Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

Obama Still Surging

by BooMan
Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 09:06:53 AM EST

Three polls from Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby this morning have to have the Clinton Team pulling out their hair:

Missouri Democrats
1-31/2-2
Clinton 44%
Obama 43%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 13%
Sample: 877 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points
California Democrats
1-31/2-2
Clinton 41%
Obama 45%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 15%
Sample: 1,141 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 2.9 percentage points
New Jersey Democrats
1-31/2-2
Clinton 43%
Obama 42%
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 14%
Sample: 868 likely voters
Margin of error: +/- 3.4 percentage points

Here are some interesting internals from the California poll:

Obama's lead in California is by virtue of solid support in the Bay Area and among Independents (by 20 points), men (20 points), 18-29 year olds (31 points), very liberal voters (22 points), and African Americans (75%-14%). Clinton does well among women (11 points) and among Hispanics (64%-29%).

If Obama wins California, he's going to lay claim to the big prize and he could come away with more delegates on Tuesday.

Obama Still Surging | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

Holy crap, those are close numbers. I can't afford this kind of stress. I hope those undecideds break for Obama.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 09:57:26 AM EST

That is a sizable number of independents (none / 0)

They could:
1 stay home
2 write in somebody
3 break evenly
4 break for one or the other
5 all of the above!

Grandma Jo

by glitterscale (glitteryscale@yahoo.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:46:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

Oh sweet, holy parrot! I've this feeling.

Tsunami builds

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:16:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

Wonderful news for Democrats.

by shergald on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:05:30 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

If the primaries were on the 12th instead of the 5th, I think he would blow this out of the water. I can't recall ever seeing someone gain so much traction so fast.

by Birdie on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:07:08 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

"Reliable Sources" on CNN today is talking about Obama and the Kennedy endorsements and the comparisons to Camelot.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:07:30 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

but there's a deep Kennedy-Obama connection

TPM provides the link

JFK Is The Reason I Stand Here Today
By Greg Sargent - January 28, 2008, 1:54PM

I barely knew him, but when, after his death, I finally took my first trip to his tiny village in Kenya and asked my grandmother if there was anything left from him, she opened a trunk and took out a stack of letters, which she handed to me.
There were more than thirty of them, all handwritten by my father, all addressed to colleges and universities across America, all filled with the hope of a young man who dreamed of more for his life. And his prayer was answered when he was brought over to study in this country.
But what I learned much later is that part of what made it possible for him to come here was an effort by the young Senator from Massachusetts at the time, John F. Kennedy, and by a grant from the Kennedy Foundation to help Kenyan students pay for travel. So it is partly because of their generosity that my father came to this country, and because he did, I stand before you today - inspired by America's past, filled with hope for America's future, and determined to do my part in writing our next great chapter.

Ethel Kennedy has joined in endorsing Obama.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:22:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Truman about Senator Kennedy - July 2, 1960 (none / 0)

Shades of 1960

"I have always liked him personally and I still do," Truman said of John Fitzgerald Kennedy, then a second-term senator from Massachusetts, "and because of this feeling, I would want to say to him at this time: Senator, are you certain that you are quite ready for the country, or that the country is ready for you in the role of president in January 1961. I have no doubt about the political heights to which you are destined to rise. But I am deeply concerned and troubled about the situation we are up against in the world now and in the immediate future. That is why I would hope that someone with the greatest possible maturity and experience would be available at this time. May I urge you to be patient?"

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:53:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

Man, one little push could do it.

Edwards? Edwards?
Gore? Gore?
Bueller? Bueller?

by RollaMO on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:08:04 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

He could win the overall popular vote in California, and if he does, then it will give him an extra boost of momentum.

But at the end of the day the delegate allocation is really the more interesting number.

by ericy on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:08:18 AM EST

Right On! (none / 0)

CA Delegates Awarded by Districts
In most states, the most of the delegates are awarded by Congressional District where the two slates compete and the one with the most votes wins all the delegates from that district. Even if Obama were to carry California by, say 53-47, he might win the black districts by 80-20 and lose most or all of the white districts, giving Hillary the vast bulk of the delegates. Obama would have to get his margin of victory up to 8-10 points to be sure of sweeping the delegates in a given state.

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right On! (none / 0)

The link you posted says something different though:

In Democratic races, most congressional districts select between four and six delegates. The exact number will be determined by Democratic performance in the 2004 presidential election and recent state elections, with more delegates awarded to heavily Democratic areas.
In a race with two strong contenders such as Obama and Clinton, analysts said, the candidates are likely to split the delegates evenly unless one wins by a significant margin.
Devine said that because "you have to win a district by an enormous margin" to gain the extra delegate in a six- or four-delegate district, candidates may spend less time and money there unless they think there is a chance for a blowout win.
Congressional districts with an odd number of delegates are a different story. In those districts, winning by just one vote translates into an extra delegate. In Massachusetts, three congressional districts - the Fourth, Fifth, and Tenth - have an odd number of delegates.

I didn't see anything at this link which suggests that within a district it is a winner-take-all.

by ericy on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:33:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

CA Democratic Delegates (none / 0)

.
You are so right on again!

How a Democrat Becomes a Delegate in California in 2008

The Democratic National Convention will be held August 25-28, 2008 in Denver, Colorado (Pepsi Center). At present, there are 4,367 delegate slots nationally (this number will change). Each state must have a Delegation which is 50% female, 50% male or within one, and must have a Delegate Selection Plan that includes Affirmative Action Goals (quotas are prohibited).

California Democrats will have:

441 Delegates (221 females, 220 males)

62 Alternates (31 females, 31 males)

503 TOTAL (252 females, 251 males)

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 01:16:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Right On! (none / 1)

Obama's campaign on the ground-door to door, just watch out. More than 75,000 volunteers, (mostly law students from Harvard and Chicago) moving state to state, just add these to the local volunteers. They're runners, and on election day are assigned as voter protectors, monitors.

Community organizer experience well honed.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:30:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

Feeling good today, are we?

What's your prediction for the superbowl?

by rae on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:12:28 AM EST

What about the south? (none / 0)

We Democrats are always worried about electing someone who could win the south. Obama is beating Clinton big time in GA(ignoring that rather large group of undecides):
Democrats

1-31/2-2

Clinton 28%

Obama 48%

Gravel 1%

Undecided/someone else 23%

If Obama can cary some southern states, wouldn't it help him with the "electability" factor?

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:23:11 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

Missouri Democrats
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 13%

14% do not like either Clinton or Obama

California Democrats
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 15%

16% do not like Clinton and Obama

New Jersey Democrats
Gravel 1%
Undecided/someone else 14%

15% do not like either Clinton or Obama

Sounds like a lot of potential new Greens, Libertarians and Nader Independents.

Ralph Nader for President in 2008

Obama and Clinton are both such panderers to the Jim Crow right-wing of America that they are driving people out of the Democratic Party in the same way that they have been driving liberals and the left out of the Party since the days of Bubba Bill.

by aahpat on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:32:17 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

I don't see how Hillary can win the nomination if she loses California and New Jersey, the latter to sting all the more because she really needs to win the entire tri-state area. And now Connecticut is too close to call.

Not looking good for Team Clinton.

"If Adolph Hitler flew in today, they'd send a limousine anyway" -- Joe Strummer

by urizon (cognitivediss@gmail.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 10:51:07 AM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

and New York is at risk for a split. Just a hunch he'll take the 5 boroughs, otherwise called New York City.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 11:32:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 0)

McClatchy has Hillary up nine, 45 to 36.

And I don't agree that California wins Obama the nomination. If the rest of the numbers for the other states hold up, Hillary still wins a majority of states, and this thing just very contentious and lasts for a while.

by liberaljournal on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:17:20 PM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

I think the truth of the matter is that nobody knows. We've seen polls pointing to Clinton winning and polls pointing to Obama winning, but the overall trend seems to be Obama having momentum. There are a lot of wild cards to consider, though. What role will early voting -- the dumbest idea I can imagine, by the way -- play? Did they go strongly enough, and in sufficient numbers, to hand it to Clinton in Cal? Have the polls we're seeing there taken account of the early voters already? (Anybody have an idea on that?) It'll be interesting.

Part of me thinks Clinton has it wrapped up for Tuesday, winning the big states she needs to win. But another part of me thinks of the trends, and it feels a bit like Kerry and Dean in Iowa, except that the movement candidate is the one surging here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:46:51 PM EST

Re: Obama Still Surging (none / 1)

My sister must have been part of the Reuters/CNN/Zogby poll for Missouri done yesterday because she said the pollster asked about Clinton, Obama and Gravel ... and she told them she had never heard of Gravel.

Very close numbers but a lot of undecideds. My general feel is undecideds in MO break for Obama because Hillary is so well known but ... the undecideds include women and they may choose to go with Hillary. Right now there is a chance of bad weather on Tuesday. I have no idea who that favors. And the weather people are less reliable than pollsters. :)

I can't wait for Tuesday to see what happens.

by maryb2004 on Sun Feb 3rd, 2008 at 12:54:59 PM EST

Obama Still Surging | 22 comments (22 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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