Booman Tribune

On the Ground in PA

by BooMan
Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:06:02 PM EST

The latest polls show Obama trailing in Pennsylvania by six (Quinnipiac), nine (Rasmussen), and fourteen points (SurveyUSA). That leaves Pollster.com with an average of: Clinton 48.2% Obama 42.5%. Over at CQ Politics their district by district analysis shows Clinton emerging with a net three delegates. She would gain more for winning the popular vote, but they project a small net gain of delegates. It's hard for me to tell whether Obama is behind by six or behind by fourteen because in this area (the Southeast) he is doing very well. In fact, I project that CQ Politics is wrong about District 1 (South and central Philadelphia; Chester) and District 7 (Suburban Philadelphia — most of Delaware County). I think Obama will get a 5-2 split in the First and win the Seventh, earning him a 4-3 edge. And, while CQ Politics projects a 7-2 split in the Second District, a 8-1 split is not completely out of the question.

On the other hand, CQ Politics projects that Clinton will not reach the 62.5% needed to turn any of the four delegate districts into 3-1 splits in her favor. If she really is ahead statewide by nine-fourteen points, it must be because she is doing significantly better than 62.5% in some of these smaller districts. And not that it matters for the delegate splits, but I believe Obama, not Clinton, will win District 5 (North central — State College) and District Six (Southeast — parts of Berks and Chester counties, Philadelphia suburbs).

My observation on the race is that Obama's momentum seems to have stalled, but he isn't weakening. He seems poised to lose by about ten points based on the polls, but he could close it to a deadheat with a good debate performance tomorrow night. I think he will outperform the polls by about three points because of high turnout in the Philly area and a superior groundgame. He could do even better than three points. But unless I see polls consistently showing him within six points, I will not be predicting victory here.



Display:
I won't offer any prediction on the outcome of the PA primary, except this--  If Hillary manages even a one-point win, it will be spun by the media as a tremendous victory against all odds, and further evidence that this race needs to go all the way to the convention.  You can take that to the bank...
by eagleye on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:18:11 PM EST
yep.  Although there will be a tinge of reality-based commentary mixed in.
by BooMan on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:46:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]
6 days to go...an eternity in politics. Clinton needs to win by 20-points and she'll over-reach by the "bitter" ad...get to crow she's ahead and Obama can't win.

Hope these comments by John Baer Philly.com is what will prevail:

Decades of working-class neglect - now that's insulting

[.] As a native-born, small-town Pennsylvanian, a son of native-born, small-town Pennsylvania parents - one from the coal region, one from Lancaster County - let me assure you that the so-called offensive, condescending things Barack Obama said about the people I come from are basically right on target.

"Bitter" perhaps best describes my late mother, an angry Irish Catholic who absolutely clung to her religion.

Dad, also a journalist, wasn't really bitter as far as I know, but he sure liked to hunt.

So, despite carping from Hillary Clinton and annoying yapping from her surrogates (really, it's like turning on the lights at night in a puppy farm), I take no offense.

What's offensive to me is suggesting that small-town, working-class, gun-toting and/or religious Pennsylvanians are somehow injured by a politician's words.

Are you kidding me?

They're injured all right, but the injury is long-term and from lots more than "just words."

They've been injured from decades of neglect by political cultures in Washington and Harrisburg driven by special interests.[.]



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:20:31 PM EST
I don't know how clinton gets away with this "friend of the working class" bullshit.

The policies she and her husband championed are fucking RESPONSIBLE for us being in the dire straits we're in.

Brendan Calling John Mccain

by brendan on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, it happened in Ohio as well. The Clintons are masters of portraying themselves as something they're not - just see Bill Clinton's 1992 campaign, then compare it to how he governed.
by PsiFighter37 on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:56:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
looks like only pundits are making a to-do of bitter-gate. (HT; The Daily Dish - Andrew Sullivan)

Mediacurves: Obama's Explanation of "Controversial" Remarks Moves Democrats and Independents

-- Among All Parties: More than Half Agree with His Comments --

Flemington, NJ, April 14, 2008 - A new national study among 843 self-reported Democrats, Republicans and independents, indicated that Senator Obama's explanation for his recent controversial remarks, successfully addressed criticism, especially among Democrats and independents.

The study was conducted by HCD Research earlier today to obtain Americans' perceptions of video segments from  Senator Obama's speech in Indiana yesterday, in which he addressed controversial comments that he made during a fundraiser in San Francisco on April 6.

go view the details



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:55:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I read the CQ Politics analysis; it's way too conservative on its analysis for Clinton in Northeast and Western PA. I don't think Obama can break 8-1 in CD-2 (that's 83.3%); if he does, he would probably take the district 9-0.

The only way the CQ analysis is correct is if Obama closes to about 5% of Clinton - which I would love to see but don't think is realistically possible.

by PsiFighter37 on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:56:01 PM EST
Let's do an experiment using your analysis and the internals from today's Quinnipiac Poll:

White voters for Clinton 57 - 37 percent, compared to 56 - 38 percent last week;
# Black voters back Obama 86 - 8 percent, compared to 75 - 17 percent

Let's split the undecideds evenly and let's assign all non-blacks to the white category.

That leaves us with:

Blacks: Obama 89-11
Non-Blacks: Clinton 60-40

Then let's plug the numbers into district 1 and 2.

District 1

Black population: 45.7%
Non black population: 54.3%

Projected numbers:

Obama 62.3%
Clinton 37.7%

District 2

Black population: 61%
Non-black population: 39%

Projected numbers:

Obama: 69.9%
Clinton: 30.1%

However, the white population of both district 1 and 2 is way more pro-Obama than the white population of the state as a whole.  District 2 has Penn and Drexel, District 1 has parts of center city.

Obama should do better than these numbers, even  assuming there isn't increased black turnout, which there will be.

It is not hard for me to see Obama getting over 80% in the second and over 70% in the first.

by BooMan on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:27:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Have we all seen this new web-ad from Obama yet? It's clever.

by RandyH on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 12:58:36 PM EST
As soon as I saw the start of that, I was thinking about her pro-lobbyist remarks last summer...not surprised to see they made it in.
by CabinGirl on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:04:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Lookie here: Lanny Davis makes a retraction of sorts.

Lanny Davis' Op-ed on Rev. Wright gets a real smackdown.

Davis backs away a tad

On April 9, 2008,  I had an op-ed column published in the Wall Street Journal that respectfully raised questions about Senator Obama's response to some of Rev. Jeremiah Wright's sermons and urged the Senator to address (or re-address) these questions now rather than later.

The op-ed was also re-published here on the AC360 Blog, TheHill.com (the original host of my "Pundits Blog" commentaries), the Huffington Post.com,  and elsewhere.

It drew a considerable reaction, pro and con, sent to me by e-mail or posted as comments on these and other web sites.

One e-mail sent to me moved me the most, giving me a better understanding of Senator Obama's reaction to Rev. Wright's sermons.  While not answering all my concerns, it still opened my mind and heart much more than before.

It came from a highly respected attorney from New York City, Mr. Jeh Johnson, who happens to be an African-American.  Jeh is a strong and steadfast supporter of Senator Obama. I have known of and admired Jeh from afar for many years. He also admires Senator and President Clinton and served with me in the Clinton Administration.

After reading Jeh's e-mail, I responded and thanked him for sending it to me. I then asked him if I could re-publish it on the blog sites that published my op-ed piece, and he consented.

Please see below and take the time to read it carefully.

go take a read of Mr.Jeh Johnson's email. See why Davis, the smock, has a better understanding

quote:

A good friend to me from my parent's generation, a retired ivy-league professor who is like an uncle to me, was branded a dangerous radical and subversive by our government in the 1960s. J. Edgar Hoover wiretapped his conversations with Dr. King. But, if someone combed his books and found something he wrote with which I disagreed, I'd rather disassociate myself from my right arm than publicly renounce this man.

The reality is this: Those of us who participate in both the white and African-American experiences will very likely have a Jeremiah Wright in our lives - it could be our teacher, our uncle, our brother, our father, or our pastor. It is simply part of the American experience.

But, here I am, a patriot who - I can honestly say - harbors no "anger" or racial animosity toward anybody, including my white law partners, my white neighbors, or my white family members. I can't guarantee much about anything in life, but I can guarantee, from what I know about Barack Obama, that he feels the same in his heart and soul.




Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:01:53 PM EST
In this case, the animosity is harbored by those who oppose Senator Obama.

Fear will keep the local systems in line. -Grand Moff Tarkin Survivor Left Blogistan
by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:05:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think all will depend on whether Obama manages to turn this nonsense around the way he did with the Wright hysteria. He'll probably be torn because he's timid about going all out populist, yet his strongest response to the "elitist" meme would require redefining the term to point at the corporate/government special interests who have done so much to ruin life in rural America. He would contrast the fatcats who contribute to Clinton against the regular folks who make up his bench of small donors. He would explain that he has heard the anger and the hope in rural America and, just as with inner-city people, knows that we need to hear that anger and do what needs to be done to give hope back its power to change this country.

He would have to point out how the Republican Party has consistently betrayed its rural supporters, whether by farm policy that drives out family farms in favor of corporate land grabs, or by failing to assure equal internet access, or by making rural areas dumping grounds for corporate and government polluters, or by sabotaging every effort to wean the country away from petroleum's energy monopoly. He would have to admit the the Democratic Party has often ignored the concerns of rural citizens for far too long, and that his mission is to heal the phony divide between rural and urban.

He's turned attack into treasure in the past, so I think if anyone can do it again, it's him. If he decides to keep on telling the truth instead of backing away, I believe he can still win in PA.

Bush is "the first President to admit to an impeachable offense." --Former Nixon counsel John Dean

by DaveW on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:38:53 PM EST
Pundits should shut up.... maybe they will, as the Pope's plane lands this afternoon. Obama is extending his national lead over Clinton:

(via TPM)

Today's Gallup Poll: Obama Has His Biggest Lead Yet, No "Small Town" Damage

Today's Gallup tracking poll gives Barack Obama an 11-point lead over Hillary Clinton, his widest margin ever in Gallup's polling. Here are the numbers, compared to yesterday:

    Obama   51% (+1)
     Clinton   40% (+0)

The poll was conducted entirely after the "small town" controversy first erupted, a further indication that the whole flap has yet to actually harm Obama's poll numbers.



Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 02:05:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have a question about these polls and maybe it has been  discussed here before but do people actually call people's cell phones? I want to think no. This would mean stronger numbers for Obama since most of his young supporters do not use a land line and Hillary's strong blue hair vote is able to answer these calls.

"The heart of darkness is the president. Nobody knows what he thinks, even the people who work for him."
by Mac G on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 01:49:17 PM EST
read here, a roundup of polls. No significant effect the 'small town' commentt wotking people understand, are not insulted. only elitist are.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"
by idredit on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 02:22:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I think some are just starting to develop strategies to contact by cell and a couple are doing so.  But it is very difficult to do.
by BooMan on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 03:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]
They also massage the data to match what they know to be   the demographics of "likely voters" .

In other word if their calls reach X percent of one type of voter, but they know that that type of voter makes up Y percent of the historical voter population, then they adjust their results accordingly.

If younger voters are under-represented in the sample because they are hard to reach by land line, they will be given additional weight than a larger sample of blue-hairs waiting by the phone while watching CSpan.

Where this has been tricky this season is younger voters tend to say one thing and then not bother to vote, so they weren't given as much extra weight even if the sample size was smaller. In this election season they have been turning out like crazy in ways that still challenges the pollsters

by Andrew Longman on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 05:12:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I concur with one of the Kossacks: Obama should bring a milkshake with him to the debate and, whenever Bittergate comes up, sip from it while looking at Hillary the whole time.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.
by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Apr 15th, 2008 at 02:47:31 PM EST


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