McCain was low on cash too.  It's an advantage for Obama, sure, but not a decisive one.  Clinton's likelihood of cleaning up in Texas, Ohio, and Pennsylvania -- the latter two being machine politics states tailor-made for her -- and more important.

I still give Clinton a slight, slight edge based on what I expect will be superior superdelegate strongarming skills at the convention.  But Obama's big advantage is that he -- unlike Hillary -- grows on people the more time he spends with them.  We'll see how much that is true.  If he wins the nomination, it will be because he earned it by making his way into voters' hearts, and that is about the best way one can win.  I'm rooting (and working) for it to happen, but I still think that a tie coming into the convention goes to Clinton -- and we keep moving towards a tie.

Obama-Gore 2008. Broker that!

Just sent Obama some more scratch.  Just felt like it.

Er...except the gardening ones. Oh and definitely anything that cuts wood or metal.  

Seriously though...If she can't raise $3M in 3 days, will that mean she has to loan it to herself again?  Is there a fundraising cutoff coming up that us peons aren't aware of?

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

couple of questions: Her burn rate? the $104 millions raised in 2007, all gone!

is the $5 million self-loan part of the $13 million haul reported in January? Then she's broke and struggling for cash. They're seeking $3 million in the next 3 days

But look at the Clintons' net worth. Did they leave the White House broke?

However, looks to me she can continue to self fund from personal hauls. Bill Clinton May Get Payout of $20 Million and then there's that mining deal that fetched $131.5 million.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

Well she's got $35 Million more of her own personal cash that she can loan to her campaign. Don't be surprised if she blows it all. It's really personal to her.

If I remember right, she's got bunches of cash for the GE that she can't spend until then because she did $4600 fund raisers up-front ($2300 Primary / $2300 General) when Obama discouraged giving that much up front. He knew that if/when they get to the general, all the big donors would automatically pony up.

I wonder if the rules allow her to pay back her loans from that General Election fund if/when she gets there, or if she doesn't make it that far, what happens to that money?

Right now she's trying to raise $1 million a day for 3 days from small donors, but that sounds unlikely. She's never been able to do that much with small donors before. Obama can, but not Hillary.

I doubt her campaign has anything in the bank right now. Obama's already bought like $15 Million in ads for the upcoming states and I don't think she's done that yet.

Booman, when you say Clinton's chances are less than 25%, do you mean that Obama will get enough delegates to make the convention a foregone conclusion, or that he'll pull it out at the convention thanks to getting enough superdelegates to clinch?  Or, to put it another way, how likely are each of the two above scenarios?

--
When we hear freedom we know it doesn't mean armed occupation. --felagund

I recall a discussion a long time ago before primary season began to the effect that Clinton's problem was that although she started with a big lead, her max had a low upper bound, whereas the upper bound for her two chief competitors, Edwards and Obama, was much higher.  I think that's held true, though Clinton has in my opinion significantly raised her upper bound.  Getting her hubby out of the race after SC was a very good decision on her part.  Still, the longer the race goes on, the more the polls (if not the pols) are going to shift towards Obama.  If the polls show him with a large lead over McCain relative to Clinton, the pols will put him in. We can't afford another Kerry disaster.

Knut

It's nice to know that Obama doesn't just have a money advantage but that she has a money problem that will be a part of every decision she has to make.

She'll spend on Virginia and/or Wisconsin and then (and mostly) on Ohio and Texas.  She'll start spinning the other February states as "small" and not worth the effort and more or less concede them to Obama like Georgia. Now that her money woes are public knowledge though, the spin may not work.    

These money woes give Obama a real chance to derail her by fighting her strongly in the pre-March 4 states she chooses to make her stand in, Wisconsin or Virginia.  BUT he needs to win to get the momentum benefit going into Ohio and Texas - not just the benefit of using up her resources.  That still means he has to pick off her advantage with women.

But even this doesn't mean she's out of it.  If she wins whichever state she chooses (or both)and then can win Texas and Ohio, she'll come up with more money to keep on until Pennsylvania.  Money always appears somehow for people as well-connected as the Clintons.  

Feb. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Barack Obama's campaign is forecasting that the Democratic presidential race will remain deadlocked after the primaries end, and the outcome may depend on a fight over whether delegations from Florida and Michigan are counted.

By the time the last primary is held June 7, Obama's advisers project he will have 1,806 delegates to 1,789 for New York Senator Hillary Clinton, according to a document outlining the scenario that was inadvertently attached to a release on delegate counts from yesterday's Super Tuesday primaries.

The forecast doesn't include Florida and Michigan, which were stripped of delegates by the Democratic National Committee for holding primaries ahead of the schedule set out by the party. Clinton, who won uncontested primaries in both states, is vowing a fight to have those delegates -- slated to be 366 in total -- seated at the nominating convention.

``This is only one of an infinite number of scenarios,'' Obama campaign spokesman Bill Burton said, adding that the release of the information was unintended.

Another issue is the so-called super delegates, 796 Democratic officials and officeholders who aren't bound by the results of primaries and caucuses. Obama's campaign projects about half will be pledged to either the Illinois senator or Clinton, and the rest could swing the nomination.

A Draw

After a year of campaigning and 26 contested primaries and caucuses since January, Obama and Clinton have essentially battled to a draw. After yesterday's Super Tuesday voting in 22 states across the country, the two candidates are separated by less than 30 delegates in the nomination race.

Obama's advisers are predicting victories in 19 of the remaining 27 Democratic primaries and caucuses, with Clinton winning the big states of Texas, Ohio and Pennsylvania, according to the campaign document. The final contest is a primary June 7 in Puerto Rico.

Before being penalized, Florida had a total of 210 convention delegates and Michigan had 156.

Clinton, 60, won half the popular vote in Florida's Jan. 29 primary, though none of the candidates publicly campaigned in the state. While she got 55 percent of the vote in Michigan, Obama withdrew his name from the ballot and the next highest vote went to uncommitted.

The campaign document shows Obama, 46, prevailing in Maryland, Virginia and the District of Columbia in next week's primaries. Wins are also forecast in Wisconsin, Oregon and Washington.

Bloomberg.

And I don't mean of the Obama campaign.  They have plenty of good people.

But to me, you have been a Savior of the Netroots.

I had lost faith. The netroots had become the MSM.  

But you, and a couple of others, were the only ones that looked realistically at Obama.

Most just all shared the same talking points.  No substance, blah, blah, blah, you've heard it all.

So kudos to you, Ezra, Oliver Willis and a few others.
You GET IT.

Let me have one more ramble.  We have a sickness in the net.  They are places like TalkLeft, Avedon, Taylor Marsh.  They will lie day after day about Obama.

 I rip Hillary, but not every time she sneezes.  I rip her for her Rove-like tactics and being the female Bush, only in for her last name, and flip-flopping nime million times on Iraq.

Today, TalkLeft called last night, the end of Obama.  That is truly a sickness of hate.  Avedon said, Obama would be the least likely one to listen to us.  What in God's name would even hint at that.

So I say to Avedon today, TalkLeft banned me for calling him on his lies, and I would puke if I read three words of Marsh.

So here goes.  To Avedon, Barack Obama has met with our Progressive Group, three times that I know of.  His office welcomes us.  He met with us the night he left for Washington to begin his Senate term. And he did everything we asked.  We wanted to fix what happened in the Ohio Vote.  

His first speech in the Senate was on the topic, and he has sponsored bill after bill to correct the voting problems.  

Now bloggers could actually look this up.  But they won't.  Because they are blinded with their hatred.

Oh Yeah, Paul Krugman is getting there.

So Booman Tribune has moved to the top of my list of much read every day.  Keep it up and the netroots will be rid of the blogs that want to be Karl Rove.

Patriotism and religion, like whiskey, is best used in moderation. Mark Twain

Obama Campaign Manager David Plouff just sent out a plea for funds in response to Hillary putting $5 million into her own campaign. In requesting that suppoters "match" her $5 Mil right away, he even mocked her inability to raise the $3 Million she needs in 3 days.

To date, more than 650,000 people like you have taken ownership of this campaign, giving whatever they can afford.

The Clinton infusion of $5 million -- and there are reports it could end up being as much as $20 million -- will give them huge resources for the next set of primaries and caucuses.

Thanks to you, we have raised more than $3 million since the polls closed on February 5th. But we have no choice -- we must match their $5 million right now.

We're going to do it the right way, with small donations from people like you. It's never been more urgent that you make a donation of $50 right now.

Too funny.

Looks like the Republicans have an ally in Barack Obama, after all:

http://www.rawstory.com/news/mochila/Obama_says_GOP_will_have_dirt_on_Cl_02062008.html

"Sen. Barack Obama predicted Wednesday that Republicans will have a dump truck full of dirt to unload on Hillary Rodham Clinton if the former first lady wins the Democratic presidential nomination. Obama said he offers the party its best hope of winning the White House, a claim Clinton also made."

Here in Massachusetts we had three U.S. Congressmen who voted against the War Resolution but worked their asses off for Hillary in the Massachusetts primary. These so-called anti-war "patriots" are doing everything in their power to elect the candidate who is most likely to take us to war against Iran.