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The Dead Parrot

by BooMan
Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:11:23 PM EST

...is apparently just pining for the fjords.

Bottom Line From The Clinton Spin Call...
...Is that if Clinton wins the popular vote in Ohio and Texas, she's staying in the race.
Even if she loses the delegate race in Texas.

Or, put another way...

ABC News' Kate Snow and Eloise Harper Report: Senator Hillary Clinton says she fully expects to win tomorrow and move on to Pennsylvania and the other states that hold contests beyond tomorrow’s big primary day.
“I’m just getting warmed up,” said a confident Clinton.
Clinton says she has just one measure of success tomorrow -- “Winning.” Asked several times what precisely would constitute a victory on Tuesday (would she need to win big? Win in all four states?) she returned to the same answer four times—“Winning. Winning. Winning. That’s my measure of success. Winning.”

There is only one end in sight for the Campaign of Magical Thinking, and that is if she does not win tomorrow. Here's my final verdict on the Clinton campaign:

"Um...now look...now look, mate, I've definitely 'ad enough of this. That parrot is definitely deceased, and when I purchased it not 'alf an hour ago, you assured me that its total lack of movement was due to it bein' tired and shagged out following a prolonged squawk."

Any further campaigning after tomorrow will be nothing more than a 'prolonged squawk'.

The Dead Parrot | 30 comments (30 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (4.00 / 3)

Look, matey, I know a dead campaign when I see one, and I'm looking at one right now.

No no her campaign's not dead, it's, it's restin'! ...

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"

by MikeInOhio (miken45054@yahoo.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:42:55 PM EST

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 0)

What's the weather report for tomorrow? Will it keep the old people home?

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:46:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (4.00 / 2)

Looks like the entire state is under a flood watch through tomorrow evening, and the northerly parts are under a winter storm warning (which we're oh so fortunate to be under here too) starting tomorrow afternoon.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:55:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 1)

It's ice isn't it? Not snow? Or am I wrong?

I guess I should look at a map to see where all the Ohio cities are and how many will be affected. (This election has been great for learning geography.

On election day here in Missouri we had terrible weather with flood warnings and tornadoes. But there was still huge turnout in the cities to pull Obama through. No ice though.

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:58:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 0)

Well, here it's going to be rain tonight, turning to freezing rain / ice early tomorrow, then eventually turning into snow. Which makes for pretty much the worst driving conditions imaginable.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 0)

yeah. That's what we have right now - just starting the freezing rain part. I'm ready for spring.

I hope it doesn't stop too many people from getting to the polls tomorrow in OH.

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:11:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 1)

I'm ready for spring too. Sooooo ready.

If you ask me we really need to re-evaluate this whole election schedule. Primaries in June, General in early September. That's what I'm talking about! Oh, and nobody is allowed to start campaigning until May.

Weather becomes less of a problem, and we aren't subjected to 2 years of election related crapola.

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:20:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wha???? (none / 0)

Then what will we blog about?

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wha???? (4.00 / 2)

Knowing what I know about the blogosphere, my guess would be about the need to expand the primary season :)

Tengo un sueño.

by ejmw (ewitham (at) umich (dot) edu) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:54:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wha???? (none / 0)

Issues.

Progressive Issues.

And holding to account the so-called progressives we elected who aren't working those issues for us.

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:42:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wha???? (none / 0)

this woman will probably win her primary tomorrow. Even though she voted for the Republican last time, she seems a lot like someone I know.

by BooMan on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:48:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wha???? (none / 0)

Who?

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:55:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 1)

There is not going to be anywhere in the state tomorrow that does not see heavy rains, snow or ice. Here in the south rain, with ice and snow north. It is going to be a typically crappy, soggy miserable Ohio day in early March.

The weather will likely have quite an impact where there is ice and snow. Weather Service says in Cleveland that "A SIGNIFICANT GLAZE OF ICE IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY".

So weather could play a major role for everyone, not just the old people. Have to see how things go. Weather could end up being the "twelfth man on the field". For whose side, it's hard to tell.

"Nothing in all the world is more dangerous than sincere ignorance and conscientious stupidity"

by MikeInOhio (miken45054@yahoo.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:35:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Dead? What do you mean dead ????? (none / 1)

C: Look, I took the liberty of examining that parrot when I got it home, and I discovered the only reason that it had been sitting on its perch in the first place was that it had been NAILED there.
(pause)
O: Well, o'course it was nailed there! If I hadn't nailed that bird down, it would have nuzzled up to those bars, bent 'em apart with its beak, and VOOM! Feeweeweewee!
C: "VOOM"?!? Mate, this bird wouldn't "voom" if you put four million volts through it! 'E's bleedin' demised!
O: No no! 'E's pining!
C: 'E's not pinin'! 'E's passed on! This parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! 'E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
'E's a stiff! Bereft of life, 'e rests in peace! If you hadn't nailed 'im to the perch 'e'd be pushing up the daisies!
'Is metabolic processes are now 'istory! 'E's off the twig!
'E's kicked the bucket, 'e's shuffled off 'is mortal coil, run down the curtain and joined the bleedin' choir invisibile!!
THIS IS AN EX-PARROT!!

by BooMan on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:51:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 1)

You can stick a fork in Jello to determine if it's done, but when you take the fork out, the Jello's none the worse for wear.

by Zandar1 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:13:49 PM EST

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 1)

This is arrogance, not tenacity.

I had hoped Obama would be able to make a bit of hay out of her NAFTA 'wink wink' comment by letting this morning's Canadian strong rebuttal demonstrate that anyone who relies on assumptions to promote judgments will indeed receive flawed results. She would deserve some blowback on her comment.

No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.

by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:26:35 PM EST

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 1)

It would seem that Obama has made as much progress as he has by avoiding the kind of negative, gotcha campaigning that Clinton has been using. I'm beginning to think that the American public's long fascination with "I know you are, but what am I?" politicking may finally be drawing to a close.

Personally, I don't need Barack Obama to tell me why Hillary Clinton sucks. She's managed to communicate that, if nothing else, tremendously effectively.

What I would like to hear from Obama is a little more specificity about what he'll do as president. I don't actually expect him to do so unless he performs poorly this week, since he really has nothing to gain by exposing himself to criticism while he's ahead in the game. I am generally encouraged by his behavior during the campaign so far, but just because he seems to be a decent guy doesn't mean he has either fresh ideas or the competence to pull them off. It looks like we'll have to find out the hard way.

---Cthulhu for President: Why vote for the lesser evil?

by eodell (eodell at naqada dot org) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:36:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

Good points.
I'm at my best listening to him when he reaches for clarity rather than gottcha but she's still hammering this afternoon on the NAFTA memo.

No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.

by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:34:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

Of course she is.

I've told you all along that if Obama wants to knock her out of the race he has to win in Texas and Ohio. Lately it has looked likely that a win in only one of those states would knock her out, but I've never been sure. Ohio is an important state for this fall.

And a win means a popular vote win. A delegate win won't be a knockout.

This isn't about Hillary right now. It's about Obama and whether he can do what it takes.

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:35:38 PM EST

Re: The Dead Parrot (4.00 / 2)

looks like Gov. Bill Richardson has had it with Hillary. Seems he kinda endorsed Obama.

TPM
Richardson Criticizes Hillary's "Red Phone" Ad Hitting Obama; Praises His Judgment

"Whoever has the most delegates after Tuesday, a clear lead, should be, in my judgment, the nominee," Richardson said.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 03:53:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

I have to suggest that the Obama campaign has revived all of those blue collar Reagan Democrats in Pennsylvania, and that in the end racism will win the day. If Hillary gets beyond Ohio and Texas, then she is counting on the PA vote to push her into the nomination.

It didn't work in SC, but it might in PA.

by shergald on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:00:50 PM EST

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

After reading the conflicting poll numbers today, I'm nervous. Oh for the campaign to end.
One or two pollsters will have some egg on their faces.

Hillary will crow over the pop vote even by 1%. She had requested Texas to delay the results of the caucus vote by 2 days.

Goes to her character. Love the cartoon at head of this piece.

Financial Times: Hillary Clinton gets it sincerely wrong

This truth about the human condition applies with particular force to politics. Mrs Clinton tries hard to fake sincerity - so hard it is painful to watch. Sometimes, in fact, I suspect that she really is sincere and only looks as though she is faking. Barack Obama, on the other hand, may actually be sincere - and if he is not, he fakes it so well it makes no difference. Elections are won and lost formany reasons, but if I had to point to just one in the present case, this would be it.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:20:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 1)

If Obama wins by blowout margins in 10 states consecutively, those wins don't count.If,however, Hillary squeaks by in Ohio and loses in Texas, it shows that she is "tough" and so should be our candidate.

How much more sense of entitlement can she show without approaching the boundless arrogance of a Bush?

by KlatooBaradaNikto (easwar7@aol.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 10:24:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

If one is to believe the latest polls, hill has become rejuvinated! Now, I don't want to sound too cynical but if you are desirous of making as much money as you can and if your profits are directly connected to "RATINGS" then what gets you the biggest ratings- A NEVER ENDING PRIMARY!!!!!
Too Cynical? Maybe not. We will see. Given the early vote numbers being reported and given the fact that these "latest polls" can't include the early voting, Some stinks!!!!!!!

by billjpa (billjpa@aol.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:04:56 PM EST

Link to polls (none / 0)

.
Will the undecided Texas voter choose the underdog or try to go with the winner? Too close to call. The advantage for Obama is the two vote system in Texas with a caucus vote.

Insider/Advantage poll

March 3, 2008 -- A new InsiderAdvantage/Majority Opinion Research poll of Texas runs contrary to most surveys of the state's Democratic presidential contest. We show Sen. Hillary Clinton with the lead. Only PPP, a Democratic polling firm based in North Carolina, also shows Clinton leading. All other polls over the race's final days have Obama leading.

InsiderAdvantage CEO Matt Towery: "Moreover, in an entirely separate survey that we conducted of early voters, Clinton led by a 55%-to-43% margin. While much of this early vote is probably accounted for in the poll cited above - because we ask the inclusive question, 'If the election were held today?,' the separate survey that measured Clinton's clear edge among early voters may help explain Clinton's overall edge in our poll."

RealClearPolitics.com

"But I will not let myself be reduced to silence."

by Oui on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 04:38:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

It seems we had some pretty large movements over the weekend. I'm wondering, knowing that Obama tends to outperform the polls by a good amount, do you think there could be a weekend effect in Ohio that is causing Obama's tally to be undercounted?

Also, some of the demographic trends on these polls don't make a lot of sense, as in today's SUSA. How does Clinton win Cleveland and Cinci? The former is over 50% AA, the latter over 40%. Those percentages should be much higher when we look at Democrats.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 05:00:02 PM EST

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

How does Clinton win Cleveland and Cinci?

Same way she wins anything: Diebold.

Kill because somebody was killed. Get killed because he killed. Do you think peace will ever come like that?

by Egarwaen on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 05:09:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

SUSA did the same thing in Missouri. I looked at the last poll and they showed Hillary ahead in St. Louis and I knew that couldn't be right. She did pretty much as SUSA expected in all other parts of the state but Obama won Missouri by winning St. Louis City/County.

I don't know Cleveland or Cinci well enough to know whether SUSA is underestimating Obama's performance in those cities too.

Help me raise money for Jay Nixon, the next Democratic governor of Missouri

by maryb2004 on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 05:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Dead Parrot (none / 0)

Ah, interesting. Thanks. That's what I was wondering. I'm wondering if this is going to be California or Missouri, because we, once again, have Zogby and SUSA facing off. Each got one right. It'll be interesting.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 06:38:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the "spin call" & polling (none / 0)

The "..if he doesn't win all the primaries" comment took spin into warp drive -- once again. It never seems to occur to her cadre of consultants that stretching credulity can backfire.

On the same subject -- Stephanie Tubbs-Jones just accused the Obama campaign of "arrogance" for suggesting that Clinton should leave after tomorrow if she has no realistic chance of winning. I've referred to this technique, i.e., 'accusing your opponent of doing what you do' as the "Rove technique."

Segueing to another issue, of Texas and Ohio polling -- one mostly overlooked issue is the way these polling results will, and have, translated into reality. One factor is the variable delegate count for Congressional districts in Texas. The math can get a little complicated, which is why no one wants to make quantitative projections on this. I realize this isn't news to most of you, but Obama's strength in high delegate CDs translates into more delegates than Clinton's strength in low delegate CDs. Therefore, popular vote totals for Texas tend to mislead people.

Both primary and caucus systems are an attempt to represent non-voting citizens in the process. At the state level, delegate numbers reflect the population of entire state. Gauging the amount of voters represented by the total population is one philosophy, another -- which Texas does in part -- is to have delegate totals reflect the amount of Democratic turnout. Rather than exaggerate the influence of Democrats in red districts, Texas bases Democratic CD delegate counts on previous Democratic turnout.

The other problem with polling lately relates to turnout and the likely voter models pollsters use. Well-defined populations are easy to estimate through sampling, but turnout has repeatedly exceeded records, and likely voter models are based on these now outmoded norms for turnout. There are a lot of other problems with the polls, such as the divergence between polls on demographics, so there is reason to question their validity at this point in the process.

Tomorrow's results should increase Obama's delegate lead, and there's almost no justification for a continuing Clinton campaign if their objective is to win. I expect that losses in Wyoming and Mississippi will dampen post-Tuesday enthusiasm. If they stay in till Pennsylvania, there's going to be a lot of examination of their motives during the interim period.

ad bellum purificandum - Kenneth Burke

by colinski on Mon Mar 3rd, 2008 at 10:22:03 PM EST

The Dead Parrot | 30 comments (30 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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