Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

It's Looking Great for Obama

by BooMan
Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 08:58:36 AM EST

I'll confess that I had a bout of irrational exuberance just prior to the New Hampshire primary when the polls showed Barack Obama with a healthy lead. I was stunned when Clinton pulled out a narrow victory there. But it is hard not to get a little excited about Obama's prospects for Super Tuesday. A week ago I privately thought that Obama would go into tomorrow's contests slightly behind nearly everywhere, and further disadvantaged by a huge early-voting deficit. I figured he had a chance to break even only if late deciders broke really, really, heavily in his direction. I had no hope that he might score a knockout win. What a difference a week makes!

Obama still has to overcome an early voter deficit, but he's now in position to win both the media narrative and the delegate wars. The latest polls show that Obama has completely eliminated Clinton's lead in the national polls. In California, Obama is now fractionally ahead in the Suffolk Poll (.pdf) and ahead by six points in the Reuters/CSPAN/Zogby Poll. Zogby also has Obama up in Georgia (+17), Missouri (+5), and tied in New Jersey (Quinnipiac has Hillary up 48%-43% in the Garden State).

It can't hurt that the First Lady of California gave a surprise endorsement to Obama yesterday. Obama's momentum is overwhelming at this point, and he is poised to win the undecided vote nearly everywhere. And then there are signs like this from the Los Angeles Times:

A record number of new voters -- almost 151,000 -- registered as Democrats in the final 45 days of eligibility for Tuesday's election, party officials say.

That's the Obama factor. And it could change the political landscape for a long time. For the first time since Clinton won New Hampshire, I feel like Obama is going to be the nominee.

He could even win a psychological knockout if he carries enough states. However, no matter what happens tomorrow, the delegates will be split fairly evenly. No one is going to get mathematically eliminated. So this thing could still go to the convention.

It's Looking Great for Obama | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (4.00 / 2)

just like the underdog giants he will win!!!!!!!!!

by wealthybutnotrich on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 09:29:26 AM EST

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (4.00 / 2)

It already has changed the political landscape. Obama is bringing hundreds-of-thousands of new voters to the polls. These new voters will (hopefully) stay involved and have an impact on states, counties and towns all across the country.

The fact is about half the country's eligible voters don't bother. If Obama -- or anyone else, for that matter -- can inspire these folks to get out to the polls, he or she would win the White House by a substantial margin.

What has me convinced of this is the fact that, as other candidates have said, "we're going to harness the power of the internet," Obama has actually done so. It's one thing to raise a bunch of money online, quite another to produce (potentially) millions of inspired new voters.

A few weeks ago there was a picture in the NYT in which Obama was noodling with his PDA in between campaign stops. This photo struck me as unusual because I don't think we've ever seen a presidential candidate online in any kind of a non-photo-op-type setting. This is a man, who, like all of us, gets up every day and thinks "I need to check my email."

Obama is one of us, even if he's done little to demonstrate it. I expect this to change if he wins.

"If Adolph Hitler flew in today, they'd send a limousine anyway" -- Joe Strummer

by urizon (cognitivediss@gmail.com) on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 10:36:58 AM EST

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (none / 0)

In NH, it was the Clinton sleaze, including the "it's-so-hard-tears-gender-card." In NV, the sleaze was also in play with Bill physically disrupting caucuses, and the attempt to voter suppress.

Never the less, recent polls leave me nervous. Should Obama prevail, don't think I'll survive these next nine months, to the day. My cousin is fund raising for him in GA and NYC.

Just hope the advance ballots, likely Clinton, is not the determinant against an Obama win in CA. Also, that deadly Bradley effect - those who poll for Obama and pull the lever for Clinton.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 09:33:24 AM EST

Obama rally in Boston tonight.. (none / 1)

Ted Kennedy, John Kerry and Deval Patrick will be joining Barack Obama for a rally at the World Trade Center in Boston tonight. (200 Seaport Blvd.) Doors open: 8:00 pm.
Let's keep the momentum going!!!

by eddeevy (eddeevy@cs.com) on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 09:34:27 AM EST

Re: Obama rally in Boston tonight.. (4.00 / 2)

JANET NAPOLITANO , KATHLEEN SEBELIUS and CLAIRE MCCASKILL explain their Obamamania in the Wall Street Journal.

by BooMan on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 09:44:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (none / 0)

wasnt there a diary somewhere that showed by how many points the pollsters have been off when it comes to obama?

now if they are saying he is even with clinton it seems if they are still 12 points off on their polling he could easily be ahead.

isnt it amazing people pay a ton of money for those polls....and for pundits to interpret the polls....its all bullshit.....how do i get paid for bullshit?

by anna in philly (flymetothemoon@yahoo.com) on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 09:51:20 AM EST

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (none / 0)

I think the turnout has been so much higher (and from groups that aren't usually big voters) that it renders the polls much more inaccurate.

"Little people are very stuff-intensive."

by CabinGirl on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 09:57:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (none / 0)

Now you've done it ...

by maryb2004 on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 10:32:24 AM EST

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (none / 0)

"Grateful Dead Reunite Monday for Obama
The battle to capture California's gray-haired ponytail vote may be over: The Grateful Dead -- Jerry, RIP -- is endorsing Barack Obama.
Not only that, the boys are reuniting for a one-off show Monday at the Warfield Theatre in San Francisco for a GOTV rally. GOTV in this case means Get Outta The Van, the cops are coming.

San Francisco Chronicle

One way or the other, this darkness has to give....

by Denim Blue on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 11:43:48 AM EST

Re: It's Looking Great for Obama (none / 0)

LOL! "GOTV." Gotta send that to my Dead Head Hubby...!

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Mon Feb 4th, 2008 at 11:57:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It's Looking Great for Obama | 10 comments (10 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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