Booman Tribune

My Pennsylvania Prediction

by Steven D
Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 08:09:55 AM EST

It's showdown time for the Democrats (for the umpteenth time) this Tuesday in Pennsylvania. So here's my prediction of what will happen tomorrow. A few caveats, however. I'm not a pollster, I'm not a campaign adviser, I'm not a "journalist," I'm not a native or transplanted Pennsylvanian (though I have visited Scranton, Pittsburgh, Erie and Philadelphia and stopped at numerous highway rest stops and small town fast food restaurants there over the last 20 years). I'm also not a pundit who appears on cable TV or gets to make the occasional appearance on Real Time with Bill Maher (his show on HBO) to laugh at Bill's jokes. I don't make money from blogging or shouting down people on my talk radio show.

However, like all of the above mentioned folks, I can make shit up with the best of them if I want to, and I can pull imaginary ponies out of my ass. Thus I feel eminently qualified in the 21st Century to tell you, the little people who don't really matter (at least if you voted for Obama) what's going to happen. I mean, everyone else is, so I might as well, too.

So here it is, what you've all been waiting for, my bullshit opinion well informed analysis of who will win the Pennsylvania Democratic Primary:

Hillary Clinton by less than 10% but slightly more than 5% of the votes cast.

Here's what else will happen tomorrow night:

(cont.)

At her pro forma post-primary "I'm the winner!" speech, Hillary will declare a "major victory" in an "important state," and announce she is staying in the race all the way to the convention. She will also mention her victory is proof that Pennsylvanians aren't "bitter" and like a woman who can shoot a gun. There will be a comparison of herself to Rocky Balboa. Again. When interviewed, James Carville will call everyone who supports Obama a traitor, but especially Bill Richardson.

All the cable networks will carry the Clinton speech in it's entirety. They'll also break away from Obama's speech after the first two minutes of it.

Someone (Brit Hume? Sean Hannity?) at Fox News will claim that this proves John McCain will win in November. Someone else will claim this just goes to show that attacks on Obama's patriotism and his associations with Rev. Wright and other leftist terrorists (Ayers! Ayers! Ayers!) will doom his electoral chances should he become the "Democrat" nominee. Someone else will call him Barrack Hussein Osama -- several times (Ann Coulter?). Brit Hume will make a face somewhere between a sneer and the look one gets when you step in dog doo-doo, and then apologize to Senator Obama (but only after a decent interval, say 20 minutes to an hour later).

Chris Matthews at MsNBC will say Pennsylvania has given Clinton the "Big Mo" back, and that the fact she lied about being under sniper fire when she visited Tuzla (and he will mention it, more than once) obviously didn't hurt her. He'll also claim Pennsylvania shows that good honest working people (i.e., white people) won't vote for Obama because he's too elitist. He'll proclaim that Clinton's campaign is back on track, and will now start to pressure the super delegates even harder to declare for her since Obama is so unelectable in the big Rust Belt states. Oh, and he'll say John McCain was the real winner tomorrow.

Rachel Maddow will try to mention that, since Obama trailed Clinton by over twenty percent in Pa only 6 weeks ago, Clinton's victory is actually a hollow one since she couldn't beat him big in a state where she was supposed to win big, and that she won't really pick up that many more actual delegates, but Chris Matthews will essentially tell her to STFU and then cut to a commercial. After the break Pat Buchanan will claim that a black man simply can't be elected in America because white people won't vote for him. Keith Olbermann will turn several shades of red but won't say what he really believes in response (i.e., that Buchanan is a fricking racist!). This will give Matthews a chance to step in and pose the question whether Pat thinks America is ready to vote for a woman like Hillary with all her baggage (just to be fair and balanced).

CNN (wolf Blitzer?) will now claim Clinton is in the catbird seat to win the nomination if she can win in Indiana or North Carolina, and that even if she can't Obama's hopes this Fall have been fatally weakened. Oh, and that John McCain is the real winner in Pennsylvania. Everyone will agree with Wolf, except Jack Cafferty, but since he always sounds cranky, the rest of the CNN pundits will treat him like their crazy uncle and gently humor him. Besides, the CNN producers will only allot Jack about 30 seconds to speak, anyway. Larry King will just look old.

Obama (in his concession speech which no one will be watching since the cable nets will only show snippets of it) will be gracious, but will also point out that he did well in a state in which Clinton led by 20% six short weeks ago, that he still commands an overwhelming lead in pledged delegates, that he respects Senator Clinton, blah, blah, blah. Meanwhile his organization will move on and work even harder in Indiana and North Carolina.

Howard Dean will say "Oh Shit!" but only in private. In public, he'll plaster a smile on his face and repeat his call/plea for the race for the Democratic nomination to be decided before the convention. The Clinton campaign will attack Dean for trying to defeat the will of the people.

John McCain will say he doesn't believe that it's appropriate for him to comment on the Democratic race, that he respects both Senators Clinton and Obama immensely, and that both are true American patriots whose vision of how to solve the many problems we face is very different than his own. He'll then add that Obama's loss Tuesday proves that the major issue in the presidential campaign will be Iraq and the "War on Terror," and that whichever Democrat he faces in the Fall will be much less qualified to be the Commander-in-Chief, to win in Iraq and to keep America safe from the terrorists. Note: McCain might not mention that last part himself, but trust me, one of his surrogates will.

Naturally, I could be completely wrong about all of the above. Well, except for the parts where the media says it's all good for McCain and Clinton saying she's staying in the race all the way to the convention. Those are sort of givens.

So be happy Obama supporters. When have I ever been right before about this election stuff?



Display:
I think I might be taking this primary season a little too personally: last night I dreamed that Hillary won the PA primary by 36% points...

Can't I just go back to dreaming about George Clooney?

"Don't waste your time on the clowns, watch the real show"

by Second Nature on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 08:39:39 AM EST
Wouldn't Clooney make a great Vice president?

Obama is a Patriot
by Steven D on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 08:40:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I can't even wrap my mind around the handsomeness of an Obama/Clooney ticket...

"Don't waste your time on the clowns, watch the real show"
by Second Nature on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:17:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
by refinish69 (refinish69 at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:39:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
LOL :)

"Don't waste your time on the clowns, watch the real show"
by Second Nature on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:49:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the swooning would be intolerable.
by BooMan on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:41:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
hey I'd love to go for some superficial swooooooooning after having to look at bush/cheney for the last 8 years.(and Rummy, the Rovester, Laura aka the Joker, Creepy Condi and the rest of that unlovely cabal)

'Poverty is the worst form of violence'--Gandhi
by chocolate ink on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 03:59:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My prediction is that Obama makes it real close (within 3%) and or wins. Hillary throws in the towel. Bush sees this as the signal to bomb Iran (to protect Afghani or Iraqi border integrity or some other bushshit). Obama (or Hillary) vs. McCain isn't so promising a match-up for the Dems under those conditions. 4+ more years of repugs.

Viva Presidente Ezequiel - Aquí no hay quien viva!
by anarchronarchist (mincers (-at-) hotmail (-dot-) com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 08:46:56 AM EST
But my gut tells me Hillary pulls it by a spread of roughly 8%.  I can't break it down by precinct but that's my best guess.  Personally, I like your figures better.

The Wages of Sin is about $5.15 an Hour
by hz on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 03:30:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, since we are tossing around possible scenarios, here is mine.

Obama wins big, say five to ten percent.

Hillary throws in the towel and graciously bows out.

With a terrific surge, Obama goes way ahead of McCain the insane in all political polls.

Bush and Cheney, terrified of an electoral tsunami in the fall and potential trials as war criminals, atttack Iran.

Martial law is declared and Bush with his neo-con allies and the backing of the US Army tries for ultimate power so he can better protect the American people from terrorists and save himself from prosecution.

The Air Force rides the fence while the US Navy with the Marine Corps at battle alert prepares to defend the Constitution.

America is on the brink of a nuclear civil war.  The human species trembles in the balance.

The anti-Christ appears, so does the Jewish Messiah. Is it the end or a new beginning?

Tune in----next comment.

The child within is - - -divine.

Follow your bliss

by Ignod on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:06:44 AM EST
as was predicted by the prophet.
Actually, I won't be at all surprised if this is exactly how the scenario unfolds.  But you did leave out Joe Scarborough, who will gloat for days over this "big win" for Clinton, and then proceed to say how great Chelsea is.
Paul Krugman will write an op-ed in the NYT's calling Obama's followers cultists and his health care plan a bust, not like Hillary's, of which he, in his wisdom, approves.  David Brooks will crow that Obama elitist and out of touch.  William Kristol will chime in that the problem is that Obama is just too conceited, and everybody just hates that.
So much for the "liberal" media: MSBNC and the New York Times.  With friends like this who needs enemies?
by CarolynC on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:19:24 AM EST
I forgot to mention that Maureen Dowd will write a column accusing Obama of being effete, and just a bit gay, because he drinks orange juice and is a terrible bowler.
by CarolynC on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:24:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the part where Rachel Maddow hands Morning Joe his butt yet again? Maybe we'll be treated to another spectacle of him walking out on a panel.

The avalanche has started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote. -- Ambassador Kosh
by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 02:23:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
HRC has today and tonight's tv covered: this morning on Joe Scarborough, Wolfson appeared and they cheered the new ARG poll that had Obama down 14 pts in PA; tonight we have HRC on Countdown then she polishes off the evening over at Larry King.
Obama is set to be on Jon Stewart.
Have to admit she knows how to maneuver and I'm not looking forward to any bombshells she decides to drop tonight that can't be answered before the vote begins.


No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.
by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:40:48 AM EST
Countdown with Keith Olbermann might not be a wise chose for Hillary for an interview.  I am hoping Keith brings up her scorched earth campaign and nails her for it.

Doing My Part For The Left,Left Of The Rainbow
by refinish69 (refinish69 at gmail dot com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:46:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]
One can only hope. After Keith's Special Comment on her, despite their longtime friendship, she knows she's walking into a minimalized Spin Zone, but if I had to bet I'd say she's going to get her licks in.

New Public Policy Poll out this morning. PA   Obama 49 Clinton 46.

No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.

by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 10:00:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Can't help but note that Clinton campaign filing for April shows that she's $10.3 million in debt - it doesn't take a business person to note that she's using the 'little people vendors' as her bank.

It would be nice if someone pointed out that Hillary's campaign finances have been and still are funded on the backs of small business.


No Hillary, you were outspent by the people not the Obama campaign.

by mainsailset (rideback@gmail.com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 09:46:39 AM EST
But since we've seen the same exact thing play out in about 4 states now, you know you're not.

This is utterly brilliant.  It was like I was there.

Blogging While Brown Convention Atlanta, GA July 25-27, 2008

by fabooj (fabooj [at} mail [dot} com) on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 10:05:43 AM EST
My prediction is that Hillary wins by at least 10 points. all the numbers are going her way, and Zogby said this morning that the undecided voters are breaking for Hillary.

Final result
Clinton 56%
Obama 44%

Onward we go!!!!

Why is it that both parties are so intent on screaming at each other, rather than trying to find solutions to this country's massive problems??

by eastcoastmoderate on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 10:27:53 AM EST
Because the Republicans are the CAUSE of this country's massive problems. They do not want to fix them. They want to cause even more harm to America for the sake of their private gain.
by The Voice In The Wilderness on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 07:13:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Tuesday's Election Will be 'Unrecountable, Unverifiable, and Unauditable'...

....As always the great BradBlog reminds us that what ever the "effing" machines say about who won we just have to believe on faith.

...Most of the votes, more than 85%, will be cast on such DRE systems which do not provide so-called "Voter Verified Paper Audit Trails" (VVPATs), as their use has been found unconstitutional in the state, since its been determined, accurately, that ballot secrecy cannot be guaranteed when using such paper trail systems

...Hell of a way to run a Democracy!

"Wonderful things can happen when you plant the seeds of distrust in a garden of Assholes" -- Elmore Leonard

by Blue Shark on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 06:40:54 PM EST
And Gov. Rendell supports Hillary. Well, I know which way to bet.
by The Voice In The Wilderness on Mon Apr 21st, 2008 at 07:21:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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