Booman Tribune ~ A Progressive Community

Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC

by BooMan
Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:12:11 PM EST

Obama now has a 23% lead in North Carolina. Not too surprisingly, the black community is increasingly unimpressed with the Clinton campaign.

Obama leads 86% to 9% among African-American voters. Clinton holds a 47% to 38% advantage among white voters in the Tar Heel State. A month ago, Obama led by fifty-three points among African-Americans while Clinton led by twenty points among White voters.

A 77% lead within the black community, up from a 53% lead last month? Maybe Harold Ickes should keep up his pitch to superdelegates that Obama can't win because he's black like Jesse Jackson and goes to a black church. It seems to be doing wonders in the superdelegate count and the polls.

Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC | 21 comments (21 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

Of course, polls differ.

by BooMan on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:21:18 PM EST

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

I appreciate your honesty in mentioning that poll, but polls with 42% of undecided... They didn't work very hard to get an answer!

by ClaudeB (boucheclBITBUCKET@gmail.com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 12:30:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

39% undecided in this primary? Not a chance. Maybe softish support, but you'd have to live in another solar system to not have an opinion on this contest.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 11:27:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

Maybe this has happened before and I missed it, but I'm thinking this is the first overt effort on Hillary Clinton's part to actually ask specific pledged delegates to switch to her from Obama.

Hillary Clinton Asks Obama Pledged Delegates In North Dakota To Switch

Anyway, thank you North Carolina!

by Renee in Ohio on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:24:45 PM EST

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

I don't think it is the first time, but it probably was the most explicit.

by BooMan on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:26:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

Actually, I think you are right. Asking specific pledged delegates? Yeah, I think that was the first time.

by BooMan on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:27:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

In case it wasn't clear, by "specific" delegates I meant a specific group (those in North Dakota) rather than individual delegates.

Just trying to be careful not to "pull a Hillary"...

by Renee in Ohio on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:36:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

Pretty sure you're safe there, Renee. Just watch out for those imaginary snipers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 10:05:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

But isn't that one of those insignificant states?

Oh, there you are, Perry. -Phineas -SLB-

by boran2 (blogistan@yahoo.com) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:41:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

NC does not count - too many irregular people who know more about the off topic that Ickes won't share.

I'm finding pleasant surprises in Indiana.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:37:57 PM EST

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

Oh? Do tell.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:53:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

Ickes has been using the Rev. Wright flap to persuade super-delegates that Obama can't win the GE.

Here's what Hillary is saying out in Oregon.(HT:Huffpost)

Just Unbelievable:
HRC's quote highlighted:

Obama has been credited with foreseeing a troublesome war in Iraq primarily due to a speech he gave in 2002 while he was a state senator, where he spoke out against the war.
Clinton said, "I started criticizing the war in Iraq before he did. So, I'm well aware that his entire campaign is premised on a speech he gave in 2002 and I give him credit for making that speech. But that was not a decision."

make her go away.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 10:14:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

Oh, no, no, I was curious about what you'd seen regarding Indiana.

She's so full of shit.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 10:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

I'm involved in phone banking the state for registering to vote in the primary, May 6th. Last day to register is April 7...almost like a survey....for leaning undecideds the 3 candidates.

Well, "You can't vote for war and disown the results"

by idredit on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 10:14:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

Maybe her vote for Kyl-Lieberman is the beginning of her opposition to the bombing of Iran.

by Bob In Pacifica on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 10:22:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (4.00 / 2)

Really, all this is going to do is remind people that Obama got it right when she got it wrong. Personally, if my choice is between a candidate who's stupid enough to be "duped" by Junior and a candidate who's not, I'll take the latter.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 11:15:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

I don't for a moment believe that she was duped...she was simply willing to sacrifice a million Iraqis and thousands of Americans on the Altar of Personal Ambition. Everything she's done since (Kyl-Lieberman etc.)has fortified that impression.

by Cabaret Voltaire on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 02:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 1)

38%. Better. Come on, North Carolina white people. Break that 50% threshold for Obama. Join Virginia and Georgia in showing that we're not all a bunch of alligator-wrestlin' bigots down here.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 09:49:36 PM EST

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (4.00 / 2)

If they would ever poll this white woman in NC, the poll threshold might be broken. But, I've only got a cell phone so I'll just be a stealth voter and part of the surprise numbers on primary night.

by sjct on Sat Apr 5th, 2008 at 11:39:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

I'm pretty surprised that Clinton's presumed margins in the more conservative, white, Scotch-Irish Appalachian part of the state aren't hurting him more. My guess (baseless) is that in NC those voters have finally become Republicans, and so aren't voting in the Democratic primary.

by Addison on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 01:11:13 AM EST

Re: Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC (none / 0)

The portion of NC that's in Appalachia has some towns with a bit of a Yuppie feel to them, though, and Yuppies are a definite Obama demographic. Asheville comes to mind. And they're fairly diverse. The magic numbers for Obama seem to be areas having black populations above 20% or below 5%, and some of those areas qualify, or come close to it. And beyond those towns, there simply aren't that many people in the region. Many more are on the Piedmont Plateau, where Obama did very well in Georgia, Virginia and South Carolina.

I think he's likely to do well in the middle of the state. Charlotte, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, Winston-Salem/Greensboro, etc. He'll do well with whitefolk in those cities, and he'll hold enough of the white vote outside of those (eg, Asheville in Appalachia, Rocky Mount on the coastal plain) to carry the day with black folks and Latinos. (Last I looked, Latinos had flipped and we going two-to-one for Obama after the Richardson endorsements, and they're not an insignificant demographic there.)

If he's going to take over 40% of the white vote, then Clinton has no chance. (I think it's entirely conceivable that he gets closer to 50% of it.) And that makes sense. North Carolina is more like Virginia and Georgia than South Carolina and Alabama. It's one of those fast-changing southern states that seems to have stumbled into pretty good times (even with the water shortages in Atlanta and Charlotte), at least within its population centers.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to you country.

by Drew J Jones (blahblahblah@blahblahblah.com) on Sun Apr 6th, 2008 at 11:22:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama Opens Huge Lead in NC | 21 comments (21 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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