Booman Tribune

Will the Pundits Say This? Clinton Must Win By 25

by Captain Future
Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 03:06:08 AM EST

Whatever the ultimate meaning of the results in the PA primary, Tuesday night the TV pundits will be making their judgments based on the percentage of victory.

Both campaigns are trying to set expectations, but clearly the Clinton campaign must regard any margin of victory as a huge vindication, and a reason to go on.

But an analysis on Bloomberg.com should bring a little reality check to the meaning of PA. Many have pointed out that it is almost impossible for Clinton to surpass Obama in elected delegates.  But one factor some in her campaign have suggested might break her way is the popular vote.  The Bloomberg report looks at that.  And it's conclusions are devastating.    

Even if the New York senator wins by more than 20 percentage points tomorrow -- a landslide few experts expect -- she would still have a hard time catching him."

The story goes into excruciating detail of what that means:

Clinton would need a 25-point victory in Pennsylvania, plus 20-point wins in later contests in West Virginia, Kentucky and Puerto Rico. Even that scenario assumes Clinton, 60, would break even in Indiana, North Carolina, South Dakota, Montana and Oregon -- a prospect that's not at all certain.

More than just big margins, Clinton would need record voter turnout too. In Pennsylvania, she would need a turnout of 2 million, about half the state's registered Democrats; in the 2004 primary, about 800,000 voted. She would also need turnout to almost double in other states where she leads, and reach some 1 million in Puerto Rico, which is about how many Democratic- leaning voters went to the polls in a 2004 gubernatorial election.

That's more than a mountain to climb--that's walking to the moon. And maybe without shoes--because the one bit of news Sunday night was the fundraising numbers the campaigns had to file by midnight. According to official numbers, Obama started April with $42.5 million cash for the primaries. A spokesperson for the Clinton campaign there said they started April with about $8 million it could spend on primaries.

So what are the pundits going to say Monday and Tuesday? That she needs a 10 point victory, or any victory to stay in? Or are they going to say that realistically she needs a 25 point victory in PA?



Display:
from The Financial Times, US Edition

Cash becomes Clinton's Achilles heel

Hillary Clinton needs a big win in Pennsylvania on Tuesday if she is to raise enough cash to keep her campaign on the road, according to election analysts and a breakdown of her own filings to the Federal Election Commission.

Mrs Clinton, who had just $8.6m (€5.4m, £4.3m) of cash on hand at the beginning of the month compared with $42.5m for Barack Obama, has been spending an average of roughly $1m a day in the past few weeks, according to independent estimates.

[.]

"I have long thought that money - or lack of it - could end up being the deciding factor in this Democratic race," said Bill Galston, a senior fellow at Brookings and a veteran of Democratic presidential campaigns. "If Senator Clinton does not win by a large enough margin in Pennsylvania then there have to be serious questions about whether she can continue."

Mrs Clinton's financial picture looks even worse when debt is included. Her campaign is more than $10m in the red, more than half of which is owed to the polling firm of which Mark Penn, her former senior strategist, is a partner.

In contrast, Mr Obama's online fund-raising machine can go back repeatedly to small donors who have donated well below the legal limit. Forty per cent of the $235m that Mr Obama has raised since the start of the campaign has come in sums of $200 or less, compared with 23 per cent of the $189m that Mrs Clinton has raised.

Election analysts say that Mrs Clinton would need to win by at least a double-digit margin in Pennsylvania on Tuesday to instill enough confidence in new donors that her campaign is still worth funding.

"There is no question that Mrs Clinton has to perform very well in Pennsylvania to continue to raise money to carry on," said Sheila Krumholz, head of The Center for Responsive Politics, which monitors election funding. "This is really the crunch moment for her campaign."

[.]

Mr Obama is more than 800,000 votes ahead of Mrs Clinton overall and has a lead of roughly 150 delegates in the pledged delegate count. Barring a series of improbably crushing defeats, Mr Obama is likely to be ahead on both counts at the end of the primary calendar on June 3.

Cash is Hillary's achilles heel. The HRC campaign is broke, desperate and today , they've deployed the Bin Laden card.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 05:53:08 PM EST


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