Much of the so-called success of the surge strategy in Iraq has had little to do with the escalation of troop levels by the Pentagon, and much to do with agreements between US forces and local Sunni tribes and former insurgents. These "Awakening Councils" have agreed to patrol their own districts and combat Al Qaeda in Iraq forces in exchange for arms, money and other support from the US military. In essence, American troops let Sunnis fight Sunnis so they wouldn't have to do so, reducing American deaths, even while the Shi'ite dominated government in Baghdad adamantly opposed this tactic, fearing it was only offering their sectarian rivals a chance to regroup and rearm in preparation for the day when the US withdrew its forces in whole or part.

Well, now it appears that the "arm the Sunnis, too" strategy (which pre-dated the surge by several months) is beginning to unravel, as some Awakening Council leaders are withdrawing from their agreements with the Americans:

Sunni armed groups known as Awakening Councils appear to have withdrawn their support for US forces and the Iraqi government in Diyala province.

The move has been seen as a significant blow to the US, which has hailed the groups' work in securing towns and neighbourhoods as a rare success in increasing security in the country. [...]

In Diyala province, a curfew has been imposed after the Sunni Awakening Councils ended patrols of towns and neighbourhoods. Tensions began mounting after two girls were kidnapped and killed last week by men dressed in Iraqi security forces uniform. Their bodies were later found stripped naked.

The armed groups gave the chief of police until midday on Friday to apologise and arrest the men, who they say are Shia militiamen in the Iraqi security forces.

"We hereby declare suspension of all co-operation with both US military, Iraqi security forces and the local government," Abu Abdullah, spokesman for Diyala's Awakening Council, announced after the deadline passed. [...]

Hoda Abdel-Hamid, Al Jazeera's correspondent in Iraq, said: "As US forces push into Diyala as part of a massive operation to clear up the province, they need these people.

"And once you have one Awakening Council who is going to retract, it might be more difficult to convince others citizens anywhere else to be part of these Awakening Councils." [...]

The crisis threatens to spread as Awakening Councils in Falluja, Ramadi and certain neighbourhoods in Baghdad, complain of a lack of support from the government.

What does this mean in the short term? More US patrols and therefore the risk of higher US casualties in Diyala province and elsewhere. Indeed, that may have already started to occur:

Meanwhile, the US military announced that five American soldiers were killed in two roadside bombings on Friday.

Four of the deaths occurred in Baghdad and one in Tamim province, the US military said in two separate statements on Saturday. The Tamim blast also wounded three soldiers.

The problems in Diyala province also underscore the unresolved sectarian tensions between the Awakening Councils and the Shi'ite dominated government, police and army forces. We bought a very small measure of reduced fighting with our support of Sunni tribes who had previously opposed our forces, but we haven't eliminated the fundamental political problem in Iraq which is the sectarian and ethnic divisions between Shi'ite and Sunni, Arab and Kurd. Those divisions cannot be resolved merely by using Sunni proxies to fight the Sunni based Al Qaeda in Iraq on our behalf.

The surge has created a false sense of progress, but underneath, nothing has really changed. And without political progress involving reconciliation and compromise among all the groups in Iraq, any benefits from the military escalation Bush (and our sycophantic American media) labeled the "Surge" will be ephemeral at best. At any moment, the smallest spark can relight the tinderbox of sectarian strife and the current level of violence, which declined but has not been eradicated by any stretch of the imagination, will increase dramatically once more.

And, as always our troops, and innocent Iraqi civilians will be caught in the crossfire.