Senate passed the Kyl-Lieberman amendment that provided a legal framework for the Bush-Cheney administration to expand the war into Iran. Clinton voted for it. Obama did not leave the campaign trail and return to Washington to vote (something he regrets, although the vote was 76-22 so it hardly mattered), but he did voice his strong objection at the time.

4. His positive campaign

While Clinton surrogates (and campaign director) have talked about Obama's past drug-use, raised (falsely) that he might have been a drug dealer, falsely claimed that he attended a Madrassa, called him (in coded language) an Uncle Tom, and tried to tie him to divisive black leaders like Jesse Jackson, the Obama campaign has never raised the Clintons' checkered past as a reason to vote against them. Do you want to reward this kind of negative campaigning?

3. The Authorization to Use Military Force in Iraq

Hillary Clinton not only voted for the AUMF-Iraq in 2002, she voted against the Levin Amendment. Former senator Lincoln Chafee explains the significance of the Levin amendment:

Senator Levin’s amendment called for United Nations approval before force could be authorized. It was unambiguous and compatible with international law. Acutely cognizant of the dangers of the time, and the reality that diplomatic options could at some point be exhausted, Senator Levin wrote an amendment that was nimble: it affirmed that Congress would stand at the ready to reconsider the use of force if, in the judgment of the president, a United Nations resolution was not “promptly adopted” or enforced. Ceding no rights or sovereignty to an international body, the amendment explicitly avowed America’s right to defend itself if threatened...

Those of us who supported the Levin amendment argued against a rush to war. We asserted that the Iraqi regime, though undeniably heinous, did not constitute an imminent threat to United States security, and that our campaign to renew weapons inspections in Iraq — whether by force or diplomacy — would succeed only if we enlisted a broad coalition that included Arab states.

We went through an election in 2004 where our candidate could not convincingly explain his vote to authorize force in Iraq. Do we want to repeat that experience, or do we want to try a candidate like Barack Obama, who opposed the war from the beginning?

2. Judgment

Obama was right on the war, he was right on the Kyl-Lieberman amendment, and Hillary Clinton sided with Dick Cheney and George W. Bush on both of those votes. Who has the better judgment?

1. Inspiration

Ethel, Teddy, and Caroline Kennedy all recognize in Barack Obama some of the intangible leadership qualities that they saw in John and Robert Kennedy when they were alive. Obama is packing stadiums with adoring fans, inspiring young people, wooing independents, and disarming conservatives. And he is doing it with an uplifting message that is critical of Republicans leadership without coming across as harsh or alienating. If anyone can help us move forward with a little more unity as a nation, it is not Hillary Clinton, but Barack Obama.

For these 10 reasons, I implore you to choose Barack Obama over Hillary Clinton on Tuesday.



Display:
Many people i talk to are worried that Obama won't be able to handle the onslaught of the rethugs in the general ... this is a ridiculous reason to vote for Hillary. Obama has the potential to inspire the left and center while marginalizing the demoralized right ... especially if mccain is the nominee.
We know what the race will look like if Hillary is the nominee, we've all been down that road.
Vote for Obama now, if it doesn't work out, you can vote for Hillary later!!!!!!!!!!!!!
by wealthybutnotrich on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:36:30 AM EST
He won't allow himself to be swiftboated. Bank on it.

No Kerry this.

I read one UK paper doing a long reach, attempting to connect Obama to Saddam...via Rezko who has some connection to a millionaire resident UK Iraqi.

Gawd.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:58:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I am actually starting to feel a sense of optimism about this race.  Last night we watched a video of the Obama speech in Denver, and it was electrifying.

We don't vote until the 12th though.

by ericy on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:37:29 AM EST
I'll be forwarding this to my friends in Super-Tuesday states.

John Mccain Called his wife WHAT??
by brendan on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:43:09 AM EST
also this:

Don't screw up, Democrats, Barack Obama is your man

There comes a point in all primary campaigns when the ideological furore dies down a little, when the personality clashes recede, when the warring factions pause and the voters in each party ask themselves a simple question: who on earth can win this thing in November?

[.]

If she [Clinton] becomes the nominee, it will be because she survived the primaries. Obama won them.

The national polling keeps getting tighter. In every state where Obama has had a chance to be exposed to voters in real time, he has won. But the states up for grabs on Tuesday are big ones where retail salesmanship and organisation are not as powerful as name recognition. Obama has the money - in fact, he raised a staggering $32m in January alone, mostly in small sums from individual donations. He has the momentum: Gallup's national poll shows Clinton's lead evaporating in the past two weeks.

Will Democratic voters realise that he is now their best bet against McCain or will inertia and fear keep Clinton alive? One thing I've learnt in American politics: never underestimate the capacity of the Democratic party to screw it up.

Andrew Sullivan, author of the book "The Conservative Soul"  writes for The Atlantic Nonthly. Also, he lives in America and has his blog, The Daily Dish

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:09:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Great job, BooMan!!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes
by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:44:09 AM EST
I got my parents to change from Hillary to Obama, so this Tuesday there'll be 4 of us caucusing for Obama in Colorado!!
by Tehanu on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:48:16 AM EST
lest we forget, Dick Morris shows his heart with an important reminder:

A NO TO CLINTON'S SLIME

It's about time.

[.]For more than 30 years, no one has been able to stop Bill and Hillary Clinton from routinely acting on their shared base instinct to annihilate anyone who gets in their way, in whatever way it takes, however long it takes, whatever it costs - and then to enjoy watching their targets suffer.[.]

After successfully employing their slash-and-burn tactics for years, they've come to truly believe that their reprehensible politics are justified, even necessary.

Remember Hillary's glee when she announced that the "fun part" of the campaign was about to begin - her attacks on her fellow Democrats? She was serious.

In Washington, Arkansas and recently in South Carolina, the Clintons have used whatever slimy tactics they felt they needed - ruining reputations, invading the privacy of their targets by dispatching private detectives to comb their records, lying about their opponents, blackmailing and threatening women who dared to say "yes" (or even "no") to Bill.

Remember how the Clintonites released Linda Tripp's confidential employment files to Jane Mayer of The New Yorker after Clinton hit man Harold Ickes met with Tripp's boss? Years later, the Defense Department settled a lawsuit with Tripp for over $600,000 for invading her privacy.

Then there were the stories branding Monica Lewinsky as a "stalker" trying to hurt the president[.]

RAISE THE STAKES

So now Super Tuesday is a contest between those who are mired in racial division and those who are willing to transcend it.

The Clintons were banking on a silent invocation of racial division stemming from a massive Obama win in South Carolina among black voters and a last place finish among whites. Their hopes were that whites would note the racial split in South Carolina and react by voting for Clinton.

But this racial divisiveness can only take place in the dark, out of sight. With the glare of Obama's idealism shining on the dialogue, conscience comes into play and the American electorate may overcome the divisiveness of the Clintons.

Will Obama's move trump the Clinton strategy? A lot hangs in the balance. Ultimately, the choice will say more about our soul as a nation than about the candidates in this election.

Either way, Obama has made the Super Tuesday vote more about who we are than who the candidates running for president are.

(emphasis added)



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:53:43 AM EST
A very sound set of arguments, which I will share with my undecided friends (my vote for Obama is already cast. I'm runnning a polling place on Tuesday, so I voted early). While I don't consider Obama my ideal, I do think he is the best option left for the country.
by pygalgia (pygalgia@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:59:13 AM EST
An Endorsement of the Movement Barack Obama Leads

By Tom Hayden

With the California primary ten days away, it's time to decide. And for me, it's not been  easy.

My paramount concern is to prevent a Republican victory in November. Even though it seems to be a Democratic year. no one can say which Democratic can defeat. say. John McCain, the full-throated advocate of "winning" the Iraq war.  At stake are many issues beyond Iraq, not least the appointment of the next generation of federal judges.

I will vote without hesitation for the Democratic nominee, if only to stop to the neo-conservative usurpation of power which began in Florida in 2000.

One must choose a candidate based on the issues for which they stand, the spirit they invoke, and the people they are able to mobilize.

As for issues, the differences between Obama and Clinton on Iraq are difficult to pin down. Obama was against the Iraq war five years ago, and favors a more rapid pullout of combat troops than Clinton. But both would replace combat troops with an American counterinsurgency force of tens of thousands, potentially turning Iraq into Central America in the 1970s. Obama seems more supportive of diplomacy than Clinton, but he supports military intervention in Pakistan's tribal areas. Edwards favors a more rapid pullout from Iraq, but is unlikely to prevail.

On Iraq, the anti-war movement has helped turn a public majority against the war, a historic achievement. But the movement alone lacks much capacity to forge anything beyond the slogan of "bring the troops home." Our most achievable goal is a strong voter mandate for peace in November, the election of more Congressional Democrats, and spreading public awareness of the dangers of  counterinsurgency.  The election of a Democratic president is a necessary condition for ending the war, but sadly not a sufficient one.

So the choice remains.

I do not like the Hillary haters in our midst. As president, her court appointees alone would represent a relief from the present rigging of the courts and marginal improvements for working people. On Iraq, I believe she could be pushed to withdraw. She is a centrist, and it will be up to social movements to alter the center.

Nor do I like the role being played by President Bill Clinton, who is telling lies about Iraq and Obama that are unbecoming a former president.

Neither do I  agree with Gloria Steinem's divisive claim that the gender barrier is greater than the racial one. Who wants to measure slavery against the Inquisition? In the case at hand, who among us would argue that the barriers against Hillary Clinton are greater than those facing Barack Obama?  What is compelling is that most black women support Obama.  

I respect John Edwards' campaign and the role he has played in driving the Democratic Party towards a progressive agenda. At this point, however, I cannot foresee a primary he will win.

That leaves Barack Obama. I have been devastated by too many tragedies and betrayals over the past 40 years to ever again deposit so much hope in any single individual, no matter how charismatic or brilliant. But today I see across the generational divide the spirit, excitement, energy and creativity of a new generation bidding to displace the old ways. Obama's moment is their moment, and I pray that they succeed without the sufferings and betrayals my generation went through. There really is no comparison between the Obama generation and those who would come to power with Hillary Clinton, and I suspect she knows it. The people she would take into her administration may have been reformers and idealists in their youth, but they seem to seek now a return to their establishment positions of power. They are the sorts of people young Hillary Clinton herself would have scorned at Wellesley. If history is any guide, the new "best and brightest" of the Obama generation will unleash a new cycle of activism, reform and fresh thinking before they follow pragmatism to its dead end.  

Many ordinary Americans will take a transformative step down the long road to the Rainbow Covenant if Obama wins. For at least a brief moment, people around the world - from the shantytowns to the sweatshops, even to the restless rich of the Sixties generation - will look up from the treadmills of their shrunken lives to the possibilities of what life still might be. Environmental justice and global economic hope would dawn as possibilities.

Is Barack the one we have been waiting for? Or is it the other way around? Are we the people we have been waiting for? Barack Obama is giving voice and space to an awakening beyond his wildest expectations, a social force that may lead him far beyond his modest policy agend. Such movements in the past led the Kennedys and Franklin Roosevelt to achievements they never contemplated. [As Gandhi once said of India's liberation movement, "There go my people. I must follow them, for I am their leader."]

We are in a precious moment where caution must yield to courage. It is better to fail at the quest for greatness than to accept our planet's future as only a reliving of the past.

So I endorse the movement that Barack Obama has inspired and will support his candidacy in the inevitable storms ahead.

by BooMan on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:02:50 PM EST
Thanks BooMan.  But I still don't like either of them.

Oh, there you are, Perry. -Phineas -SLB-
by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:20:44 PM EST
what if the Obama campaign were to send you a toy pony?
by BooMan on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:21:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Then I would vote for the O man for sure.

Oh, there you are, Perry. -Phineas -SLB-
by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:28:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Make it a real pony and we'll think about it.

Although I'd settle for universal health care, universal education, a withdrawal from Iraq, a jobs program, egg in my beer and my money back.

I for one welcome our new Twitter overlords. @Omir55

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:29:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
boran2, Whether you like them or not, they're all that's on offer at this point.
by Quentin on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:38:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
by S2 on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:06:28 PM EST
Good breakdown of the issues.  

What pushed me over to Obama finally a few weeks ago was a combination of foreign policy and his amazing talent that we can hopefully tap for the benefit of our country.  I truly hope he can be a transformative president in the best sense of the word.

But here I'll only talk substance.  I have been disappointed in Obama's lack of leadership on the war while in the Senate.  But I have greater concerns about Hillary. My foreign policy concerns are a combination of your reasons #2 and #3 plus something else.  I started thinking about the team of foreign policy advisors that each is relying on. I read about them in an Ari Berman analysis in The Nation that was published about the time of the Iowa caucuses.  

I agree with a lot of what Chris Hayes said about Obama in his endorsement, but this is the part that puts me firmly in the Obama camp:

But while domestic policy will ultimately be determined through a complicated and fraught interplay with legislators, foreign policy is where the President's agenda is implemented more or less unfettered. It's here where distinctions in worldview matter most--and where Obama compares most favorably to Clinton. The war is the most obvious and powerful distinction between the two: Hillary Clinton voted for and supported the most disastrous American foreign policy decision since Vietnam, and Barack Obama (at a time when it was deeply courageous to do so) spoke out against it. In this campaign, their proposals are relatively similar, but in rhetoric and posture Clinton has played hawk to Obama's dove, attacking from the right on everything from the use of first-strike nuclear weapons to negotiating with Iran's president. Her hawkishness relative to Obama's is mirrored in her circle of advisers. As my colleague Ari Berman has reported in these pages, it's a circle dominated by people who believed and believe that waging pre-emptive war on Iraq was the right thing to do. Obama's circle is made up overwhelmingly of people who thought the Iraq War was a mistake.

I'm voting for Obama on Tuesday.

by maryb2004 on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:12:17 PM EST
A few very good videos (many cute ones, too) can be seen HERE.
by Gene on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 02:04:22 PM EST
Although my absentee ballot for the CA primary has already been mailed and marked for Obama. It was not an easy decision to vote for him.

I am absolutely certain (cynically so I suppose) that Obama will shaft the very groups that would have been instrumental in his success. The youth, individual donors, progressives, African-Americans and netroots.

In comparison between Hillary & Barack I am convinced that Hillary will govern with more progressive policies than Barack and achieve more towards universal health care, energy independence and fiscal prudence. She will also push back hard against the right wing attack machine knowing they will be out in force to get her. Barack, IMO, after he gets elected will be convinced that his "post-partisan" message is what caused his success. We all know what that means - embracing conservative positions and pleasing the village elders. Every time the Dems have talked about being bi-partisan they caved into right wing frames. Note, that the village and their media are big supporters of Barack!

So why did I vote for Barack? The thought of Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton-Bush was too unbearable. Having said that I know I will likely regret my vote as Barack becomes a village shill.

It will be interesting to see how the netroots deals with that????

by ab initio on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 03:17:17 PM EST
...I know I will likely regret my vote as Barack becomes a village shill.

It's more likely that you'll regret having to eating crow, but take it from me - I've had to eat plenty - it tastes like chicken with a little hot sauce...

The Underground Railroad
by Oscar In Louisville on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:22:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
chris hayes has an excellent essay re: "why obama?"

a few snippets:

The Choice

...According to polling data as well as my conversations with friends and colleagues, progressives are evenly split or undecided between the two. This is, to me, somewhat astonishing (about which more in a moment), but it also means that at a time when other subgroups within the Democratic coalition are leaning heavily toward one candidate or the other, progressives are at a moment of maximum leverage.
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The question then becomes this: which of the two Democratic candidates is more likely to bring to fruition a new progressive majority? I believe, passionately and deeply, if occasionally waveringly, that it's Barack Obama.
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...A President cannot build a movement, but he can be its messenger, as was Reagan. Part of what tantalizes and frustrates about Obama is that he seems to have the potential to be such a messenger and yet shies away from speaking in ideological terms. When he invokes union organizers facing Pinkerton thugs to give us our forty-hour week, or says we are bound to one another as "our brother's keeper...our sister's keeper," he is articulating the deepest progressive values: solidarity and community and collective action. But he places more rhetorical emphasis on a politics of "unity" that, read uncharitably, seems to fetishize bipartisanship as an end in itself and reinforce lame and deceptive myths that the parties are equally responsible for the "bickering" and "divisiveness" in Washington. It appears sometimes that his diagnosis of what's wrong with politics is the way it is conducted rather than for whom.
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Whoever is elected in November, progressives will probably find themselves feeling frustrated. Ultimately though, the future judgments and actions of the candidates are unknowable, obscured behind time's cloak. Who knew that the Bill Clinton of 1992 who campaigned with Nelson Mandela would later threaten to sanction South Africa when it passed a law allowing the production of low-cost generic AIDS drugs for its suffering population--or that the George W. Bush of 2000, an amiable "centrist" whose thin foreign-policy views shaded toward isolationism, would go on to become a self-justifying, delusional and messianic instrument of global war? In this sense, Bill Clinton is right: voting for and electing Barack Obama is a "roll of a dice." All elections are. But the candidacy of Barack Obama represents by far the left's best chance to, in Buchanan's immortal phrasing, take back the bigger half of the country. It's a chance we can't pass up.

the nation

recommended reading

off to enjoy the afternoon and some football.

no pick...l just want to see a good game, not another super blow-out.

later

lTMF'sA

the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 04:18:56 PM EST
Another big endorsement, Maria Shriver shows up this morning and endorses Obama.

by mainsailset on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 06:24:37 PM EST


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