So I'm having lunch with an old friend from the Clinton administration today, a veteran of the '92 and '96 campaigns and top-notch political operative, a true-blue Hillary loyalist who has maxed out to her campaign, took time off to go to Iowa for the last two weeks, helped out in the Potomac primary, etc. She is feeling guilty about not being in Ohio or Texas for these last few days, bemoaning the way the campaign has gone, talking emotionally about what a great President that Hillary would be.

At some point, I gently ask the question that has been on my mind for awhile: even if you get good news tonight, is there any scenario you see for a Hillary nomination that doesn't involve a really, really ugly endgame? You know, a nasty credentials fight, high-pressure arm-twisting and unseemly deal-cutting with superdelegates, continued trashing of Obama on every imaginable topic?

There was silence across the table. She said, "No, I can't think of any other way at this point."

There's no doubt that Clinton has been moving up over the last several days. Yet, her campaign isn't acting like a winning campaign. First, Mark Penn tried to redefine reality:

As the campaign faces a make-or-break moment, some high-level officials are trying to play down their role in the campaign. Penn said in an e-mail over the weekend that he had "no direct authority in the campaign," describing himself as merely "an outside message advisor with no campaign staff reporting to me."

"I have had no say or involvement in four key areas -- the financial budget and resource allocation, political or organizational sides. Those were the responsibility of Patti Solis Doyle, Harold Ickes and Mike Henry, and they met separately on all matters relating to those areas."

That didn't win him any friends in the Clinton campaign. In fact, they appear ready to throw Penn out of the campaign regardless of what happens tonight.

Terry McAuliffe, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton’s (D-N.Y.) presidential campaign chairman, said Tuesday that top pollster Mark Penn should stop talking to the press after remarks from Penn indicated that he is distancing himself from the campaign.

“People ought to quit talking to the press and focus on helping Hillary win,” McAuliffe said on MSNBC in response to a question about Penn’s remarks...

McAuliffe, who was his usual optimistic self Tuesday and predicted wins in Ohio, Texas and Rhode Island, said the Penn issue would be addressed following Tuesday’s key primaries.

“When we get through with Texas and Ohio, I’ll go back and I’ll talk to Maggie Williams, our campaign manager, about that,” McAuliffe said.

Sounds an awful like what Stephanie Tubbs-Jones had to say about Mark Penn on the Tucker Carlson Show last night.

I don't know what will happen tonight, but it looks like even in a best case scenario for the Clintons there is going to be some shakeups in her campaign.