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WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama

by BooMan
Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:14:08 PM EST

Washington state Gov. Christine Gregoire has endorsed Obama and will be appearing with him at the Key Arena at noon local time. At this point in the nomination process, governors are the most valuable endorsements that you can get. A senator or rep can provide you a nice press clipping and some organizational tools and phone/email lists, but nothing compared to a governor. This event will be a nice media event for Obama leading into the caucuses tomorrow.

As I have written elsewhere, Clinton needs a win somewhere between now and the March 4th contests that include the delegate-rich states of Ohio and Texas. She doesn't have good odds of winning the Louisiana primary because of the demographics of that state and she doesn't have any chance I can see of winning the Nebraska caucuses because of both Sen. Ben Nelson and Omaha Mayor Mike Fahey's support for Obama, and because Obama has demonstrated superior strength in that region's caucuses. Washington is Clinton's best chance for a win tomorrow and a shut-out will not be helpful when Mainers get up and go to their caucuses tomorrow.

If Clinton loses all three contests tomorrow and the caucuses Maine on Sunday, she is going to have a devil of a time warding off Obama's momentum and picking up a win in Virginia on Tuesday. Here's how it could look on Wednesday.

Post Super Tuesday Contests

Obama

Louisiana
Nebraska
Washington
Maine
Maryland
District of Colombia
Virginia

Clinton

Zilch
Nada
Zero
Bupkus

If that is the case, then Howard Dean's remarks will begin to take on more urgent meaning.

The narrow margin in delegates, and the growing likelihood that it will remain close, prompted concern on Wednesday from the chairman of the Democratic Party, Howard Dean, who said Tuesday night that Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton should avoid taking the nominating fight all the way to the party convention in August.
"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April," Mr. Dean said Wednesday on the NY1 cable news channel, "but if we don’t, then we’re going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don’t think we can afford to have a brokered convention; that would not be good news for either party."
An adviser to Mr. Dean said Wednesday that he had not discussed the idea with either candidate.
"He was essentially laying down a marker that if need be, he is prepared to step in and try to help resolve the situation," the adviser said.

Clinton will have a week to prepare for the February 19th caucus in Hawaii and primary in Wisconsin. Hawaii is where Obama was born and raised for the first few years of his life. He should be a hometown favorite there. If Clinton cannot win in Wisconsin, she'll have lost nine contests in a row (ten if you count the US Virgin Islands). While still technically alive in the delegate counts, shouldn't we expect her to bow to reality at that point? I know there will be pressure from all quarters for her to accept some kind of deal. This is what is going to happen unless Clinton can win in Washington, or Maine, or Virginia, or Wisconsin. If she can't win any of them, she should seriously consider bowing out.

WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama | 59 comments (59 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (4.00 / 2)

My email box is filled with unhappy WA state voters who thought they had done their duty by mailing in their primary votes...until they got an email from me last night telling them they needed to be at the caucus in order to get their voice heard.

by mainsailset on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:28:21 PM EST

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

vote too early, vote wrong.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:43:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (4.00 / 2)

That goes for superdelegates, too.

by RollaMO on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:53:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

That is so bizarre. Seems they should do one or the other, but BOTH? Is it designed to pacify the low-information voter?

Texas is kinda like that too... sort of.

by RandyH on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:08:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

Yup, pretty bizarre and this year with Rep's crossing the aisle they're accustomed to having the votes counting in both the primary & the caucus and diveeeed up in some magical way. Not so dems, which have historically used the caucuses and when the laws changed a couple of years ago the Party chose to hold with their caucus voice and let the primary act as an exercise only.

by mainsailset on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:34:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

There is no both. As I understand it, the Democrats at least have always used the caucus to select their delegates. Now for some reason Washington passed a law saying there would be a primary, and the Democrats said in effect, "Well, that's nice, but we're going to use the caucus to choose our delegates and ignore the primary."

Why exactly this happened, I don't know, but there it is.

I for one welcome our new Twitter overlords. @Omir55

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 06:36:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

O states? (4.00 / 2)

I'm not a number cruncher by any means, but Maine, Maryland and Virginia seem like they could be Clinton states, just from poking around the interwebs.

I do not like how Dean has injected himself into this. The American public doesn't quite understand how this stuff works. They think 'one man, one vote'. With Dean putting that out there, it makes it all seem like charade. Granted, I know it's a charade, but the public lives with the fantasy. That's one of my biggest annoyances with the delegate counters on the MSM sites. On one hand, it's good because people are seeing how these two large parties really work. On the other hand, the grumblings from people regarding the superdelegates are getting louder. Who knows, maybe after this election, we'll finally move away from this archaic and unfair way of voting and actually have 'one man, one vote'.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:47:08 PM EST

Re: O states? (none / 1)

Not Maryland. Lots of African Americans and higher-educated types. It's Obama's, like DC.

by RandyH on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:10:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Shows how much I know (none / 0)

I only know white people in and from MD. Then again, I'm convinced that the only black people in DE are from one branch of my family tree. Still, with the exception of one person, everyone I know living in MD are avid Clinton supporters.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shows how much I know (none / 0)

I'm in Maryland and for the past couple of days I've been at our local Obama for President office. I'll be there later on this evening, doing a couple of events this weekend, and then will make a bee-line to the office Mon. evening and all day Election Day.

Though our governor and senior Senator endorsed her, we have a great chance to beat her and resoundingly so on Tues.

I am more than miffed that our junior Senator, Ben Cardin, did not endorse him, after his campaign and damn near everyone in the party begged Obama to come and campaign for him at our "Unity Rally." Which Obama did--I actually met the Senator in the VIP holding area because I was involved w/ it the day before and day of. (The backstory is that Cardin defeated Kweisi Mfume for the nomination and he was facing a well-funded Michael Steele, Maryland's first Black Lt. Governor, in the general.) At this point, as long as he remains neutral, then OK...but I have a long damned memory.

Yes, there are a lot of African Americans in the area. I live in Prince George's, where (I think this is still true) we are the wealthiest majority-Black county in the nation. What's definitely true is that when our demographics shifted from majority white to majority Black, our median income increased, not decreased, which is the norm.

There's also a huge number of AAs in Baltimore. Montgomery County, which is the biggest and wealthiest county in the state, is also well-suited to Obama's strength. Both Prince George's and Montgomery Counties are WDC-area counties, which is where the population growth and money are, for the most part.

The other potential problem is that "our" County Executive (I damned sure didn't vote for him!) just endorsed Clinton after agreeing to have his name used for Obama materials. BUT. He barely got elected and any semblance of a "machine" went up in smoke. He's not an authoritative voice people will support, especially on this. And trust me--she doesn't want to be on the same stage as him. He'll just make her look bad. I think they know this.

Something else you won't see: for all of her talk of having endorsements from the "other Kennedys," it was a big joke here because our former Lt. Gov, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, is still reviled because of the PISS POOR campaign she ran, including asking someone to be her running mate whose only claims to fame was that he was a former republican (and I mean, two weeks before she announced him) and that he was still friends with John McCain from their midshipmen days.

Obama will win here, but we have to work it! I act like we're 10 points down.

And Marylanders or anyone with a few extra dollars to donate online: Don't forget the dynamite Donna Edwards! She needs your vote and your help on primary day!

I'm gonna be one sleepy woman next Wednesday!

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:35:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shows how much I know (none / 0)

In fact, I'm listening to his radio ad on the "smooth jazz" station that's streaming over my computer.

Until I can get a CD and speaker set in here so I can play some REAL jazz, this will have to do.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:58:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Lot's of good jazz stations (none / 1)

Here's my local station and I have a list of other stations. You can also get Pandora going on your computer and compile some radio stations. Here's my Pandora station.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 06:04:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shows how much I know (none / 1)

here's another good jazz station: kuvo jazz 89:but they're in the middle a fund drive now, so maybe save it a √ it out later.

lTMF'sA

the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 06:13:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Shows how much I know (none / 0)

Thank you for the real jazz stations (streaming). Yay! I can't stand a completely silent office. I need to have something playing in the background. Helps me think. Sometimes, the silence is too loud. It's only when I'm in deep concentration mode that I must have it silent.

And I WILL get the separate music set up in the office, so I don't have to use the computer. My director is so cool--he has tons of stuff, from Monk to Norah Jones. So I plan to raid his CD collection.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 11:43:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Baltimore (none / 0)

Hairspray! John Waters taught me something. LOL! Thanks for the background on the state, that was very, very enlightening.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 06:05:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Baltimore (none / 0)

I think all of John Waters' movies take place in Baltimore. The man is a genius.

by RandyH on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 06:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I agree, but about Nebraska, Maine and Virginia.. (none / 1)

It's going to be a real fight in VA.

Dean's 'injection,' as it were, is more to say that he is going to work hard to keep this honest, and that he is still in control of the party apparatus, and that people f*ck with him at their peril. No doubt that if Billary gets their way, Dean would be the first casualty of her elevation to queen. The best thing Dean could do is to mandate that Michigan and Florida hold quick caucuses now whose results could break the draw and a clear frontrunner could be determined. That way there would be no confusion or bad PR about "how this looks" to the voters.

If I were Dems, I would work to get rid of those super delegate rules which favor people like Billary as soon as humanly possible. Don't even allow DNC'ers like McAuliffe any room to maneuver or a toehold in decision-making any more.

An untypical Negro

http://thisblksistaspage.wordpress.com

by blksista (gab1954@gmail.com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:17:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree, but... (none / 0)

Yes, but I hope not as hard a fight some seem to think it is. Virginia is my home state; Maryland my current one.

He's got good endorsements: Gov. Kaine has a good organization. NoVa is well suited to Obama. Gov. Kaine's wife and Gov. Warner's wife are heading up a "Women for Obama" group to mitigate some of the support of women, but particularly in NoVa.

There's a big AA population in the Richmond and Tidewater area (one of those areas is my hometown). Both areas are also rich in universities: U of Richmond, Va. Commonwealth, Va. Union (HBCU) Va. State (HBCU), Norfolk State (HBCU) Hampton (HBCU) Old Dominion U, and more. Rep. Bobby Scott (first and only AA congressman in Va)has also endorsed Obama.

Charlottesville area: UVA, horse country. If nothing else, Sheila Johnson (BET founder and ex-wife of that damned Bob Johnson) lives there too and has endorsed Obama. Hey, it's something.

I don't know why folks think she'll clean up in Southwest Va. I got one word for you: NAFTA. I also have another three words: closed textile shops. I know this well. Also, he has endorsements from Rep. Rick Boucher (the congressman from that area) and House Dem Leader Del. Ward Armstrong, who also hails from that area.

I'm not at all sanguine; never that! But if we all do what we need to do, we should clean up.

Can't hear ya, Peach!

by AP on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:51:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pelosi on superdelegates (none / 0)

Have you seen the CNN interview with Pelosi regarding the superdelegates? I don't know if it's her, but she actually made it sound shady. She says that the superdelegates are working within the framework of the state's politics. Well, we know that's not necessarily true. Some of those superdelegates are angled toward or even away Clinton for payback. I do like how all the party "leaders" are avoiding the Clinton/Obama Obama/Clinton question.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:24:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pelosi on superdelegates (none / 0)

Just from what I see, wouldn't a lot of office holder/superdelegates find Obama's coattails a lot longer than Clinton's? I can imagine a real sweep with Obama, trench warfare with Clinton.

by Bob In Pacifica on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 04:32:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: O states? (none / 0)

Shades of 1968? I hope not, but once in a lifetime is enough.

I understand the post-68 reforms have partially gone away.

by Heart of the Rockies on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:38:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

Maine sounds like a possiblity for her, what's going on there?

by RollaMO on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:17:25 PM EST

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

sheds some light:Maine & Obama

and I'm gonna pimp my diary: Clinton, fundraising woes, All a stunt?

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:25:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

yeah, he makes great points. Maine is a contest Clinton should win. It has less delegates than the District of Colombia, but it will have great psychological value if she can avoid a shutout.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:29:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

I'll wait for the results. In the meanwhile:

TIME Poll: Clinton More Beatable than Obama

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 12:42:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Good endorsement because, as you say, it could help in tangible ways. And will counter the ads she's running showing her other women endorsements.

Howard Dean can get as urgent as he wants - neither of them is dropping out or making a deal until after Pennsylvania and probably not after that.

As I said the other day, Hillary can lose every state between now and March 4. She's banking on Texas and Ohio. If she wins Texas and Ohio she's back in the game. And she'll probably win those.

If Obama wants to knock her out he needs (1) to run the table unti March 4 making sure to win a high visibility state she's contesting AND (2)win Texas and Ohio. He may accomplish (1) but I don't see him accomplishing (2) - and winning delegates but not popular vote won't count for a knockout.

If he loses BIG in Texas and Ohio he may be finished even with all those small state wins. But it would have to be a big delegate loss and I'm guessing that won't happen.

Dean is banking on Texas and Ohio being decisive. I doubt they will decide anything except that the race goes on.

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:11:53 PM EST

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

you act like the Clintons can do whatever they want and brush aside pressure, and still think they'll get the superdelegates. The media and political environment between now and March 4th will be brutal if she loses everywhere, including Wisconsin. And Maine really doesn't cut it if it stands alone.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:16:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

The Clintons put up with 8 years of nasty media pressure.

I'm telling you. She's not dropping out before Ohio and Texas (even Howard didn't posit that theory) and once she wins Ohio and Texas she'll go on to Pennsylvania. Why do you think she put out the money story? To give her an excuse for losing all those states but then being the 'come back' kid when she wins Texas and Ohio. And 7 million raised on line isn't going to change that 'woe is me, I'm the underdog now' story.

You act like the Clintons aren't willing to let things get ugly. Or go toe to toe with Obama and see who blinks first. Or aren't willing and planning, if she and Obama are essentially tied at the end, to make a myriad of complicated deals that affect superdelegates all the way down to the county level in order to get their support ("don't worry, I'll make so and so my undersecretary of such and such and that will open up that county level seat for YOU). It's politics. It's how it's done.

The real question is whether the Clintons and the superdelegates are willing to rip the Democratic party apart and risk losing an election or squeaking by against McCain without the African American vote. Will Bill damage his "legacy" in that way? I don't know.

But that is not a question whose time has come until after Pennsylvania. Unless Obama performs a miracle and wins Texas and Ohio.

Write me something that shows how Obama can win both Ohio and Texas or at least can get enough delegates from them that after that election she sees there's no hope. Then I'll rethink this.

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:32:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

good points. a do to the death.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:49:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

They are not a frankenstein monster, they aren't pure evil, and they are in no way immune from political pressure, which, by the way, is the same thing as being told that you won't have the superdelegate support.

Anyway, one of your consistent requirements is that Obama beat Clinton in a big state that she is contesting. How's this look to you?

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:16:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

I never said they were Frankenstein. Or immune from pressure (see my doubt about whether they were prepared to rip the party apart). I think they are the best politicians in the Democratic party and I think they don't quit easily. I certainly NEVER said they were pure evil. I'm not one of the Hillary haters. I'm just pragmatic.

Let me phrase this another way - I don't think it will be clear whether or not she'll have lost the superdelegate support until after Pennsylvania much less before Ohio and Texas.

Even Howard Dean is talking about a deal after Ohio and Texas not before. So she will be in it through Ohio and Texas.

Then after Ohio and Texas she'll be telling superdelegates to wait until Pennsylvania. I believe the superdelegates will not want to look like they are deciding the race and enough of them will, therefore, put off a decision on pressure until after Pennsylvania UNLESS Obama (1) runs the table pre-March 4 including beating her in a state she strongly contests AND (2) wins Texas and Ohio. IF he manages that he may convince them early that they run no risk throwing their support to him and then he's knocked her out.

It seems entirely possible that he could do (1). But I don't see him doing number 2. The superdelegates will, therefore, hedge their bets and wait for Pennsylvania (which btw won't solve their problem either but maybe time will start running out). There is no reason for her to drop out unless and until she has officially lost the superdelegates.

Virginia looks great right now. I still don't see him winning Ohio and Texas.

And personally I think Howard was talking about a deal on FL and MI. Not a deal that one of them will drop out.

Since I'm supporting Obama I hope you are right and I'm wrong.

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:54:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

I'm fascinated with your confidence that Clinton can do what Giuliani could not. How is she supposed to win in Ohio after getting beaten in nearly every primary preceding it? She has strength there, but c'mon. You act like she can't lose it. I bet polls show her down by 10 points if she can't win WA, VA, or WI leading up to it.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:06:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Well, I hope she does lose. I hope you're right.

Clinton is not Guliani. She's essentially tied in popular vote and delegates with Obama. No comparison. And as I've said a couple of times, she's setting up to justify her string of losses and minimize them. Maybe she'll fail; I think she'll succeed at some level. That's why he can't lose in a state where it's clear she can't minimize the loss because she strongly contested it. What does it do to him to win a string of states she doesn't spend time in and then lose Virginia? She would claim that in a true head to head like California and Virginia he loses to her. That sows doubt and stops his momentum.

But since this is a continuing conversation go back to what I said the other day. I said that I thought Obama had a better chance in Ohio than Texas. And if he won Ohio and could then win Pennsylvania he'd knock her out. But to knock her out on March 4 he has to win BOTH Ohio and Texas. Which I don't see happening.

Ohio seems tailor made for Clinton on paper - lots of low-moderate income working class white Democrats. Plus women. Those are the people who vote for her. But Obama could do it - especially if he comes in like a juggernaut. That's why I said the other day that in some ways he has more pressure on him to win - because coming in like a juggernaut and defeating her in WA, VA and WI puts him in a much better position to win Ohio.

On the other hand, I think she's going to put every resource she has into Ohio and Texas. More even than Virginia or Wisconsin.

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:49:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Ohio matches her demographics. Working class all the way.

by wasabi cat on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:49:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reasons for pessimism (none / 0)

See this comment.

The first point is about my concern, based on making many calls for Obama today, that a lot of Democrats aren't going to show up tomorrow because they think the 2/19 primary is the one that matters. That does not necessarily work to one or another of their favor, but it means that things are much more up in the air and less likely to reflect the population's actual preferences.

The second point is really depressing: with McCain having the race in the bag, Republicans who'd prefer to run against Hillary can now afford to vote for her in open Dem contests -- if they dare. (They may not.) Payback for the "Mitt in Michigan" drive.

I still think you're too sanguine, and now I have two more reasons.

Obama-Gore 2008. Broker that!

by Major Danby (senecadoane at lycos period com) on Sat Feb 9th, 2008 at 12:29:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

I actually think she could lose Maine, and if they split Ohio and Texas, advantage Obama?

by RollaMO on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:18:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Check that, I mean I think she could win Maine - so what does a TX - OH split do?

by RollaMO on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:19:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

I can see Obama winning Texas if he's taking it seriously, growing a good field organization and intends to do several events. But Ohio will be more difficult for him. Another thing to note is that Obama is advertising in all of these upcoming markets. Hillary - not so much. Can't afford it.

by RandyH on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:20:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

If Obama could win Texas and compete in Ohio, he'll be looking good. But I still don't think he knocks her out with just Texas unless he wins HUGE in Texas. I wonder if that's even possible. I'm guessing it's impossible.

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:35:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

I'm not a Texan and don't play one on TV. Thank God.
But, I know enough to know that Obama won't win Texas.
Ohio? Can't even guess what'll happen there.

by cheviteau on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:53:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Debate is in Cleveland, which should be friendly territory. But the state is very diverse.

by Heart of the Rockies on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:47:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

Gee, talking about the primaries here! How refreshing. I stopped by TalkLeft and all they were doing was wringing their hands about how Obama is a sexist.

by Bob In Pacifica on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:29:16 PM EST

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 1)

Yeah, I don't care what Big Tent Dem said before, it's full on Obama bashing over there.

by RollaMO on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:31:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

This reminds me, what the hell is goint to happen this summer at Netroots Nation if a nominee has not been decided?

by RollaMO on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:44:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (4.00 / 4)

It will ruin the plans to have crowds of happy looking "blogger/activists" as extras in the movie "Netroots the Movie Part III: Chris and Jane do Texas."

by maryb2004 on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:52:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That was funny (none / 1)

"The claws come out" is now sexist. This from the same group of people who said of all the Clinton's race-baiting, "What? It's entirely possible he was slinging crack in the hood. Duh. He's black." The same people who sat there through all of the racists smears of the Clinton campaign and just couldn't figure out what black people were talking about. We were being "too sensitive" or "imagining insults". Riiiight.

Oh damn, that's funny to me.

The blog post was bad enough, but 230 comments of complete and total insanity just seals it. That was fucking hilarious.

~~~THIS SPACE FOR RENT~~~

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:57:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That was funny (none / 0)

Agree. Imagine if he'd said "the fangs come out" instead of "the claws come out." Then they might complain that he's publicly questioning her gender-identity.

by RandyH on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 05:34:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Ya'know, if those pesky Giants woulda just folded in the last seconds, the Patriots woulda won and I'da won twenty bucks. Drat! Caint Hillary learn nothing?

by cheviteau on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 01:39:42 PM EST

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Gregoire's endorsement is one of the few that might matter in WA. I used to live there, and she was highly thought of.

So that's really helpful.

What's not helpful is the awful weather they've been having. Only the truly faithful will show up to vote, and I actually think that favors Hillary voters, who have been at this a much longer time than many of the newer Obama supporters. But we'll see. I think in the popular vote, Obama would win. Not sure in a caucus situation, his wins in other states notwithstanding.

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:22:09 PM EST

Re: WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama (none / 0)

Greg Nickels (Seattle's mayor) & Norm Rice endorsed Obama as well. Wish us luck we all have our snow shoes dusted off! Both passes closed for the moment, rain and wind on the west side. Hey, we're tough.

by mainsailset on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:51:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Clintons' roots in and with the rank and file (none / 0)

party wonk-workers goes deep.

VERY deep.

And I will guarantee you that deals are being made up and down the establishment Dem line as we speak. From top to bottom. A thorough, typically Clintonesque effort. Do you really expect that the baby-boomer group that runs the infrastructure of the DemRat Party is going to throw a tie toward Obama!!!???

Wake the fuck UP!!!

If Obama does not outright win most of the approaching primaries (And I think that he is shot in Texas and Ohio already.), the best that he can hope for is a VP slot. If it gets so nasty that he cannot accept the VP thing and/or the Clinton machine cannot offer it...and you'll notice that in fact the invective has been scaled WAY down on both sides at least since the so-called debate in Las Vegas...then they can BOTH kiss their sure shot goodbye because McCain will have had months in which to assemble his own cast of supporters with an "Anybody but those craven liberals. Even ME!!!" campaign.

If McCain can get the regular Ratpubs...YOU know, the ones who are still giving Butch 30%-ish approval ratings...plus the anti-black and anti-female vote while the Dems cannot counter with a large pro-Obama minority, pro-Hillary female, youth and new voters/undecideds vote, he could squeak on into the Presidency.

And you know what THAT would mean.

A nasty-spirited, crotchety old man with real political intelligence in place of a nasty-spirited, dumb younger man who is a complicated project to run and thus less than efficient in his fronting for the Neo-Cons.

Two years of McCain and we'll be looking back at the reign of Butch the Lesser with fond remembrance.

Bet on it.

Clinton/Obama in '08.
It's the only SURE way.

Wanna bet Dean has a phrase similar to that one etched into his bathroom mirror and filled in with in indelible blue ink?

"I think we will have a nominee sometime in the middle of March or April," Mr. Dean said Wednesday on the NY1 cable news channel, "but if we don't, then we're going to have to get the candidates together and make some kind of an arrangement. Because I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention; that would not be good news for either party."
An adviser to Mr. Dean said Wednesday that he had not discussed the idea with either candidate.
"He was essentially laying down a marker that if need be, he is prepared to step in and try to help resolve the situation," the adviser said.

"Help resolve the situation."

Riiiiight.

Bet on it.

Later...

AG

Goodness had nothing to do with it, dearie.-Mae West

by Arthur Gilroy (arthurgilroy<at>earthlink.net) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:37:54 PM EST

Re: The Clintons' roots in and with the rank and f (none / 0)

It would make me 100% cynical instead of 99% cynical.

I would have a very, very hard time with such a ticket. Much harder than Hillary and somebody else.

Obama is young. He doesn't have to take second place. There should be another chance for him if she is nominated.

by Heart of the Rockies on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:50:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Arthur (none / 0)

you really aren't approaching this with any sense of realism.

Let's talk about superdelegates. There are 796 of them.

100 of them are sitting senators.
230 of them are sitting members of the house.
30 of them are sitting in governor's mansions.

796-360=436.

That's 436 people that are either former party leaders like Tom Foley (Hillary) or Tom Daschle (Barack), or minor DNC functionaries.

Here's a list of the superdelegates that haven't endorsed yet. The vast majority of the elected officials are unlikely to endorse Clinton unless she is the clear delegate leader for two reasons.

if they were fans of Hillary they probably would have already endorsed her when she looked unstoppable.
almost none (or possibly none) of them will have an easier reelection if she is the nominee.

If Obama has the delegate lead he will win most of the outstanding superdelegates among elected officials. The question then becomes whether Clinton can make up that deficit and her pledged delegate deficit with the 436 (mostly) DNC members. Again, it's extremely unlikely that they will overthrow the the collective opinion of the people and the elected officials, and the chairman of the DNC, and the press, and go with Clinton.

The Clintons have nothing extra special to offer that Obama doesn't have. For more on why Clinton will never prevail under those circumstance see this Village Voice piece.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 02:59:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Correction (none / 0)

50 of them are sitting senators.
230 of them are sitting members of the house.
30 of them are sitting in governor's mansions.

796-310=486.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:01:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That's the trouble with numbers, Booman. (none / 0)

They tend to slip and slide around a lot.

Plus...they have no soul whatsoever.

My own take on this idea?

These are highly conservative people, most of these these superdelegates. That's how they got to that position of power, and that is how they will STAY there. By playing the game and knowing the odds.

Given a choice of a sure thing or a real race, they will choose the sure thing every time.

And given a choice between a known quantity that has already proven that it is friendly to their general style and aims...remember, most of them ascended to power around the same time as the Clinton I Presidency's boom period...and a relatively unknown quantity that depends on a power base that is distributed through many areas of the culture that are essentially foreign territory to these people (minorites, undecideds, the youth vote etc.) they will take the known quantity over the unkown one in a heartbeat.

Your progessive dreams get in the way of your political understanding, Booman.

Understandable...even laudable in some respects...but ulitmately a dead end.

Sorry.

I wish it were otherwise. I really do.

But it's not.

This is an empire, Booman.

And it WILL act accordingly.

Watch.

AG

Goodness had nothing to do with it, dearie.-Mae West

by Arthur Gilroy (arthurgilroy<at>earthlink.net) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:31:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: That's the trouble with numbers, Booman. (none / 0)

we're both banking on people being predictable. We have different ideas about what predictable means in this case.

One other measure to consider is the pull of voting the same way as one's state or district, even if you are not a rep.

Most SD's will go this way. Obama is setting himself up to win 25-26 out of the first 37 contests.

by BooMan on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:35:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HERE are some numbers for ya, Booman. (none / 0)

And a few little statements as well. (From ABC News)

Of the almost 800 super delegates, less than half have decided whom they will support at the convention; the rest are sitting on the fence, according to ongoing calls by ABC News to the super delegates.
Of the 400 super delegates who have committed, Clinton is leading, with the support of 213 super delegates; 142 are committed to Obama, according to the latest ABC News survey.

That's almost exactly 2 to 3 in favor of Ms. Clinton. Should that number hold up...and I'm betting that since the Clinton machine now realizes that it is in a serious battle, the remaining 400 or so will be hearing all KINDS of blandishments from the Clinton people...that means that 530 (or probably more) superdelegates will be for Clinton.

They need to capture 2,025 votes to win, right? 530 is one quarter of what she needs, right there.

How many has she already? So far she has 840 pledged.

That's a projected 1370 already.

That means she only needs 655 to win.

Do you really think that she cannot win 655 more pledged delegates in the coming primaries? Hell Booman, out of the 4049 possible delegates that can be won in primaries, 1996 have been picked so far . Make that an even half for ease of calculation.

She has won 840 out of the first half...a mix of states that is just about as general as is the mix of the second half. Why do you suppose that she can't win ANOTHER 800+?

And there it is, Clinton for Dem candidate in '08.

Edwards' delegates?

Shit, man...he only HAS 26!!!

Game, set and match.

The big brouhaha over this?

It's political spin.

Its purpose is to keep the sleeple involved and entertained right to the end.

Keep the yokels yawping.

See my sig for more on THAT shit.

There it is.

Can she lose?

Yes.

My best take on that possibility?

She doesn't look so hot these days. She may not have the vitality to continue at this pace.

Obama does, for sure.

But he has one HELL of an uphill battle...baraka, Kennedy support nd all...to get there.

Watch.

Clinton/Obama in '08.

Donna Brazile:

If 795 of my colleagues decide this election, I will quit the Democratic Party. I feel very strongly about this," Donna Brazile told CNN this week.

Bullshit.

SHE knows what's up, and is not about to leave her well-paid perch as a Dem hustler.

The firestorm over the role of super delegates may be premature.
This week, Democratic National Committee chairman Howard Dean said that if there is no nominee selected by mid-March or April, or by the last presidential primary on the Democratic calendar in June, the party would likely bring both sides together to work out a deal.
"I don't think we can afford to have a brokered convention," Dean told NY1 this week. "That would not be good news for either party."

I almost spurted coffee outta my nose when I first read this.

Translation:

He expects Hillary to win by mid-spring/early summer. If she doesn't, he will tell Obama to butt out and take the VP slot for the good of the (Fill in the blank...country, party, fix, any and all of the above...) unless he has won a HUGE number of delegates. Which I do not think is more than about a 5 to 1 possibility if that.

Only wild card here, besides the usual unforeseen gaffes and scandals or somebody getting sick? Can't think of any. Even war with Iran wouldn't stop THIS movement unless it involved real martial law (and I don't think the military will back that eventuality, myself), nor would Bloomberg coming into the race do much to change it.

There it is.

Watch.

Betcha...

AG

Goodness had nothing to do with it, dearie.-Mae West

by Arthur Gilroy (arthurgilroy<at>earthlink.net) on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 05:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Arthur (none / 1)

...unless they believe that Obama might actually change the way things are done. A whole of these people would do anything, take any risk, to prevent a real threat to the duopoly status quo.

FDR's response to progressive demands: "I agree. Now go out and make me do it."

by DaveW on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 03:06:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A tougher row to hoe (none / 0)

I agree. From all I see, Clinton on the top of the ticket will make it harder for anyone below. With Obama at the top of the ticket it's possible to see a very big Democratic sweep.

Another thing. If Obama is on the top of the ticket does anyone really think that New York, Massachusetts and California won't go Democratic?

And, no, dear readers visiting from TalkLeft, the "hoe" is a farm implement, not a sexist remark directed at any Clinton family member.

by Bob In Pacifica on Fri Feb 8th, 2008 at 06:19:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

WA-Gov Gregoire Endorses Obama | 59 comments (59 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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