Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

Happy Good Friday

by BooMan
Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:06:20 PM EST

Someone asked me about a week ago whether Obama could win in Pennsylvania and I said that all the metrics were against him but that it wouldn't matter because Clinton could never go six weeks without people noticing that her campaign is dead, gone, and over. Today, VanderHei and Allen noticed and this is the narrative that will kill Clinton's chances in the Keystone state:

One big fact has largely been lost in the recent coverage of the Democratic presidential race: Hillary Rodham Clinton has virtually no chance of winning.
Her own campaign acknowledges there is no way that she will finish ahead in pledged delegates. That means the only way she wins is if Democratic superdelegates are ready to risk a backlash of historic proportions from the party’s most reliable constituency.
Unless Clinton is able to at least win the primary popular vote — which also would take nothing less than an electoral miracle — and use that achievement to pressure superdelegates, she has only one scenario for victory. An African-American opponent and his backers would be told that, even though he won the contest with voters, the prize is going to someone else.
People who think that scenario is even remotely likely are living on another planet.

I just got done knocking on Independent's doors in Phoenixville, Pennsylvania and there is considerably more support for Obama in the all-white neighborhood I canvassed than there is for Clinton or McCain. But that isn't the measure that is important. Unlike all the other states that have gone before, Pennsylvania will not be decided by the white vote or the black vote or the old lady vote or the Hispanic vote or the union vote. It will be decided by the truth seeping into the mainstream media narrative that Clinton has no way to win except by superdelegate and the superdelegates will never, ever overturn Obama's victory.

Happy Good Friday | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Happy Good Friday (4.00 / 3)

As it happens, many people inside Clinton's campaign live right here on Earth. One important Clinton adviser estimated to Politico privately that she has no more than a 10 percent chance of winning her race against Barack Obama, an appraisal that was echoed by other operatives.
In other words: The notion of the Democratic contest being a dramatic cliffhanger is a game of make-believe.

by BooMan on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:10:40 PM EST

Re: Happy Good Friday (3.50 / 2)

I'm watching Washington Week in Review and Politico Editor in Chief John Harris and Alexis Simendinger (National Journal) just basically agreed that the math doesn't work and Hillary's only path is for a miracle to occur. And eventually party leaders are going to have to do something.

The certainty of no re-votes in Fl and MI seems to have turned the tide in the media.

by maryb2004 on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:21:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Happy Good Friday (4.00 / 2)

the speech helped and I see signs the media is changing:

1.Fox News' Chris Wallace has had enough Obama-bashing. Anchors walked off the set.

2. TIME - Halperin's Take: 14 Painful Things Hillary Clinton Knows -- Or Should Know

"Reason No: 4 "Nancy Pelosi and other leading members of Congress don't think she can win and want her to give up. Same with superdelegate-to-the-stars Donna Brazile."

3.Charles Murray at the Corner praises Obama.

[.] "the other day he talked about race in ways that no other major politician has tried to do, with a level of honesty that no other major politician has dared, and with more insight than any other major politician possesses. Not bad."

4. The Daily Dish cites link down at CBS.

"New CBS poll, 71 percent thought he did a good job explaining his relationship with Wright, with 24 percent saying a poor job. 63 percent mostly agreed with his views on race. The poll shows no real shift from the speech in voters' intent to vote for him or not vote for him."

Yeah, something is happening here.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:58:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Happy Good Friday (none / 1)

That 70% figure shocked me, and polls on this are looking better by the day. It does seem that, in the age of YouTube and similar networking sites, Obama was able to, not only avoid being taken down by Wright, but perhaps even turn it into a positive in the end -- if these polls continue to show gradual improvement -- by speaking to the country as if it was a country of adults. Imagine that.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Mar 22nd, 2008 at 10:34:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Knocking on doors (4.00 / 2)

I just got done knocking on Independent's doors in Phoenixville, Pennsylvania

Good for you. Seriously. (There should be an emoticon to indicate, "I'm not being sarcastic here.")

by Renee in Ohio on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:49:12 PM EST

True colors (4.00 / 2)

In case any of us were wondering, the Clinton campaign has today shown their true colors as they responded to the Richardson endorsement.

You may have seen Penn's repose on Daily Kos

or McAuliffe's take

by Heart of the Rockies on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 09:00:06 PM EST

Re: True colors (none / 0)

Richardson just responded to Penn's statement on Olbermann - saying it was offensive that Penn basically said the endorsement would have been helpful before the TX primary because of the large Latino population, but now it's almost meaningless.

by Second Nature (denn1214 at gmail) on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 09:03:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True colors (none / 0)

I think it's meaningless because of geography. New Mexico is nowhere near Oregon, Indiana, Pennsylvania, et al.

Then again, because the nomination is over, whether Richardson's endorsement is meaningless is meaningless.

by liberaljournal on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 09:16:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True colors (none / 0)

I think it's meaningless because of geography. New Mexico is nowhere near Oregon, Indiana, Pennsylvania, et al.

Then again, because the nomination is over, whether Richardson's endorsement is meaningless is meaningless.

by liberaljournal on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 09:17:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: True colors (none / 0)

Oregon and Washington have large Latino populations. They are huge states for fruit production, and the crops are picked by Latinos.

But I don't think that is the point of the endorsement. This man was in the Clinton cabinet. If you read my two links, you will see that their approach to him was offensive and calculating. And he didn't take very kindly to it.

by Heart of the Rockies on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 10:19:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Happy Good Friday (4.00 / 3)

I'm proud of you, BooMan. Knocking on doors. The very essence of Democracy. Way to go.

Any interesting conversations?? I love talking to voters (even if I hate talking on the phone!)and hearing their thoughts and concerns when they take the time to share them.

I knocked on doors for Dean in New Hampshire. I remember this one elderly couple inviting me in to talk, insisting I have a piece of a freshly baked chocolate cake, and relax and discuss the election for a bit before I moved on. That was so cool!

"If you look for the social economic motive, you will not have to wait for history to tell you what was propaganda and what was truth." - George Seldes

by Real History Lisa (lpeaseRemoveThis@gte.net) on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 11:02:14 PM EST

Clinton Campaign - Money Problems (3.50 / 2)

Ouch! Hillary's campaign is in the red, and the NY Times spotted it:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/ 03/21/clintons-february-fec-filings/

by eagleye on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:39:56 PM EST

Re: Happy Good Friday (none / 0)

Tone deaf to the end.

by mainsailset on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:24:19 PM EST

If you had asked the British (none / 1)

what the chances were that a Revolution could occur in their colony, what might they have said?

This is the ideal opportunity for Obama's fourth speech (the one I've been waiting for him to give). In the cradle of the Constitution, it's time to restore privacy to everyone...including the next president of the United States.

Michaela

by michaelmt (MrMichael_t@yahoo.com) on Fri Mar 21st, 2008 at 08:48:35 PM EST

Re: Happy Good Friday (none / 1)

Hilary may be out of it mathmatically, but news reports I heard had her rising dramatically in the polls in PA.

Meanwhile, Rush, Hannity and even Chris Wallace (as a guest on Imus Thursday) won't let go of the Wright connection, throwing is grandmother under the bus, and now the "typical" white person remark.

I have absolutely no doubt that the Clintons would willingly take down the party and/or destroy any chance of any Democratic candidate to win in November in order to keep their campaign alive.

Grace is not in their being.

by Andrew Longman on Sat Mar 22nd, 2008 at 11:00:14 AM EST

Happy Good Friday | 15 comments (15 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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