Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

This Could Be a Nailbiter

by BooMan
Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:40:58 PM EST

In the 2004 exit polls for Pennsylvania, Kerry won 84% of the black vote and blacks made up 14% of the electorate. Obviously, blacks make up a higher percentage of the electorate in Democratic primary where Republicans and Independents cannot vote than in a general election. So, why did all the pollsters estimate today's black vote to be between 13%-18%?

The surveys show more variation on some characteristics than others. Most, for example, show the percentage of women as somewhere between 55% and 58%, and most show the African-American percentage as somewhere in the mid-teens. Of course, with Barack obama expected to receive 80% to 90% of the black vote, the difference between an African American composition of 13% and 18% can alter Obama's vote total by 3 to 4 points.

The early exit polls are actually showing Obama winning 92% of the black vote. Both that number and the likelihood that high black turnout will lead to a larger percentage of the overall electorate than 19% lead me to believe that the polls underestimated Obama's support significantly.

As far as I can tell, the contest is a dead heat. There are some leaked exit polls numbers showing both candidates ahead, but they both agree that the race is in the 4-6 point range. Exit polls are not reliable, especially this early in the day. The older voters have all voted, while working people are stuck in traffic. I don't know who will win, but I am guessing it will be very close.

This Could Be a Nailbiter | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 1)

If Obama dominated the African-American vote to that degree - and the AA vote breaks 20% - he has a real shot of winning.

by PsiFighter37 on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:47:24 PM EST

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 1)

Big ifs, though, I fear. I'd love to think he could pull it out, but I don't see it. But maybe the real exit polls will change my mind once the polls close.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

exactly.

by BooMan on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:52:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

How high a percentage of the primary electorate do blacks usually make up? Or is that really impossible to say, relative to this evening, because of Penn not usually mattering?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:57:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (4.00 / 2)

My opinion, given from halfway across the country, offered for free and worth exactly what you paid for it:

The old rules increasingly don't apply anymore. The old observations aren't necessarily going to be indicative of how things are going to go.

I for one welcome our new Twitter overlords. @Omir55

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:02:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

point well made - exit polls are unreliable until voting ends.

this is an unusual high turn-out and who's managing the count?

comes to mind 2004 - Kerry. 2008 - Ohio in a certain county where Obama should have done extremely well.

but that said we're having fun killing time 'til 9:00 PM

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:10:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

Oh, I quite agree. Especially with Obama's organizing capabilities, the old rules are shit. I'm just trying to figure the reasonable parameters.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:10:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

I don't have exit polls for any primaries.

So, all I can do is look at 2004 and they showed 14% for the general election.

What percentage of Kerry voters were black? Do the math. 84% of black voters voted for Kerry and they made up 14% of the electorate. Kerry had 2,938,095 votes. Bush had 2,793,847 votes. Combined votes: 5,731,942.

by BooMan on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:16:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

My rough estimate is that Kerry got about 866,000 black voters, or 33% of his total. Is my math off? It often is.

by BooMan on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:21:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

I get 23% of Kerry's total, or about 670,000 votes?

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

14% of voters today were black, so the polls had it about right, towards the low end.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:41:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

Obama by 2

The difference between theists and atheists is that the atheists don't set the theists on fire for refusing to agree with them.

by KNUCKLEHEAD on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:49:33 PM EST

your lips to god's ears... (none / 0)

a win here after being 20+ pts down would be BIG

the revolution will not be televised...

by dada on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:54:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: your lips to god's ears... (none / 0)

coul be that's why Obama lowered expectations - then a win would be an upset, no matter how it's sliced and diced.

I'll be crushed if Clinton ends with a 10-pt margin.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:13:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

I agree. I think PPP is going to be right. SUSA is good but not great.

by hopeful08 on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:56:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

I'll take the nail-biter. I'll be crushed if it's a 10-point spread.

If Obama comes close, expect to hear Ed, Geraldine, Bob Johnson offer up the race card, it's because of who he is and (sob, sob,) "we're out spent."

How about out-campaigned with those DVDs! WOW.

And those undecided super-Ds should ask themselves
Why does Scaife, Rush, Novak, Rove, Clouter and Pat Buchanan want to have the Clintons back?

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:53:23 PM EST

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

Am hearing about Machine problems. Any info?

by billjpa (billjpa@aol.com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 06:59:58 PM EST

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

Voting at my Montco poll has gone at a brisk clip all day, with lots of new voters, lots of Democratic voters (more than usual!), and when I left for a quick dinner break, there was a line snaking around the voting room and beginning to form out the door! This is VERY unusual for us; a Republican committeewoman called it a "historic event"!

I've also had people approaching me (as a Dem municipal chair and committeewoman) to get more involved. Also new and notable!

I can't help thinking this all will be good for Obama, and I'm thinking this vote could be VERY close.

by fudgelady on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:10:15 PM EST

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

It will also be great for the down ticket candidates in November!!!

Doing My Part For The Left

by refinish69 (refinish69 at gmail dot com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:12:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 1)

Yeah, I'll remain a skeptic because I don't think the MSM exit polls the rural areas very well. Those early exit polls would conform to Al Giordano's prediction, but all they do for me is make me think at least the odds are good now that it'll be a single digit victory for Clinton, so despite the post election spin, Obama continues to be the Democratic nominee, just like I said he was after Wisconsin.

Nice work you're doing on all this, BooMan... thanks for the added effort!

- Kev - 'Don't question authority. Assume authority.'

by KevinHayden on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:13:11 PM EST

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

Philly.com reporting calls for extended voting hours due to broken machines, request for paper ballots. Judge rejects

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:20:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 1)

Why does everybody keep freakin' saying that Clinton won Texas? OBAMA WON TEXAS! GET IT STRAIGHT!!

I for one welcome our new Twitter overlords. @Omir55

by Omir the Storyteller (omir.the.storyteller -CAT- gmail -DOG- com) on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 07:25:52 PM EST

Re: This Could Be a Nailbiter (none / 0)

Montco's Area 4 (Collegeville, Limerick, Lower Providence, Royersford, Skippack, Trappe, Upper Providence, West Norriton and Worcester) totals: Hillary 55 percent, Barack 44 percent.

Obama won Collegeville (home of Ursinus College Dems).

In case anyone wants to know...

by fudgelady on Tue Apr 22nd, 2008 at 11:32:35 PM EST

This Could Be a Nailbiter | 23 comments (23 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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